"The 72 hours that decide the war" - 5-point proposal from China–Pakistan for Iran, sovereignty move by IRGC in Hormuz

Although US and Iranian officials speak of cautious optimism and minor progress in negotiations, momentum toward an agreement is estimated to be delivered within the next 72 hours in Beijing. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, will visit China starting tomorrow, May 23 (until May 26), where he will hold critical meetings with the Chinese leadership, with reports indicating that the two countries will reintroduce an initiative to end the US–Iran war. It is noted that since last March, China and Pakistan have presented a 5-point proposal, while during his recent meeting with Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a clear message to the US, pointing out that a new military operation against Iran would be unacceptable and that a complete cessation of hostilities in the Middle East brooks no further delay. Beyond the critical contacts in Beijing, however, there are other signs of optimism. On one hand, the Al Arabiya network—following its preferred tactic over the last several days—reveals that the announcement of the final draft of a potential agreement is a matter of hours; on the other hand, the movement of the Revolutionary Guards to "open" Hormuz reflects this trend, as it is reported that 35 vessels crossed the Strait over the past 24 hours following coordination and authorization from the IRGC Navy. This is yet another development demonstrating who truly controls Hormuz. At the same time, an official from the United Arab Emirates estimates that there is a "50-50" chance of an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

China supports Pakistan

Tahir Andrabi, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, stated that China supports Pakistan's mediation efforts and that the two countries have jointly presented a five-point initiative aimed at ending the war in the Middle East and the Gulf. As he noted, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, who will visit China from May 23 to May 26, will hold talks with both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Qiang, with whom he will discuss, among other issues, the latest developments in the war in Iran.

The 5-point proposal

According to official announcements from China and Pakistan, the initiative includes:

1. Immediate cessation of hostilities

2. Commencement of peace talks as soon as possible

3. Protection of civilians and non-military infrastructure

4. Protection of maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz

5. Support for a peace framework under the UN Charter and international law As Andrabi noted, the talks will focus on coordinating efforts for a diplomatic solution and promoting the joint peace initiative. Reports suggest that Beijing views Islamabad as a mediator capable of facilitating peaceful dialogue between the involved parties. It is recalled that the joint 5-point initiative was officially announced in Beijing on March 31, following a meeting between the foreign ministers of China and Pakistan.

Continuous consultations

The agenda will feature both the Iran–US war and crisis, alongside coordination for a potential diplomatic exit. Pakistan has undertaken a series of initiatives in recent days to bridge the gap between the US and Iran to secure an initial peace agreement. Characteristically, Pakistan's Minister of Interior, Mohsin Naqvi, met again today, May 22, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to discuss the latest proposals for ending the war. Naqvi held similar talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni.

Al Arabiya: Agreement a matter of hours, the 10 terms

Al Arabiya fields persistence regarding the scenario of an imminent agreement between the US and Iran, despite the fact that Iran rejects this possibility. "The final draft of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, is expected to be announced within the coming hours," Al Arabiya reports, citing regional intelligence sources.

The 10 core terms

According to the same sources, the 10 core terms of the agreement include the following: An immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire across all fronts, including land, sea, and air. Mutual commitment to the non-targeting of military, civilian, or economic infrastructure. Termination of military operations and a cessation of the communication/media war. Commitments to respect sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in internal affairs. Guarantees for freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. A joint mechanism for monitoring implementation and resolving disputes. Negotiations on outstanding issues will commence within seven days. Gradual lifting of US sanctions in exchange for Iran's commitment to the terms of the agreement. The draft agreement reaffirms compliance with international law and the Charter of the United Nations. The agreement will enter into force as soon as it is officially announced by both sides.

Show of force by the IRGC: Opened the Strait of Hormuz for 35 ships in the last 24 hours

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC Navy) announced that 35 vessels—including oil tankers, containerships, and commercial boats—transited the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours following authorization and coordination with Iranian forces. The announcement arrives as Tehran attempts to demonstrate that it retains control over navigation in the strategic passage amid the ongoing Persian Gulf crisis. Yesterday, the IRGC had reported that 31 ships passed through the Strait within a 24-hour window, also under Iranian coordination. International media note that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels, as many shipping companies avoid the area due to conflicts and maritime safety risks. According to Reuters, approximately 125-140 ships transited daily before the crisis, whereas traffic has now dramatically decreased. At the same time, Tehran appears to be implementing a transit control system, prioritizing vessels from countries it considers "friendly," such as China, Russia, India, and Pakistan.

United Arab Emirates: 50-50 chance of agreement on Hormuz

The US and Iran have a "50-50" chance of reaching an agreement that will unblock the Strait of Hormuz, a senior UAE official stated. Presidential Advisor Anwar Gargash urged Tehran not to overestimate its bargaining power in talks during the fragile truce. "Iranian officials have missed many opportunities over the years because there is a tendency to overestimate the cards they hold," Gargash stated at the Globsec Forum in Prague. "I hope they do not do that this time as well."

Shock warning: Even if Hormuz opens today, full restoration of oil flows expected from 2027

Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE's state oil and gas company (ADNOC), stated that even if the crisis in the Middle East ends today, the complete restoration of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz will not be feasible before the first or even the second quarter of 2027. This assessment, considered one of the most pessimistic forecasts by top energy industry executives, highlights the long-term economic repercussions of the US and Israeli war against Iran. According to the International Energy Agency, this crisis—with the Strait of Hormuz nearing a total blockade—has triggered the largest energy crisis in history. Sultan Al Jaber told the Atlantic Council that even if the conflict concludes tomorrow, at least four months will be required to restore 80% of the pre-crisis oil flow, while full restoration is not anticipated before the first or second quarter of 2027. Earlier, Amin Nasser, head of the Saudi energy giant Aramco, had warned that if the situation continues until mid-June, the oil market might not recover even by 2027. Furthermore, Al Jaber, referring to Iran's move to close the Strait of Hormuz, argued that "this is not just an economic problem, but the creation of a dangerous precedent. If we accept that a country can hold hostage the world's most important maritime route, then maritime trade as we know it essentially ends."

Rubio (US Secretary of State): No one will accept tolls in Hormuz – Minor progress with Iran

Holding the position that no country is going to accept tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that there is minor progress in negotiations with Iran. In statements, Rubio, who is in Helsingborg, Sweden, for a NATO meeting, argued that another major issue to be addressed in the negotiations is Iran's stance regarding the Strait of Hormuz. As he said, Iran "is attempting to establish a toll enforcement system" and convince Oman to participate in this mechanism. "There is no country in the world that should accept this," Rubio stated, pointing out that there was "minor progress" in negotiations with Iran. "There has been some minor progress toward an agreement with Iran, but I do not want to exaggerate. There has been a little movement and that is good," Rubio said. "The core principles remain the same: Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon," he noted, adding that the US will have to address the issue of Iran's highly enriched uranium.

Al Jazeera: Indirect negotiations continue

The US and Iran are continuing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan, the Al Jazeera television network reported, citing Iranian media. "Currently, the two sides are exchanging messages and draft texts in an effort to establish a formal basis for an agreement," Al Jazeera claims. It is recalled that Tehran submitted a new proposal to the US this week. According to Iranian descriptions, the proposal largely reiterates terms that Trump had already rejected, including demands for control over the Strait of Hormuz, war damage reparations, lifting of sanctions, unfreezing of assets, and the withdrawal of American military forces.

US and Iran closer, but the gap remains

In the critical arena of negotiations, the US and Iran continue to disagree as they stand firm on their positions regarding two pivotal issues: Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and control over the Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that there were "certain positive signs" in the talks, while President Trump stated that the US will ultimately reclaim Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, which Washington considers intended for the construction of a nuclear weapon—a claim Tehran categorically denies.

Differences narrowing

A senior Iranian source told Reuters that no agreement has been reached but that differences have narrowed, adding that Iran's uranium enrichment and Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz remain key points of contention. Two senior Iranian sources told Reuters prior to Trump's statements that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has ordered that uranium must not be shipped abroad, a position expected to complicate efforts for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian issue even further. Iranian officials state that in the first phase, there must be a complete end to the war on all fronts, while the Americans argue that de-escalation must occur gradually and that this depends on the progress of negotiations. Iran also seeks to extend its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The US and regional countries oppose this, as the Strait is a critical transit point through which more than 30% of the global energy flow passes. Iran demands the return of all its frozen assets. The US wants to retain a portion of them and is also asking Iran to close all its nuclear facilities except for the one in Tehran, and to commit to zero uranium enrichment. The US requests that Iran remove more than 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, which the Iranians refuse to do.

Iran has not responded yet

Iran maintains that it is still reviewing the latest American proposals and will convey its response to the Pakistani mediators. Information indicates that Pakistan's Minister of Interior, Mohsin Naqvi, has been in Tehran for three days attempting to bridge the gap between the negotiating sides. Pakistan's Army Chief, Asim Munir, did not travel to Tehran yesterday, Thursday, May 21, as had been anticipated. Many estimate that Munir will travel to Tehran only when significant structural progress has been achieved.

Politico: Nuclear weapons and Hormuz main causes of disagreement between US and Israel

Regarding the talks with Iran, a senior White House official claimed that the main points of disagreement remain:

1. Non-possession of nuclear weapons

2. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open Goal number one is that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons. Goal number two, the Strait of Hormuz must be open, without tolls, without attacks from Iran... simply the free flow of transport throughout the region. There are certainly other factors to be considered regarding the agreement, but these two are definitely the most important.

Mohamad Elmasry (Analyst): "Positive momentum" - US and Iran seek agreement and light at the end of the tunnel

While the United States and Israel remain divided over the resumption of their war against Iran, it is of particular significance that both Washington and Tehran speak of "some positive momentum," stated Mohamad Elmasry, a professor in the Media Studies program at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. Trump and Netanyahu had a "tense telephone conversation on Tuesday evening," during which Netanyahu stated he desires the resumption of the war against Iran, while Trump was reportedly said to be "remaining far more committed to the diplomatic path," Elmasry told Al Jazeera. This is important, if true, and indicates progress, since "both the Iranians and the Americans say there is at least some positive momentum," suggesting that perhaps "there is light at the end of the tunnel and potentially some of those points of disagreement" between the two sides "could be narrowed," the analyst noted. Iran, for instance, "has managed to establish a significant degree of control" over the Strait of Hormuz, Elmasry stated, adding that "they are in active discussions with Oman to formalize this mechanism." They have also held talks with other countries, including European states, "and it is possible that more and more countries will react reluctantly to the realities established on the ground," Elmasry said, adding that China has "effectively signaled" its intention to pay the administrative fee. If China "aligns with this, then it will be significant and a kind of geopolitical domino effect could be created," Elmasry concluded.

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