Despite the extensive military operation by the United States and Israel in Iran, which resulted in the killing of the 86-year-old ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of senior political, religious and military officials, the Iranian regime, at least in the 48 hours following the first strike, appears to still be standing.
This is also acknowledged by American officials, who, according to Reuters, express skepticism about the likelihood that the operation against Iran will lead to a change of power in the Islamic Republic.
Analysts also point out that the regime in Iran is structured in such a way that its survival does not depend solely on its …leader…
Skepticism
The President of the United States Donald Trump had previously called on Iranians to take power into their own hands following the completion of the American military operation.
“Three American officials, familiar with US intelligence, said there is serious skepticism about whether the battered Iranian opposition will be able to overthrow the system… that has existed since 1979,” Reuters notes.
Did not have a clear picture
The President of the United States Donald Trump “was not particularly inclined” to launch an operation in Iran due to uncertainty about the country’s future and the outcome of the strikes, as reported by the television network NBC News, citing an anonymous national security representative.
According to the same source, he was hesitant because “he did not believe his advisers had given him a sufficiently clear picture of Iran’s future after the war.”
Trump “had his personal doubts,” the network notes.
He was not certain that the strikes would bring the “stable result that was needed.”
Before the operation, the president insisted “on reaching an agreement under which Iran would renounce nuclear weapons, but with certain additional benefits.”
Wall Street Journal: Netanyahu urged Trump to decapitate the regime
Allies of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, particularly the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, had for months urged the American leader to “decapitate the regime” in Iran, according to the newspaper Wall Street Journal, citing sources.
“For several months, Trump’s allies, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Republican lawmakers, were telling him that the Iranian government is at its weakest point in history and encouraging him to seize a once-in-a-generation opportunity to decapitate the regime,” the newspaper’s article states.
The fall of the regime is not likely
At the same time, American officials did not rule out the possibility of a “fall” of power in the Islamic Republic, but noted that such a scenario is distant and not foreseen in the immediate future.
“In recent weeks, however, senior American officials have grown increasingly pessimistic that any opposition leader backed by Washington will actually be able to control the country,” the media note.
Do not expect collapse
Despite the shock from the assassination of Khamenei, analysts estimate that an immediate collapse of the regime should not be expected.
Iran’s political system, they said, was deliberately constructed so as not to depend on a single leader, dispersing power among clerical structures, the security apparatus and networks of influence.
“The Iranian system is bigger than one man, the removal of Khamenei could harden the regime rather than weaken it,” said Danny Citrinowicz of the Atlantic Council.
Built to withstand the loss of a leader
“Iran was built to withstand the loss of a leader,” added Ali Hashem, research fellow at Royal Holloway, University of London.
“The risk is not a vacuum.
It is whether war and pressure will push the system beyond the point at which that resilience is maintained.”
Barometer… the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
At the center of this resilience lies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), long regarded as the real center of gravity of Iran.
The balance of power now depends on whether the Guards will emerge weakened by battlefield losses and internal frictions, or more entrenched, rallying around a more security-focused form of governance.
“The real question is whether the death of Khamenei will knock the wind out of the IRGC, the force that essentially runs Iran, or whether it will harden them,” said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
“If lower-level officials decide there is no future here, I am not sure even the Guards can keep the regime united.”
Who will decide
Regional officials say the Guards are unlikely to change ideologically because their identity and mandate are based on protecting the revolution.
But they are capable of tactical evolution if the system requires it.
“They could evolve into a less hardline force… there are mid-level members who are pragmatic and open to reducing tensions with the United States if necessary for the system’s survival,” a regional official said.
This conditional pragmatism makes the IRGC both the shield of the system and its key indicator.
This is the second time we negotiated with the Americans, and they decided to attack us right in the middle of the negotiation.
Change
Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said that Washington and Israel appear to be pursuing a strategy aimed not only at degrading Iran’s military capabilities, but also at disrupting the regime itself by removing the top leadership and testing the loyalty of lower-ranking officials.
The success of this approach, he said, will ultimately depend on whether the security forces stand by or defect if popular unrest reignites.
Officials say Tehran’s main priority is projecting continuity.
Operationally, Iran’s administrative structure continues to function, albeit under heavy pressure.
Missile forces, air defenses and top commanders have been hit, but the system so far has endured.
The 3 tests
Iran now faces three intersecting tests, officials say: whether the security state can withstand sustained fire, whether the besieged elite can agree on a successor or turn to a new governing formula, and whether a restless public can push the crisis toward a deeper political rupture.
Veteran Iranian politician Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, announced on Sunday that a temporary leadership council will oversee the transitional period following the death of Khamenei.
Figures such as Larijani and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of parliament, are seen as “possible bridges” in such a phase, reflecting a pragmatic balanced approach.
Politically, Iran faces a succession process it has managed only once before, and then under far more stable conditions.
The constitution assigns the task to the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body, but analysts say the pressures of war could push the process toward a more improvised outcome, either a quickly appointed successor or a temporary collective leadership focused on security issues.
The successor
They said Khamenei sought to shape this outcome before his death.
After a 12-day war with Israel in June of the previous year, which targeted him and his inner circle, he appointed preferred successors and ensured that key military posts were filled by deputy commanders.
His preferred candidates included Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i and Hassan Khomeini, a moderate cleric and grandson of the late founder of the Islamic Republic.
But officials say the clerical body may delay selecting Khamenei’s successor for fear that he could be assassinated.
Far from the end
Israel is signaling that the campaign is far from over.
Two sources briefed on the operation said that Israel intends to continue striking political institutional bodies and security entities linked to the regime of Iran, as well as ballistic missile systems and launchers, in an effort to weaken the state and create conditions for regime change.
One source said that Israel wants the campaign to continue at least until Iran’s missile capabilities are destroyed, but fears it may be halted if Washington reaches an agreement with Tehran.
“The objective is very clear: to remove an existential threat to the state of Israel,” Israel’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oren Marmorstein told Reuters in Tel Aviv.
“That threat is the Iranian regime. We have no quarrel with the Iranian people.”
Unknown
A senior official with direct knowledge of joint Israel-United States planning said it is too early to predict what political order may emerge in Iran, noting that the campaign is still at an early stage and outcomes will depend on developments on the ground.
Iranians must take their fate into their own hands, the official said, adding that this may be easier once the United States and Israel achieve “air superiority” over Iran.
Maintaining the pace and intensity of the strikes is considered critical to exploiting cracks within Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after the assassination of senior leaders, the official added, declining to specify what a collapse of governance would look like.
The conflict has also opened new risks.
With foreign military forces operating in Iranian airspace and the state’s repressive capacity under pressure, analysts say unrest could intensify if mass anti-government protests reemerge, increasing the likelihood of defections within the security forces and giving momentum to political figures calling for change.
There are no... successors
In statements, Trump claimed that 48 top Iranian leaders were killed in the first hours of the air campaign, including Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
If a parallel were drawn with political power in the United States, this would amount to the simultaneous killing of the American president, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and many cabinet officials.
For a country like Iran, which has experienced only one leadership succession since the civil war of 1979, this is likely to cause deep upheaval and uncertainty within the chain of command.
On Sunday, the Iranian Foreign Minister admitted in an interview that military units are likely acting independently and without contact with the hierarchy above them, an acknowledgment that even Iranian officials may not be sure who is in charge.
Indeed, Trump himself claimed that among Khamenei’s potential successors, none remains alive…
Only once
The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by the United States and Israel has created a power vacuum at the core of the Iranian regime and triggered the complex process of selecting his successor.
The Islamic Republic has replaced its supreme leader only once since coming to power nearly half a century ago.
Khamenei, who succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, was killed without an officially declared successor.
On Sunday, a three-member council was formed to temporarily exercise power until a new supreme leader is selected. However, with ongoing United States-Israel raids, there is no indication how long this process will last.
Who is exercising power right now?
According to Iran’s Constitution, a three-member leadership council exercises authority until a new supreme leader is appointed.
The council includes the moderate president Masoud Pezeshkian, the hardline head of the judiciary Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and a senior cleric, Alireza Arafi.
The powerful president of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the regime “had prepared for these moments” and “had planned for all scenarios.” “With the creation of the leadership council, unimaginable authority and cohesion will be formed,” he said.
However, what may not have been planned was the simultaneous loss of many top officials.
Israel claims that the “majority” of Iran’s top military leaders were killed in Saturday’s raids, including the chief of staff of the armed forces Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards Maj. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour and the secretary of the Defense Council Ali Shamkhani.
When Khomeini died in 1989, it took less than a day to appoint Khamenei as his successor, without requiring a transition council. With ongoing raids, the selection of Khamenei’s successor will take longer.
Until then, the interim council must decide whether to continue delegating defense decisions to Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official, and Ghalibaf. Both had assumed Iran’s military leadership during the 12-day war with Israel in June, along with Shamkhani, a former admiral who was killed in Saturday’s raids.
Who selects the new leader?
A body of 88 senior clerics, the Assembly of Experts, will select Khamenei’s successor.
Members of the Assembly of Experts are elected by the Iranian people every eight years and are vetted by the Guardian Council, a separate body of 12 jurists that oversees the activities of Iran’s parliament.
The Guardian Council decides whether parliamentary laws comply with sharia and often requires amendments. It also approves candidates for parliament, the presidency and the Assembly of Experts.
It is known to disqualify presidential candidates.
Before the 2021 elections, the council barred more than 600 candidates, including all women and senior officials such as Larijani.
Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said the Assembly of Experts may not convene until the United States and Israel reduce their attacks, “they cannot risk further losses and damage to the institution.”
Who are the candidates?
Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba, is a significant figure with strong ties to the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force. However, the Iranian regime may wish to avoid succession from father to son.
Alireza Arafi, a cleric appointed to the transition council, held several senior posts under Khamenei and is considered a strong candidate. He is vice president of the Assembly of Experts and a member of the Guardian Council, therefore he can vet his own name. He is also head of Iran’s seminary.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, representing the conservative wing, and Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Khomeini, are other candidates.
There is, however, the possibility of a surprise, with the selection of a younger or lesser-known figure or a council of leaders instead of a single individual.
What about regime change?
Donald Trump called on Iranians to overthrow the government: “When we are finished, take the government into your own hands. It will be yours. This may be your only chance for generations.” He also called on the Revolutionary Guards to lay down their arms or “face certain death.”
So far, despite some celebrations, there are no clear signs that Iranians are taking to the streets to overthrow the remaining regime, nor indications of defections from the security elites. Trump said there are “some good candidates,” without naming them.
Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the deposed Shah of Iran, appears as a potential next leader.
He was only 16 when the 1979 revolution overthrew his father and he lives in the United States. Some commentators believe he would have the support of Israel.
One problem, however, is that there is no alternative force ready to take power, according to David Petraeus, retired US general and former director of the CIA.
How is power exercised today?
With much of Iran’s leadership decapitated, power is likely exercised behind the scenes by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has increasingly underpinned the regime. Answering only to the supreme leader, the IRGC is tasked not only with confronting external enemies but also with maintaining order internally.
The power of the IRGC extends beyond the military field. Many of Iran’s economic actors who benefited from access to the regime maintain influence within the IRGC. They may have significant influence in appointing the new supreme leader.
The IRGC, as its name suggests, exists to “guard” the Islamic Revolution and the regime it created. Today it numbers 150,000 to 190,000 soldiers with army, navy, air force and intelligence branches and is involved in the country’s economy.
Although many senior leaders are reported to have been killed in the raids, the IRGC still oversees the Basij, which operates like a police force, visible, at street level and internally.
The Basij, a volunteer force recruiting members from across the country, often from poorer and more conservative strata, is tasked with supporting the regime internally and enforcing Islamic morality.
Faced with its greatest crisis, the Iranian regime “is moving quickly behind the scenes to avoid fragmentation and signal continuity,” according to Vakil of Chatham House. It remains to be seen whether these efforts will succeed.
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