Target price increases between 16% and 23% from the U.S. investment bank – The strengths and weaknesses of each Greek bank.
Jefferies is setting a lower bar for the nine-month results of Piraeus Financial Holdings, National Bank of Greece (NBG), and Eurobank in terms of net interest income (NII), while at the same time raising the target prices of their shares.
Specifically, in its October 24 reports, the U.S. investment bank increases earnings per share (EPS) estimates by just 2% for 2026–2027, while for the first nine months of 2025, it expects lower NII, strong credit expansion with minor variations between banks, a rise in return on tangible book value (RoTBV) for Eurobank and Piraeus, a solid capital base, and €25 million in impairments per bank due to the school building contribution.
Jefferies notes that it raises EPS projections due to a 2% ECB rate applied across all three banks (up from 1.75% previously) but slightly downgrades credit expansion, which continues to grow at a faster pace than in the rest of Europe (16%), now also including syndicated loans abroad.
Εurobank: Higher loan growth and 15.3% RoTBV
Jefferies forecasts a 23% upside from current levels for Eurobank’s share, with a target price of €4.15.
In Q3, the U.S. house expects the highest RoTBV among Greek banks, at 15.3%.
Net interest income is expected to decline sequentially due to the impact of lower rates, though the loan growth will offset the drop.
Fee income is also estimated slightly lower (reflecting normalized contribution from the CNP insurance unit), but remains within full-year guidance, as do costs.
In Q3, net loan expansion is seen at €900 million, down from €1 billion in Q2.
Support will also come from the bond portfolio.
On deposit costs, interest expenses are expected lower, with repricing providing a benefit.
The CET1 ratio is estimated at 15.1%, excluding relief from NPE securitizations.
Organic earnings are forecast at 60 basis points, offset by a 50% dividend payout and deferred tax amortization.
Piraeus Bank: €8.30 target price and €700 million net credit expansion
For Piraeus Financial Holdings, Jefferies estimates net interest income will be slightly lower, as higher average loan balances are offset by lower loan yields due to rate reductions, partly balanced by a greater contribution from bonds and equities portfolios.
Net credit expansion is expected at €700 million, versus €1.1 billion in Q2.
This puts nine-month loan growth below €3 billion, compared to the bank’s full-year guidance of over €3 billion.
RoTBV for Q3 is projected at 14.4%, versus a 14% target.
Fee income is expected to rise in bancassurance, asset management, and lending.
Impairments are expected in line with Q2, at €45 million.
Jefferies anticipates a 2% EPS increase, a CET1 ratio of 14.4%, while organic capital generation is partly offset by higher RWAs, 50% dividend accrual, and deferred tax amortization of 10 basis points.
The target price for Piraeus is set at €8.30, implying a 16% upside from the October 24 closing price.
National Bank of Greece: To distribute 60% of profits
Jefferies projects a 20% upside for National Bank of Greece (NBG), setting a target price of €15.50 (up from €13.55 previously).
Positive trends are expected to continue in Q3, with NII slightly lower due to delayed asset repricing and a milder quarter in credit expansion.
Loan growth is estimated at €300 million, down from €900 million in Q2, with a stronger rebound expected in Q4.
For full-year 2025, credit expansion is projected at €2.7 billion.
The upward momentum in fees (which rose 66% in H1) will continue, as NBG gains market share, while trading income will contribute marginally.
The cost-to-income ratio will rise slightly, with operating expenses at €227 million.
Once again, capital remains NBG’s strongest asset.
The CET1 ratio is expected to rise by 10 basis points to 19%.
Profit generation will improve by 80 basis points, partly offset by higher RWA risk.
For NBG, the dividend payout ratio climbs to 60%, up 40 basis points, while deferred tax amortization is estimated at 15 basis points.
Dimitris Pafilas
dpafilas@yahoo.com
www.bankingnews.gr
Specifically, in its October 24 reports, the U.S. investment bank increases earnings per share (EPS) estimates by just 2% for 2026–2027, while for the first nine months of 2025, it expects lower NII, strong credit expansion with minor variations between banks, a rise in return on tangible book value (RoTBV) for Eurobank and Piraeus, a solid capital base, and €25 million in impairments per bank due to the school building contribution.
Jefferies notes that it raises EPS projections due to a 2% ECB rate applied across all three banks (up from 1.75% previously) but slightly downgrades credit expansion, which continues to grow at a faster pace than in the rest of Europe (16%), now also including syndicated loans abroad.
Εurobank: Higher loan growth and 15.3% RoTBV
Jefferies forecasts a 23% upside from current levels for Eurobank’s share, with a target price of €4.15.
In Q3, the U.S. house expects the highest RoTBV among Greek banks, at 15.3%.
Net interest income is expected to decline sequentially due to the impact of lower rates, though the loan growth will offset the drop.
Fee income is also estimated slightly lower (reflecting normalized contribution from the CNP insurance unit), but remains within full-year guidance, as do costs.
In Q3, net loan expansion is seen at €900 million, down from €1 billion in Q2.
Support will also come from the bond portfolio.
On deposit costs, interest expenses are expected lower, with repricing providing a benefit.
The CET1 ratio is estimated at 15.1%, excluding relief from NPE securitizations.
Organic earnings are forecast at 60 basis points, offset by a 50% dividend payout and deferred tax amortization.
Piraeus Bank: €8.30 target price and €700 million net credit expansion
For Piraeus Financial Holdings, Jefferies estimates net interest income will be slightly lower, as higher average loan balances are offset by lower loan yields due to rate reductions, partly balanced by a greater contribution from bonds and equities portfolios.
Net credit expansion is expected at €700 million, versus €1.1 billion in Q2.
This puts nine-month loan growth below €3 billion, compared to the bank’s full-year guidance of over €3 billion.
RoTBV for Q3 is projected at 14.4%, versus a 14% target.
Fee income is expected to rise in bancassurance, asset management, and lending.
Impairments are expected in line with Q2, at €45 million.
Jefferies anticipates a 2% EPS increase, a CET1 ratio of 14.4%, while organic capital generation is partly offset by higher RWAs, 50% dividend accrual, and deferred tax amortization of 10 basis points.
The target price for Piraeus is set at €8.30, implying a 16% upside from the October 24 closing price.
National Bank of Greece: To distribute 60% of profits
Jefferies projects a 20% upside for National Bank of Greece (NBG), setting a target price of €15.50 (up from €13.55 previously).
Positive trends are expected to continue in Q3, with NII slightly lower due to delayed asset repricing and a milder quarter in credit expansion.
Loan growth is estimated at €300 million, down from €900 million in Q2, with a stronger rebound expected in Q4.
For full-year 2025, credit expansion is projected at €2.7 billion.
The upward momentum in fees (which rose 66% in H1) will continue, as NBG gains market share, while trading income will contribute marginally.
The cost-to-income ratio will rise slightly, with operating expenses at €227 million.
Once again, capital remains NBG’s strongest asset.
The CET1 ratio is expected to rise by 10 basis points to 19%.
Profit generation will improve by 80 basis points, partly offset by higher RWA risk.
For NBG, the dividend payout ratio climbs to 60%, up 40 basis points, while deferred tax amortization is estimated at 15 basis points.
Dimitris Pafilas
dpafilas@yahoo.com
www.bankingnews.gr
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