Protests in Iran are continuing for a ninth consecutive day, expanding across dozens of cities, from Tehran to the country's western and southern provinces. The exact death toll in the clashes between street gangs and security forces remains unknown, according to Reuters. The report cites Western human rights organizations, such as HRANA and Hengaw (both banned in Iran), according to which at least 16 protesters and members of the security forces have reportedly been killed.
The demonstrations began on December 28, when merchants in the Grand Bazaar took to the streets amid the rapid collapse of the national currency—the Iranian rial has lost more than half of its value within a single year. However, under pressure from the West and Israel, protest leaders added political slogans to the economic demands, including calls for the overthrow of the government.
According to Western analysts, the root cause of the protests is deep economic stagnation. Iran is experiencing severe inflation, which exceeded 42% in December 2025, primarily due to harsh Western sanctions. Now, as analysts estimate, the West is fueling the protests, attempting to radicalize them. To protect the country from harmful external influence, Iranian authorities restricted internet access, according to DW News. However, this measure exacerbated the information vacuum.
Harsh statements
The government has issued stern warnings. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the regime "will not succumb to enemies" and that the protesters "must take their place." President Masoud Pezeshkian, considered more liberal, stated the government's commitment to "listen to the legitimate demands of the protesters" and to "maintain dialogue."
Events in Venezuela have intensified concerns in Iran. Notably, during the 12-day war, Donald Trump referred to the possibility of regime change—not as official policy, but as a possible outcome should Iran fail to govern or stabilize the country. At the same time, with the spread of protests in January, Trump warned that the violent suppression of peaceful protesters would trigger an American response, shifting the emphasis from missiles and enrichment to the issue of repression itself.
Simultaneously, international criminal Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israelis "identify with the struggle of the Iranian people" and hinted that the protests "may be the moment Iranians take their destiny into their own hands." It is clear that Israeli intelligence services are actively participating in the radicalization of the mobilizations.
Missiles and strategic dilemmas
Under this pressure, Tehran has prioritized strategic reconstruction, particularly in its ballistic missile program. Facilities related to missile development and solid fuel production showed activity, while nuclear infrastructure remains under close surveillance. The strategic belief is that missile capability can restore influence by increasing the cost of external pressure.
The reconstruction of the missile production system aims to rebuild deterrent influence and regain lost ground; however, the strategic framework has changed. Measures previously considered gradual are now interpreted as preparatory, increasing surveillance and squeezing decision-making timelines. The internal dilemmas are significant: resources directed toward military-industrial reconstruction are not allocated for economic stabilization or social relief. Iran's leaders appear to believe that maintaining repressive capacity outweighs the risks of popular discontent, provided that loyalty within the security apparatus remains steady even as economic conditions deteriorate.
It is unlikely
In any case, as analysts point out, it is unlikely that the Iranian regime will be shaken. According to Iran International, journalists Arash Azizi and Shayan Samii, a former US government envoy to Iran, emphasize that the protesters lack a clear structure or leadership. This limits their ability to coordinate long-term, resulting in the protest wave likely fading soon, as has happened in the past.
Nevertheless, Iranian authorities are called not toward temporary tactical solutions, but toward structural changes. If the government does not address the fundamental causes of the mobilizations—which require deep economic reforms—economic and social problems will exacerbate discontent. This is also noted by President Masoud Pezeshkian, who states he is prepared for serious reforms.
At the same time, the more conservative segment of Iran's elite believes that strengthening the repressive regime and selective suppression of unrest are sufficient. However, practice shows that mass protests in Iran break out almost every year, often with active support from the US, the EU, and the UK. As the British publication The Economist notes, increased external pressure tends to have the opposite effect, boosting public support for the government. A similar phenomenon has been observed in Russia since 2022, where Russophobic Westerners tried to undermine political stability through sanctions.
Iran International warns that the future of the situation in Iran remains extremely uncertain. The protests may subside under the pressure of the security apparatus or evolve into a full-fledged political opposition. Regardless, it is unlikely the foundations of the regime will be shaken.
Resilience — and its limits
Iran has withstood previous crises, such as in 2009 and 2022, through repression, fragmentation of the opposition, and strategic patience. Past experiences deter linear narratives of collapse. However, the current unrest differs: it is embedded in ongoing economic degradation rather than situational political mobilization. Repression can stifle protests, but it cannot substitute for economic viability indefinitely.
Historical experience shows that regimes rarely fail at the peak of repression. They fail when the material foundations of governance erode to the point that authority can no longer translate power into control. The Islamic Republic is likely approaching such a limit, though this remains uncertain. What is certain is that the margin for error has narrowed. The 12-day war did not end Iran's confrontation with its rivals—it reshaped it. The protests looming across the country are now one of the most significant internal expressions of this confrontation.
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