Dystopian forecast from exiled Russian magnate: Prepare for a 10-year cold war with Russia

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Russian magnate and former head of Yukos, made a dystopian prediction, warning Europe of a 10-year Cold War with Russia, regardless of how the war in Ukraine develops.

"We must expect a new Cold War that will last at least ten years," former oil magnate Khodorkovsky predicted this week at a private event in Brussels. According to the exiled businessman, the only deterrent against further Russian aggression against Europe in the next decade will be President Vladimir Putin's conviction that the West constitutes a credible military threat.

From the Cold War to hybrid warfare

During the Cold War, which lasted almost half a century, the Soviet Union and the West sought to undermine each other without risking open conflict in Europe or a potential nuclear war. Today, leading European and NATO officials argue that Russia is reviving the policy of attrition, using "hybrid warfare" tactics to destabilize the West and sow discord. Khodorkovsky, who spent ten years in Putin's Russian prisons and now lives in London, downplayed the effectiveness of Western sanctions in influencing the Kremlin, saying they "cause some pressure on the Russian economy, but nothing dramatic." He appeared equally skeptical about Ukraine's long-running drone campaign against Russian refineries, questioning whether it can paralyze the Russian war machine. "Even the most powerful drone, even a Tomahawk missile, can hit two hectares at most," explained Khodorkovsky, former owner of the Yukos oil company and once Russia's richest man.

"A typical complex in Siberia usually spans 1,500 hectares. The damage caused is like stepping on someone's foot," he added.

In reality, Khodorkovsky argued, the only time Putin's power could realistically be shaken was in the first two years after the start of the full-scale invasion—if Russia had suffered a decisive military defeat in Ukraine. That "window," he said, has now closed. However, he added with an ironic smile, "we have a tradition [ in Russia ] where our dictators usually step down between the ages of 70 and 80."

Putin turned 73 in October.

Pressure from Putin

Last month, Russian authorities filed new criminal charges against Khodorkovsky, accusing him of leading a "terrorist organization" and plotting a violent overthrow with the help of Ukrainian paramilitaries. In its announcement, the Federal Security Service (FSB) also included 22 other individuals linked to the "Russian Antiwar Committee," a group of opposition Russians in exile. Some of them have already served prison sentences in Russia or are threatened with prosecution for their political activity, while academics and businessmen are also included on the list.

Khodorkovsky himself had spent a decade in a Siberian penal colony before being pardoned in 2013—in a landmark case that was widely seen as the opening act of Putin's campaign to crush dissent. Although the case focused on tax and economic offenses and led to the expropriation of Yukos, it was primarily treated as a political message to Kremlin critics. The new charges against Khodorkovsky and his allies came just two weeks after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe decided to create a "dialogue platform" with Russian democratic opposition forces.

Speaking in Brussels, Khodorkovsky said the Kremlin's strong reaction shows "how anxious Putin is with the idea that Russian democratic forces are gaining legitimacy, even symbolically." Although those named by the FSB already live abroad and are outside the Kremlin's direct legal reach, several have reported problems with European banks and fears that the terrorism charges may make their travel more difficult, due to the risk of extradition to Russia.

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