The largest ND losses are observed toward the Samaras party (11.7%), Voice of Reason (7.6%), Greek Solution (4.8%), Symmachia Ellinon...
Indeed, the poll revealed yesterday 5.11 by bankingnews.gr was disruptive but also representative of public mood. That is why we also received a wave of reactions and phone calls from political circles. Let us perform a second reading of what was reported:
ND slump
First of all, we observe that New Democracy is experiencing a collapse without room for recovery—something confirming recent BN reporting regarding concern by Th. Livanios who analyzes public polling data for the ruling party. The causes are numerous; however, we will note the fatigue of years in government, high living costs, and the energy crisis. Let us not forget that in the US as well, the latter two were significant criteria when people voted for the Democrats. The novel element is that this specific poll shows that in vote estimation, ND moves around 25% with an upper limit of 25.4%. A primary explanation is simple: if the creation of the new Samaras party is announced, then ND cannot receive 29-30% in vote estimation (as shown in other polls). In conclusion, ND will fight to capture the 25% threshold that yields the seat bonus, altering Greek parliamentary bonus calculations.
ND losses to Samaras, Latinopoulou, and... Kasidiaris
In Nikolaos Kardoulas' poll, voter shifts are characteristic. Almost 1 in 2 voters who supported ND in 2023 will vote for it again. The largest losses for ND are observed toward the Samaras party (11.7%), Voice of Reason (7.6%), Greek Solution (4.8%), and Symmachia Ellinon. Another highly significant finding is that the core of voters for the Samaras party, the Latinopoulou party, and undecided voters originates from New Democracy, while at 21% they also form the voter base of Symmachia Ellinon. Consequently, Ilias Kasidiaris is also drawing voters who supported ND at some point. Another critical element reveals that ND leads in all age groups except 17-24, where the top party is Symmachia Ellinon supported by Ilias Kasidiaris; as a continuation of this data point, ND leads across all occupational categories except the unemployed and students, impacting Greek electoral demographics.
We shouldn't have cut ties with Russia, suspicious of Velopoulos
Great interest lies within the specialized questionnaires.
A 72.5% majority considers that we should not have broken ties with Russia, should not have severed relations with Putin, or entered an unnecessary and disadvantageous path of supporting Ukraine with military hardware. The high cost of living and energy crisis currently experienced by Greeks are largely attributed, in their view, to this strategy pursued by the Mitsotakis government. Respondents rank politicians operating within the right-wing spectrum based on their integrity. Here, a key finding is that it ranks Kyriakos Velopoulos lower than Samaras, Latinopoulou, and Kasidiaris. Perhaps the public perceives hidden assistance offered by Velopoulos to the government, whether in cases like wiretapping or the penal code legislation enacted under the A. Tsipras government. Meanwhile, people now realize that the Samaras party will inflict damage on ND—whether minor or extensive, it will prove critical and decisive. The overarching conclusion remains that we are heading toward severe fragmentation with 10 parties in Parliament, leaving a two-party or even three-party coalition as the only viable government scenario, reshaping Greek coalition prospects.
Sotiris Pikoulas
www.bankingnews.gr
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