Balkan bargain exposed: how Orban rescued Serbia and Serbo Russian friendship after Vucic paid a heavy price to the Trump family

A deal that resembles a geopolitical Balkan bazaar and a Jaroslav Hašek style scenario, where a Hungarian saves the friendship between Russians and Serbs, has been unfolding in recent days.
It is the “deal” through which the Hungarian company MOL acquires from Russia’s Gazprom the majority stake in the Serbian oil empire NIS.
The legally binding agreement was signed this week and, if the transfer is completed in March, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, will finally be able to breathe a sigh of relief: he escaped once again.

Background

NIS (Oil Industry of Serbia) is not just a company, it is the energy pillar of the Balkans, with the jewel of the refinery in Pančevo.
Since 2008, Gazprom held 51%, constituting the country’s main taxpayer.
However, in early 2025, Joe Biden, shortly before exiting the stage, imposed crushing sanctions on NIS under the pretext of Russian participation, indifferent to whether this would plunge the Serbian economy into darkness.
He wanted one last blow against Russia, leaving the “hot potato” to Donald Trump.

What Trump wanted: to break Serbo Russian friendship in a certain way

Trump, although he repeatedly postponed the date for the sanctions to take effect, did not do so out of love for the Serbs, not at all.
Vucic had to give land and water, warning of “fuel for only one week”, while Washington was pushing for the violent nationalization of the company, something that would have blown up Belgrade Moscow relations, as Russia does not accept giving away its assets.

At this point Viktor Orban appeared

With the blessings of the United Arab Emirates, through ADNOC, which provided the capital, Hungary managed to acquire a precious energy treasure.
Orban is cashing in on his far sighted policy, as Trump granted him a special exemption for energy transactions with Russia.
However, the price for Serbia is humiliating.
To appease “Uncle Sam”, Vucic was forced to grant Trump’s son the complex of the former General Staff in Belgrade, a symbol that Serbs wanted to preserve as a monument against NATO aggression, so that a luxury hotel could be built there.
The deal carries the familiar, unpleasant taste of American capitalism: blackmail, racketeering, and aggressive acquisition.
Whether under Biden or Trump, the United States objective remains unwavering: the complete expulsion of Russia from European energy and the strategic space of the Balkans.
The methods change, the geopolitical suffocation remains the same.

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