The countdown to the May 9th parade in Red Square to celebrate Victory Day in World War II has already begun… Russia and Ukraine are dangerously escalating their rhetoric and threats. The Ukrainians announced—as expected—that since the Russians violated the ceasefire declared in the early hours of May 6th by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, they also have no intention of observing the May 9th ceasefire. In fact, Kyiv is signaling that it plans to organize a drone flight over Moscow during the parade, which will strike other targets in Russia. This announcement sparked outrage in the Kremlin. The Russians warn that any activity over Moscow will be considered a threat and the response will be clear: we will level Kyiv with Oreshnik and Burevestnik. It is obvious that the next 24 hours are considered extremely dangerous for how the war in Ukraine will evolve without excluding even the most catastrophic scenarios.
Podolyak (Zelensky advisor): Ukrainian drones will fly over Moscow
Kyiv plans to organize a flight of drones over Moscow during the Victory Day Parade, claimed Mikhail Podolyak, head of the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. As he stated, the Ukrainian leadership does not plan to strike the parade itself; however, drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may fly over the parade before continuing toward other targets. "Our drones will fly over Red Square and then continue to bomb Ust-Luga or destroy anything else," Podolyak asserted. It is recalled that in previous statements, Zelensky had threatened a strike against the Victory Parade in Moscow, though he later said Ukrainian drones could simply fly over Moscow.
Zelensky (Ukrainian president): Russia violated the ceasefire
Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia violated the ceasefire that Ukraine had announced on May 6th, while he did not clarify whether Kyiv would observe the ceasefire proposed by Russia for May 8-9. "The Russian army continued active military operations and terrorist bombings again today. Russia's choice is obvious—refusal of the ceasefire and the preservation of human lives. Offensive operations continue at all key points of the front. During the night, the Russian army carried out attacks with various types of drones. There were also missile strikes. For today, we find that the Russian side violated the ceasefire regime. Based on the evening reports from our military and intelligence services, we will decide on further actions," Zelensky stated in a post.
Message from Ukraine: We will not observe any ceasefire - The Russians are to blame...
The intentions of Ukraine were clarified early on by Sergey Sternenko, an advisor to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense. As he said, Ukraine is not going to observe the ceasefire with Russia on May 9th. "The Russians violated the ceasefire regime and carried out a series of attacks against Ukraine. These actions nullify the May 9th ceasefire announced by Putin," Sternenko emphasized, while the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, also accused Russia of violating the cessation of fire. According to him, the Russian Armed Forces carried out attacks throughout the night and morning. "Moscow has once again ignored the realistic and fair call for a cessation of military actions," Sybiha stated. According to Sybiha, Russian strikes continued all night on May 6th—the Russian armed forces attacked Ukraine with 108 drones and three missiles. "Strana.ua" reported strikes in Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kherson, and Sumy. At the same time, the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that the attacks began even before the ceasefire regime announced by Zelensky came into effect—on the evening of May 5th. Which strikes took place afterward, the command did not specify.
The ceasefire of Zelensky
It is noted that Zelensky declared a ceasefire starting from midnight on May 6th. "We consider human life incomparably more precious than the 'celebration' of any anniversary. In connection with this, we announce a fire silence regime from 00:00 on the night of May 6th," Zelensky underlined. Nevertheless, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that air defense systems shot down dozens of drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the night of May 5th to 6th. According to the ministry, the target of the attacks was five Russian regions—Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Crimea, and the Moscow region. A total of 53 aerial vehicles were shot down. Ukrainian drones also attacked Crimea shortly before the start of the ceasefire announced by Zelensky. As a result of the attacks, five people were killed. It is also reported that the Ukrainians struck Sevastopol. As the Governor of Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhayev, stated, air defense systems shot down four drones in the area of the village of Verkhnesadovoye and on the north side of the city. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that a total of 53 unmanned aircraft were destroyed over Russian regions and the Black Sea on the night of May 6th.
Premeditated provocation
The first deputy chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, Vladimir Dzhabarov, considers that it was a premeditated provocation. "Let them not invent these versions that they supposedly launched something within a few minutes and we responded after the ceasefire, since Dzhankoy specifically was hit literally a few minutes before the start of the Ukrainian deadline for the ceasefire. It is clear that this is yet another provocation," the Russian senator emphasized, noting that Kyiv has never observed any ceasefire during the conflict. "Even the last Easter ceasefire was violated 6,500 times," Dzhabarov said.
Miroshnik (Russian MFA): Ukraine never keeps its obligations
The Russian MFA's special envoy, Rodion Miroshnik, also noted that Ukraine never keeps its obligations in such humanitarian actions. "Zelensky tried, in response to the Russian initiative for a ceasefire regime during the Victory Day celebration, to organize a kind of political theater and essentially showed a complete lack of ability, desire, and approach to implementing the statements he made himself," he stated in an interview with TASS.
We didn't understand why…
Dzhabarov also commented on Zelensky's decision to announce a ceasefire from the night of May 6th. The Russian politician recalled that Moscow announced a ceasefire regime in connection with the Victory Day celebration, while it is unclear what rationale Kyiv used for its own decision. "I do not know why he announced a ceasefire regime from May 5th to 6th. We announced it in connection with the celebration of Victory Day on May 8th and 9th. If they violate it, an immediate strike on the center of Kyiv will follow—this was announced by our military command," Vladimir Dzhabarov stated. Military analyst and Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Shalandin also stated that he cannot explain why Ukraine announced a ceasefire from May 6th. In his opinion, it is simply a PR move.
Communication tool
Russian war correspondent Alexander Kots also reported that for Zelensky, the ceasefire is simply a communication tool and that through it, he seeks to trap Moscow. The "Arkhangel Spetsnaz" channel on Telegram, for its part, considers that Zelensky's declaration of a ceasefire from May 6th is a tactical move. "Zelensky's statement on a ceasefire is simply a tactical move, aimed at accusing Russia of violating the cessation of fire," the channel states. Associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, Alexander Konkov, estimated that Zelensky's decision to announce a ceasefire is an attempt to "move preemptively," following Moscow's announcement. Furthermore, according to him, the US is exerting pressure on the Ukrainian president, as "today they are in favor of any ceasefire, any peace, and any reset of the Ukrainian front, as long as Kyiv stops constantly reminding them of its existence."
We will level Kyiv with Oreshnik, Burevestnik
A member of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrey Kolesnik, left open the possibility of using the "Oreshnik" and "Burevestnik" systems in case of provocations on May 9th. "In case of provocation from the side of Ukraine, a strike will be carried out with all available weapons and combat means against the center of Kyiv. If they attempt to ruin the Victory Parade and attack, the response will be terrifying. There they will receive all the drones and all the missiles they constantly ask about. The Oreshnik will lash them and the Burevestnik will devour them," Andrey Kolesnik stated. Russian Senator Dzhabarov also called on Ukraine not to hope that Russia will avoid retaliation in case of attacks during the ceasefire. "If we are struck, we will respond much more strongly and more painfully. The era of jokes, leniency, and 'surgical' actions is over. Now there will be a harsh response and the entire Russian people will support their president in such a decision," Vladimir Dzhabarov stated.
Attack on decision-making centers
Military analyst and retired colonel Viktor Baranets estimated, for his part, that the main strike in case of provocations on May 9th would focus on decision-making centers. "This means the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Verkhovna Rada, Zelensky's bunker," he stated. According to the military analyst, Zelensky realizes that a hypothetical attack on May 9th would provoke a powerful response and therefore he will be hiding carefully—likely in the Lviv region.
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