The establishment in Brussels is breaking - The far-right sweeps the European Parliament - Historic defeat for the center

Developments in Brussels are historic, as the establishment is breaking with the far-right gaining more and more ground, challenging the long-term dominance of centrist forces. Now, the Center cannot stand alone. Everyone realized this on Thursday, when the European People's Party (EPP) — Europe's largest political family, which hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen — abandoned its traditional Centrist allies and proceeded with the support of the far-right to approve the relaxation of environmental rules.

Breaking decades of political protocol, this move signed the "condemnation" of the so-called cordon sanitaire, the informal agreement among Europe's centrist forces — the EPP, the Socialists and Democrats, the Renew Liberals, and the Greens — to keep the far-right out of decision-making. This signals a new era for the Parliament, in which political realism overrides principle, and the EPP cooperates with whomever it needs to get the job done.

Major success for the far-right

At the same time, however, for the far-right, its transformation into a real force constitutes a major success, following months of growing influence on various issues.
"The overall interest won out, but it is also the fruit of our continuously increasing presence here, specifically in the Parliament chamber," said the president of the Patriots, Jordan Bardella of the French National Rally, speaking to Politico after the vote. The Patriots' main negotiator on the issue, Pascale Piera, called the day "historic," as "they have broken Ursula von der Leyen's majority."

"Nail in the coffin"

But for the Liberals, the Centre-Left, and the Greens, this is the "nail in the coffin" of trust among the four centrist groups.
"It's a terrible sign for European majorities, it's terrible for Europe, it's terrible for fighting climate change and protecting child labor, for me it is a very, very bad signal for cooperation over the next four years," Greens co-chair Terry Reintke told Politico after the vote.
The far-right's penetration into the Parliament reflects its widespread advances at a national level across the continent.

The rise in the polls

Far-right political parties are now leading national polls in France, the United Kingdom, and even Germany, where for decades traditional centrists maintained a "wall of protection" to keep extremists out of power and avoid a repeat of 20th-century history.

Von der Leyen's problem

For the Commission President, her political group's tendency to cooperate more with the right side of the Parliament creates complications for her second term.
By playing "hot and cold" with its traditional centrist partners, the EPP risks deepening the rivalry between the institutions. Von der Leyen has already been forced to fend off several challenges to her leadership from the Parliament, including three motions of censure and a threat to collapse the EU budget.
The strengthening of far-right parties that are hostile to the green agenda, a key pillar of her legacy, is also a dangerous game.
Bardella of the Patriots said Thursday's vote signals "a real defeat for punitive ecology and for a de-growth ideology imposed on the minds of several people here in the European Commission, particularly its president."
Von der Leyen's left-leaning allies increasingly see her as responsible for her party's behavior in Parliament and are disappointed by the freedom they believe she has granted them. "Every vote where the EPP goes with the far-right undermines the position that Ursula von der Leyen has," said Reintke of the Greens, adding that since she was elected with a pro-European majority, she should not abandon them. "In the future, I would like to see much greater pressure on the EPP on votes like this."
Valérie Hayer from Renew warned Von der Leyen that her own party is destabilizing her mandate. "Your alliance represents political stability, and political stability is the main source of prosperity for all economies in the world. What your group did today undermines that stability," she stated.

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