ND in a vise of polling attrition: Areas losing ground and fear of fresh right-wing leakage
The endeavor to halt polling attrition and limit losses ahead of the next elections is evolving into an increasingly difficult equation for New Democracy. In the Maximos Mansion and on Piraeus Street, officials have begun mapping performance by electoral constituency with greater care, seeking not only where governing momentum is maintained, but primarily where discontent transforms into a loss of political influence. The emerging picture is not uniform. ND continues to register comparatively stronger performances across parts of Attica, in Crete, and in certain island regions. However, Macedonia and the Peloponnese emerge as zones of heightened pressure, with losses causing concern among the government staff. The problem for the government is not only the retreat of percentages compared to 2023, but also the fact that a segment of its electoral base appears to be seeking alternative political expression.
Attica holds, but is not enough
In Attica, ND maintains a relatively better picture, without this meaning it has overcome attrition. In the survey by Opinion Poll for Action24, it registers at 26.3% in voting intention and 31.5% in vote estimate. This constitutes a performance that allows it to move above the psychological threshold of 30% in the estimate, yet does not negate the distance from the figures of the national elections of 2023. For the Maximos Mansion, the Attica basin remains critical, as it concentrates a large share of the electorate. However, maintaining relative superiority is not sufficient on its own to offset losses across other regions. The government staff is called upon to address issues directly impacting everyday life, led by the cost of living, alongside the perception that government announcements do not always translate into tangible results for households.
Crete: Resilience with asterisks
In Crete, the government considers that it still possesses room to retain first place. A poll by the firm to the point for Chaniotika Nea registered ND at 24.2% in the Regional Unit of Chania, with a lead of 13.1 points over PASOK. However, the percentage of undecided voters, reaching 17.5%, indicates that the picture remains fluid. The government staff knows that political tradition and past electoral performances do not constitute a guarantee for the next contest. Retaining influence now demands convincing answers to local problems rather than merely invoking past results.
Macedonia and Peloponnese
More difficult is the situation in the Peloponnese, as well as across areas of Northern Greece. In Achaea, a poll by Data Consultants conducted in July for the newspaper Peloponnisos recorded ND at 21% in voting intention, with Greek Solution at 18.7% and PASOK at 8.6%. These specific data capture a competitive picture, leaving the governing camp no room for complacency. At the same time, discussions surrounding the potential formation of a party by Antonis Samaras add another factor of uncertainty. Should the scenario take concrete form, it could influence voters moving within the right and center-right spectrum. For now, however, the fallout remains a hypothesis and not a measurable electoral datum.
The... black holes
In Macedonia, comparing the results of the national elections of 2023 with those of the European elections of 2024 had recorded significant losses for ND across many constituencies of Northern Greece. In areas such as Imathia, Pella, Kilkis, B Thessaloniki, Serres, and Drama, Greek Solution strengthened its presence, claiming a share of an electoral audience that had supported ND in the past.
Tours a one-way street
Particularly complex is the case of Western Macedonia, where coal phase-out, employment, demographic shrinking, and access to health services form a difficult environment. The government is called upon to prove that the energy transition is accompanied by sustainable jobs and tangible development prospects. In the coming period, tours by the prime minister, ministers, and party delegations are expected to intensify, with emphasis on areas where ND has distanced itself most from its previous electoral performances. However, visits and announcements are not sufficient unless accompanied by visible solutions to the problems of local communities.
Alarms everywhere
The real wager for ND is whether it can regain the trust of voters who chose it in 2023 and today appear detached or turn to other political choices. Polling attrition does not in itself constitute a forecast for the electoral outcome. It is, however, a warning to the government that past electoral dominance does not automatically guarantee the next contest.
Ο Peiraiarchis
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών