The legislative enactment of the so-called "Blue Homeland" by the Turkish Grand National Assembly in September is expected to drastically alter the political and diplomatic landscape of Greek-Turkish relations. If Erdogan’s plan goes ahead as scheduled, tension will return to the two countries. Such a development will create new realities for the Greek government, which will be called upon to manage a new national crisis with intense political and geostrategic characteristics.
Erdogan and his domestic front
For his part, Erdogan seeks to capitalize on recent successes that he promotes inside Turkey. Following the agreement on the engines of the KAAN fighter jet, he is looking for yet another highly symbolic political victory. The passage of the "Blue Homeland" will allow him to appear before his domestic audience as the leader who institutionalizes Turkish claims in the Aegean and to capitalize on the very warm words that Trump expressed about him.
National issues are Samaras's privileged ground
National issues have long been a privileged area of political intervention for Antonis Samaras. The hardline stance he expresses on national issues resonates with a segment of the traditional electoral base of New Democracy and is estimated to grow even stronger if Ankara proceeds with the official entrenchment of its claims. We recall that his intervention regarding Israel and its obligation to also recognize the Pontian Genocide was welcomed and raised the bar for the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which "advertises" its friendship and harmonious cooperation with Israel.
The curious certainty of Papachelas that raises eyebrows
Nevertheless, from the former Prime Minister's side, it is believed that this specific time window could provide the ideal backdrop for the announcement of the new political project that the former prime minister has been working on for months. Within this environment, the assessments of Alexis Papachelas take on particular interest; in his latest article, he appeared to consider a resort to the polls likely by October. This assessment has rekindled discussions in political corridors, where many link the mobility of government officials in the provinces to a potential plan for a surprise election before developments in Greek-Turkish relations become even more difficult for the government. Papachelas is certainly not an accidental figure. Beyond his experience, he speaks with the Prime Minister and ministers, and is the right-hand man of Yiannis Alafouzos. The question being raised now is whether Antonis Samaras has concluded that the Maximos Mansion is seriously considering this possibility and is therefore accelerating his own political moves. Perhaps he too sees something coming and wants to block any eventualities.
Sotiris Pikoulas
sotirispikoulas@gmail.com
www.bankingnews.gr
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