Although he is seen as a strong player in the center-left, the Maximos Mansion (Greek Prime Minister’s office) welcomes Tsipras’s return to active politics and the prospect of him creating a new political movement.
It is a movement that does not appeal to New Democracy’s base and, according to ND sources, will have great difficulty gaining traction even in the centrist space.
Fragmentation of the center-left favors Mitsotakis
Essentially, a new Tsipras party would spark further splintering within the center-left, which plays into Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s hands.
It’s worth noting that several are vying for a share of the old SYRIZA base: Zoe Konstantopoulou, the New Left of Haritsis–Achtsioglou, Yanis Varoufakis, the SYRIZA faction of Famelou–Pappas, the KKE, and Stefanos Kasselakis. And of course, PASOK has already secured around 13–14%, possibly more.
How can a winning momentum emerge from the center-left with such deep fragmentation?
At most, he could get 17%
Alexis Tsipras, despite having the backing of prominent business figures— no other left-wing political leader enjoys such support — has significant vulnerabilities, the most notable being the Prespa Agreement. From this perspective, he cannot serve as a viable solution for national governance as he did in 2015, because his support comes exclusively from the left-wing electorate, not the patriotic base.
The only realistic outcome is that he could once again — barely — secure around 17%, as SYRIZA did in 2023.
Androulakis, Famelos, Charitsis on hot coals
Who will face problems from the Tsipras affair? With the momentum he will gain, Tsipras is set to crush both SYRIZA and the New Left. Neither party is capable of standing up to him. They couldn’t even collaborate on basic issues — together, based on their number of MPs, they could have formed the main opposition to Kyriakos Mitsotakis. They didn’t, and as a result, PASOK became the official opposition.
Additionally, Konstantopoulou and Varoufakis (who left SYRIZA early) are likely to be the first to attack Alexis Tsipras.
PASOK finishing third was expected
However, PASOK is beginning to face a problem with Tsipras’s return. Any tentative gains in its polling will be cut short. Tsipras will emerge as the anti-Mitsotakis figure, not Nikos Androulakis, who is already, a year and a half before the elections, taking warning shots from his internal party rivals.
Androulakis, necessarily and understandably, pursued an independent strategy for PASOK but sees that he cannot convince a public that still views the party with suspicion. PASOK has set its sights on finishing first, but if Tsipras runs, it will logically come in third. This outcome is likely to trigger significant changes within the party in 2027.
Tsipras’s core team and the business backers
Former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is expected to rely on relatively new figures such as Vaggelis Liakos, Vaggelis Kalpadakis, Thanasis Lalas, and Michalis Kalogirou, while already aligning with him are Olga Gerovasili, Giorgos Karameros, Kostas Zachariadis, and Symeon Kedikoglou. It is clear, however, that gradually others will come knocking on his door, though he will not respond to everyone.
Meanwhile, the campaign to secure support from the media outlets has already begun.
Anyone who saw yesterday’s front page of Efimerida ton Syntakton ( 'The Newspaper of the Editors') can understand that Tsipras will have substantial assistance.
Some have invested heavily in him.
www.bankingnews.gr
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