Tensions in the Middle East are escalating once again, as the events of last night on Larak Island, and particularly the US military strike on the island, combined with Iranian missile and drone attacks against American bases in the region, have sparked intense concern over a potential new flare-up in the coming nights. At the same time, significant weight is attached to statements by US President Donald Trump, who reportedly told Fox News that the US will respond tonight to Iranian attacks targeting Jordan. The central question now is whether Trump's statements foreshadow an actual military operation or form part of a broader strategy of coercion and military deterrence.
Return to "nights of anxiety"
Recent developments have brought the prospect of a new cycle of military operations between the US and Iran back into focus. So far, analysts outline at least four potential scenarios for how the coming days might unfold. The first and perhaps most characteristic predicts a limited and controlled cycle of clashes, the second foresees gradual de-escalation, the third points to sustained escalation that could lead to a wider regional war, and the fourth involves an unexpected last-minute pullback.
Scenario A: Limited and controlled clashes
The first scenario anticipates a repetition of the conflict pattern seen during the so-called Hormuz war. In this case, the US and Iran would exchange limited fire at a controlled level of intensity, without the situation deteriorating into major escalation or resolving into immediate peace. It would essentially constitute a limited war between the two sides, with military operations remaining under tight control. According to this model, such a conflict could last anywhere from one week to a month before coming to an end.
Scenario B: Limited conflict with gradual de-escalation
The second scenario is more optimistic and envisions a rapid de-escalation. Under this version, initial clashes would remain limited, with each subsequent night marked by lower intensity than the last. The exchange of fire would gradually diminish until ceasing entirely after a few days. Consequently, this scenario represents a path where regional tensions dissipate without requiring a broader military confrontation.
Scenario C: Escalation and the path to all-out war
The third scenario represents the most dangerous trajectory. In this case, both sides would enter a cycle of continuous escalation, with daily strikes growing stronger and more frequent. Rather than de-escalating, the conflict would gain momentum, driving the US and Iran toward a broad military confrontation. This scenario could lead to a conflict comparable to the 39-day war, featuring a significant expansion of targets and operational theaters.
Scenario D: Last-minute pullback by Trump
There is, however, a fourth possibility: that no new exchange of fire materializes. This could occur even at the last minute if Donald Trump decides to back down from authorizing a strike. Under this scenario, Trump might claim in a social media post that Iran requested diplomatic negotiations and that he consequently decided to postpone the attack. The American president has utilized similar tactical maneuvers in the past, making a similar move entirely plausible.
Which areas could come under fire
The scope of prospective targets depends directly on which scenario unfolds. Under Scenarios A and B, strikes would likely target areas across southern Iran. Scenario A could see strikes on parts of the southern islands, while Scenario B might limit attacks to select islands or specific coastal locations such as Sirik, Larak, and Qeshm. Under Scenario C, however, the risk of a wider conflict rises significantly. Attacks could expand into central Iranian territories, including Isfahan and Yazd. If the situation devolves into an all-out war similar to the 39-day war, analysis suggests Tehran could also engage in strikes against adversary targets.
How Iran would respond
Iran's retaliation would likewise depend on the scale of the American offensive. Under Scenarios A and B, Tehran would likely limit its response to strikes against US bases located in neighboring Arab nations, such as Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Under Scenario C, should the conflict escalate dramatically, strategic locations in key regional states—including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—could be targeted. Furthermore, if the US executes strikes against Tehran itself, analysts project that strikes against Israeli targets would almost certainly follow.
Will Israel become involved again?
The question of potential Israeli involvement remains critical. Under Scenarios A and B, it is considered unlikely that Israel would directly re-enter the war or face incoming missile and drone strikes from Iran. Even under Scenario C, Israel's direct return to active combat would depend on whether the US chooses to push the conflict into a full-scale war akin to the 39-day war. Short of that, Tel Aviv is expected to remain active behind the scenes, providing the US with logistical support and intelligence.
The critical question: Bluff or new attack?
The coming hours are seen as exceptionally critical. Statements from Donald Trump have heightened uncertainty over whether the US will launch a new military operation or if the threat is part of a broader coercive strategy against Tehran. The core question is whether renewed tension will remain contained and controlled, lead to gradual de-escalation, or clear the path for a wider regional war. In any case, the prospect of another night of military operations revives deep fears of a broad conflict across the Middle East.
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