The president of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, appeared this week before foreign correspondents in Taipei to state something that, as he said, should not even need to be said: the defense of Taiwan is not a provocation. According to him, the nearly daily Chinese military flights over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the naval exercises encircling the island, as well as the diplomatic pressure campaign that has excluded Taiwan from the World Health Assembly and has pushed African countries to close their airspace to his visits, are not considered by Beijing to be provocative actions. Taiwan, on the contrary, is buying weapons to survive. Lai Ching-te has been articulating this position since he assumed power in 2024. However, the audience he is addressing has changed, notes an analysis by Modern Diplomacy. He is no longer speaking primarily to Beijing, which has shown it has no intention of listening to him, but to Washington, where a weapons package worth 14 billion dollars remains without the signature of Donald Trump. The American president himself described this specific package as "a very good bargaining chip" in talks with China, a phrase that, according to the publication, continues to cause intense concern in Taipei.
The weapons packages that have been frozen
Two American weapons packages to Taiwan are currently caught in a political and bureaucratic stalemate. The first, valued at 11 billion dollars, was approved in December and includes missile systems and artillery, without however having moved forward. The second, amounting to 14 billion dollars, was approved by top lawmakers in January, but requires its official submission by Donald Trump to Congress, something that has also not happened. The official rationale for the delay is concern regarding American weapons stockpiles following the war with Iran. The conflict reportedly consumed about 80% of American JASSM-ER missiles and significantly reduced the stockpiles of Patriot and THAAD systems. The simultaneous replenishment of American stockpiles, support for Ukraine, and the arming of Taiwan create a real manufacturing capacity problem. However, the statement by Donald Trump regarding a "bargaining chip" created a second and even more worrying interpretation for Taipei.
The gap between official positions and Trump
The spokesperson for the presidency of Taiwan confirmed that there is no official briefing regarding a suspension of the scheduled weapons agreements. Marco Rubio has also stated that American policy toward Taiwan has not changed and that arms sales are not a subject of negotiation with China. Nevertheless, the distance between the official reassurances and the public positioning of Donald Trump is, according to the article, what causes the greatest concern in Taiwan.
The internal political crisis may be just as dangerous
The defense strategy of Taiwan in 2026 faces two major pressures. The first comes from Beijing and is well-known. The second is internal and, in some cases, even more critical. Lai Ching-te proposed a supplementary defense budget amounting to 1.1 trillion Taiwan dollars (approximately 40 billion dollars), yet the parliament, which is dominated by the opposition, approved only two-thirds of the amount. The cuts primarily concerned the drone program and domestic weapons systems, meaning the asymmetric capabilities that most analysts consider of vital importance for the defense of the island. The Kuomintang party, which maintains a softer stance toward Beijing, has a political interest in presenting American support as uncertain, reinforcing the view that Taiwan must seek closer cooperation with China. Lai Ching-te is now promoting a new special defense package amounting to 210 billion Taiwan dollars, with emphasis on surveillance systems, coastal strike capabilities, and unmanned maritime assets.
"We will not wait for the American cavalry"
The top representative of Taiwan in Washington, Alexander Yui, clearly described the new reality. "This is our own responsibility, therefore we will not wait for the American cavalry to come and save us," he stated. His positioning reflects the strategic necessity of Taiwan not to rely exclusively on the possibility of American military intervention, but to invest in its own defense capabilities.
The semiconductor "chip"
Lai Ching-te is now openly leveraging the geopolitical importance of the semiconductor industry of Taiwan. As he stated to the Foreign Correspondents' Association, "Taiwan constitutes a core global interest and any action that undermines peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is not only a blatant provocation against the international order, but will have significant impacts on the security of the Indo-Pacific, on global supply chains, and on the global economy." This argument has two dimensions. The first concerns deterrence: the destruction or capture of the most advanced microchip industry in the world would cause a multi-year global economic crisis. The second concerns the bargaining power of Taiwan against the United States. The USA still need the chips that Taiwan produces for their own defense industry, artificial intelligence applications, and their technological sector. Despite the CHIPS Act, American self-sufficiency in semiconductors remains a goal of decades and not of a few years.
Congress sends a different message
While the executive branch appears ambivalent regarding the weapons agreements, the American Senate is moving in a different direction. The Senate Armed Services Committee approved a bill providing 1.5 billion dollars in security assistance for Taiwan and the Philippines, confirming the view that the security of the two countries constitutes a vital American interest and must not be sacrificed within the framework of trade negotiations with Beijing.
How China wins without firing a shot
The strategy of China in 2026 relies on continuous but controlled pressure. The nearly daily violations of the median line, regular naval patrols, and large military exercises around political events create constant tension without leading to open conflict. At the same time, Beijing continues the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan, excluding it from international organizations and pressing third countries to limit their relations with Taipei. According to the analysis, the Chinese leadership is betting that the combination of continuous pressure and uncertainty regarding American support will gradually shift the internal political balance of Taiwan toward a more compromising stance toward Beijing. Whether this strategy will pay off will depend to a large extent on the fate of the American weapons packages and on whether Lai Ching-te will manage to secure the necessary political consensus to continue the defense strategy of the country.
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