Damning CSIS report on the US - The "detail" that forced Trump to sign the deal with Iran

Like a protagonist in a reality show, US President Donald Trump signed the agreement—a capitulation—with Iran to end a war that cost him dearly. It was not just the American economy that suffered, but the US Armed Forces, as history proved that America's advanced weapons are extremely effective—but difficult to sustain in a long-term war without large reserves and rapid replenishment. Quality still matters, but quantity and the ability to replace losses also count. Democratic Senator Mark Kelly publicly sounded the alarm regarding exhausted stockpiles. In recent interviews, he stated that it could take "years" to rebuild stocks of Tomahawks, Patriots, THAAD interceptors, and other key munitions following the campaign in Iran. Conversely, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth responded sharply, accusing Kelly of leaking sensitive information and launching an investigation into his comments. Previous reporting by the EurAsian Times indicated that ammunition depletion was likely one of the reasons for the pause in operations.

The damning CSIS report

A recent report from CSIS by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park confirms the scale of the depletion. Before the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, the US possessed approximately: 100 Tomahawk cruise missiles (TLAMs) — More than 1,000 were launched (about one-third of the inventory). Annual production had hovered below 200 in recent years. Even with efforts to achieve over 1,000 annually, full restoration to pre-war levels is not expected before late 2030. 400 THAAD interceptors — 190–290 were used. Production currently stands at about 96 per year, but aims for 400. Replenishment is expected to be completed by late 2029. 500 Patriot interceptors — 1,060–1,430 were launched. Current production is about 650 per year (shared with allies). Major new orders in the FY2027 budget indicate that deliveries will begin in 2029. SM-3 and SM-6 missiles — Heavy use occurred (over 250 SM-3s out of about 400, and 190–370 SM-6s). Restoring them to pre-war levels will require about two years. JASSM cruise missiles — Over 1,100 were used out of more than 4,000 available. This is less concerning, as production was already running at higher rates. PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) — A newer system with fewer than 100 missiles before the war. 40–70 were used. Production is scaling up but remains limited. The report notes that previous stockpile reductions (operations in the Red Sea against the Houthis, support for Ukraine and Israel) exacerbated the situation. Providing Patriot systems to Ukraine also reduced American stockpiles.

Stockpile replenishment is difficult

Replenishing these reserves is proving difficult due to supply chain problems, shortages of critical components and minerals, and low past order volumes. Even with framework agreements and Trump's pressure for higher output, "production capacity does not equal actual production," warned the American think tank CSIS. This shortage has damaged US credibility as a weapons supplier to partners such as Poland, Taiwan, and Gulf states. It also limits options should a new crisis break out in the Indo-Pacific or Europe. The US government's proposed defense budget of $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027 includes major new ammunition orders and aims to expand production capacity over the next five to seven years. This framework is aimed at industry and is designed to accelerate progress. However, experts say that real results will take time. Until stockpiles are restored, any American president—including Trump—will likely think twice before committing to another long-term, high-intensity war. Even with ambitious targets and new funding, replenishing exhausted munitions will be a slow and complex process.

In any potential conflict involving China or another major war in Europe, Washington could be forced to play it safe to preserve critical precision munitions or limit its operations to avoid a dangerous depletion of vital missile reserves. The war with Iran served as a wake-up call for Washington and the world. The 39-day conflict revealed the fragility of relying heavily on expensive, low-volume production weapons without adequate stockpiles.

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