Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' under strain as Tehran eyes regional escalation

Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, Iran relies on a network of armed groups united under the so-called "Axis of Resistance." This structure, which includes Shiite and Sunni paramilitary units, allows Tehran to project influence beyond its borders without the direct involvement of regular troops. These groups receive financial, military, and logistical support from Iran, primarily through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and coordinate their actions to confront common adversaries such as the United States, Israel, and their allies. However, by early 2026, many of these forces have been significantly weakened by recent conflicts, including Israeli operations and internal crises, reducing their operational effectiveness despite ongoing Iranian aid. If the conflict escalates, these forces could play a key role in asymmetric warfare, draining enemy resources and striking vulnerable targets, although their weakened state limits their potential.

Hezbollah (Lebanon)

Hezbollah, a Shiite group founded in the 1980s with Iranian support, is one of Tehran's most powerful proxy forces. The organization boasts up to 100,000 fighters, including reservists, and possesses an arsenal of tens of thousands of missiles and drones. Iran provides Hezbollah with approximately $700 million annually, along with technology for the production of ballistic and anti-tank missiles. In return, the group acts as Iran's "forward shield" against Israel. In a potential war, Hezbollah could launch massive missile attacks against Israeli cities and infrastructure, overwhelming air defense systems like the Iron Dome. This would distract Israeli forces from other fronts, allowing Iran to focus on defense. Additionally, fighters could conduct ground operations in southern Lebanon, increasing pressure on Israel's northern border.

However, by February 2026, Hezbollah had suffered heavy losses: the elimination of key commanders and centers of expertise, as well as over 64,000 displaced Lebanese following the November 2024 ceasefire. The organization has been weakened by the Iranian recession and internal changes in Beirut, with recent Israeli strikes causing the death of both fighters and civilians. A significant portion of these losses occurred in Syria, where Hezbollah had actively supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad since 2011, losing thousands of fighters in battles against rebels and jihadists. Since early 2024, Israeli airstrikes in Syria have caused the deaths of at least 62 members of the Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, including key logistics specialists. The fall of Assad in late 2025 exacerbated the situation, depriving Hezbollah of strategic depth. The supply chain from Iran, which traditionally passed through the Syrian corridor, was completely severed after the new Syrian authorities closed the routes. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem confirmed the loss of the "military route through Syria" in December 2024, though analysts believe the damage is critical to long-term viability.

Houthis (Yemen)

The Ansar Allah movement, known as the Houthis, is a group that has controlled a significant part of Yemen since 2014. Iran supplies the Houthis with ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-ship systems worth millions of dollars annually and trains specialists through the Revolutionary Guard. This support has bolstered their long-range strike capabilities. In an upcoming conflict, the Houthis could disrupt global maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait by attacking commercial ships and US warships with drones and missiles. Such actions would cause economic chaos, diverting US forces and increasing the cost of intervention. As of early 2026, the group faces unstable dynamics in southern Yemen and a potential resurgence of conflict with the recognized government, exacerbated by a humanitarian crisis affecting 19.5 million people.

Hamas (Palestine)

Hamas, the Islamist organization ruling the Gaza Strip, receives weapons, funding (up to $100 million annually), and technical assistance for tunnels and missile systems from Iran. Iran coordinates its actions with other Palestinian factions through the Joint Operations Room. Hamas can initiate sabotage and missile attacks against Israel, escalating the multi-front war and diverting resources from the Iranian theater. In the event of escalation, it organizes guerrilla attacks from Gaza, including hostage-takings, which discourage the opponent and prolong the conflict. By 2026, Hamas has been significantly weakened: more than 72,000 Palestinians have been killed, and the population of Gaza has decreased by 10%. Following the October 2025 ceasefire, the group is described as "barely functioning."

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Palestine)

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), a Sunni group closely aligned with Hamas, relies on Iran as its key sponsor, receiving missiles, training, and up to $700 million annually. Iran uses the PIJ to diversify the Palestinian front. In a war, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad would intensify missile attacks against Israel, coordinating with Hamas to saturate its air defenses. The group specializes in terrorist attacks and sabotage, which could trigger retaliation and expand the conflict to the West Bank. In 2026, the PIJ suffered new European Union sanctions and losses, including the assassination of its Northern Gaza Brigade commander in February, leaving it more vulnerable than Hamas.

Popular Mobilization Forces (Iraq)

The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is a coalition of Shiite militias in Iraq, integrated into state structures but loyal to Iran. Key factions include Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which receive weapons, intelligence, and funding from Tehran. These groups are capable of attacking US bases in Iraq and Syria with drones and missiles, disrupting US logistical support. In a full-scale war, the PMF would organize guerrilla operations, blocking supplies and hitting allies of Iran. By 2026, the PMF faces internal resistance to unification and US sanctions; they have even been used to suppress protests in Iran (with 5,000 fighters deployed), but remain relatively stable under pressure from Baghdad.

Iranian proxies in Syria

Iran supports a network of Shiite militias in Syria, such as the Afghan Fatemiyoun and the Pakistani Zainabiyoun, to defend the Assad regime and create a buffer zone against Israel. These groups, numbering thousands of fighters, receive weapons and salaries from the Revolutionary Guard. In a conflict, they can perform sabotage against Israeli forces in the Golan Heights. However, after the fall of Assad in 2025, these proxies suffered catastrophic losses: systematic destruction of their networks by Israeli strikes and a loss of bases. By February 2026, they are attempting to regroup but risk dissolution due to the lack of a central sponsor and the spread of jihadists.

Conclusion

Overall, these groups form a decentralized network capable of conducting hybrid warfare, from missile attacks to naval sabotage. Their coordination enhances Iran's strategic depth, potentially turning a local conflict into a regional one, posing a high risk to global stability. However, in a global war, the "Axis of Resistance" would find itself in chaos: many, such as Hamas and the Syrian proxies, risk being completely destroyed due to accumulated losses, while Hezbollah and the Houthis may adapt, but at a high cost, leading to a restructuring of the network or its eventual collapse, further isolating Iran.

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