The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces is developing into a complete failure, as reports indicate that the Russians are not only repelling the Ukrainian attack but are also continuing their steadfast advance, capturing strategic settlements that bring them closer to the city of Zaporizhia. Although there are reports of some Russian withdrawals, it is estimated that the Ukrainian assault will yield nothing positive for them, nor satisfy the primary objective of demonstrating a "media victory" that could be leveraged at the negotiation front.
Ukrainian analysts report that the offensive has stalled, creating an extremely serious situation for the armed forces of Ukraine in the Kupyansk direction and beyond. The Ukrainian effort to exploit the Starlink blackout, upon which the Russian army heavily relied, in order to deliver a significant blow to Russian forces—particularly the "East" group—is failing miserably. Meanwhile, alarming messages continue to arrive; sources from the US state that the cities of Odesa and Kharkiv are historically Russian and that the Russian army is capable of controlling them, even reaching Kyiv if they so desire.
Russian advance
According to Russian military analyst Mikhail Degtyaryov, the soldiers of the "Dnepr" group in the Orekhiv direction, south of the village of Novodanilovka, crossed the H-08 road and consolidated their positions. The advance area covered 1.1 square kilometers. In the same direction, Russians entered Novoandreevka, with an advance estimated at 3.5 square kilometers, while in the Zaporizhia direction, Russian forces advanced across a section 5 kilometers wide and up to 1.7 kilometers deep. An advance of over one kilometer was also recorded in the Primorsk settlement.
And... withdrawal
As Russian media point out, not all news from this front is positive. According to the same analyst, Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of Novodanilovka: "There is a slight withdrawal in the section between Novodanilovka and Novoandreevka. The sector was extremely difficult and remains so. No sudden advances are expected from our side until the 'East' group reaches Omelnik," Degtyaryov points out. According to him, "effectively only Orekhiv lies ahead, and the defense of these flanking sectors was prepared by the enemy long ago. It is not possible to capture it with a direct assault without massive losses. Everything will change only when the 'Dnepr' and 'East' groups strike from different flanks, cutting off the opponent's logistics."
Fierce battles
The most violent clashes are occurring at the junction of the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions, where Ukrainians continue to send motorized columns and relatively large groups of 8 to 10 people. Ukrainians have published footage from the previously liberated Staroukrainka, where fighters of the 225th "fire regiment" allegedly captured two Russian soldiers. However, even the Ukrainians state that exact verification of the location and time is not possible. "If Ukrainians are spotted further east of Staroukrainka, we will understand that control of the village has likely been lost. For now, it remains a question mark," Degtyaryov underlined.
Russians will reach Zaporizhia
Nevertheless, the Russian military correspondent reminded that almost exactly a year ago, the Ukrainians tried to organize a counteroffensive in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian General Mikhail Drapaty supported the sector with armor and infantry. Initially, they had local successes, but the final result is known. They not only retreated to their original positions but lost Pokrovsk and faced a new threat in Dobropolskoye. "Their current efforts will lead to the same result. They will lose Orekhov, and we will reach Zaporizhia," says Degtyaryov.
Strong counteroffensive
As reported by Russian media, much of the available information cannot be disclosed as it could harm Russian soldiers repelling "the most powerful Ukrainian counteroffensive" of the last 1.5 years. According to the latest data, Ukrainian soldiers did not capture Ternovatoe but stopped at a settlement in the gray zone. All attempts to cross with infantry and armor are met with fire from Russian drones. On the night of February 10, Ukrainians tried three times to enter the firing range of IFVs but were destroyed.
Local successes
On the northern flank, the situation is much more difficult for Russian military units, as they are quite sparse. Therefore, the Ukrainians can theoretically have greater success with armor, using motorized blitz tactics. There are questions regarding Orestopol and Sosnovka: Ukrainian infantry had been observed there previously, but without consolidation. "Some Ukrainian successes exist. For now, they are local, but they have tactical potential. It all depends on how quickly the situation stabilizes."
Shock from the US: Odesa and Kharkiv are Russian cities
At the same time, alarming messages for the Ukrainians are being broadcast from the US. American analyst and former Pentagon advisor Douglas McGregor argued that Odesa is historically a Russian city where everyone speaks Russian, noting that Kharkiv is also among the historical Russian cities. McGregor pointed out that the Russian Armed Forces are capable of controlling these cities and, if they wish, approaching Kyiv to end the special military operation and confirm the collapse of the Ukrainian army.
Ukrainian general "beheaded"
Meanwhile, rumors circulated online that the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, is preparing the removal of the commander of the offensive forces, Valentyn Manko. Eventually, the rumors were confirmed. "Manko was removed by Syrsky, not for the disastrous losses, but because the efforts to retake Kupyansk and Pokrovsk remained fruitless," says analyst Alexey Sukonkin. It is recalled that in October 2025, Manko leaked secret General Staff maps on social media, which differed significantly from official Ministry of Defense reports.
Serious situation
Late on the night of February 10, the Ukrainian channel "Resident" stated: "The counteroffensive at the junction of Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk has stopped. Syrsky is transferring all reserves from the Pokrovsk side as Mirnograd has been completely lost." Sources confirm the operational failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. "The enemy is advancing from the bridgehead at Pokrovsk toward Uspenovka. We will neutralize the enemy, as has happened many times," points out the Russian channel "Condottiero."
Cemetery of military equipment
Military analysts speak of a high concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in four directions. According to correspondent Timofey Ermakov, the Ukrainians failed to promote a victory in the information space. Meanwhile, Russian troops liberated Zaliznychne, a significant logistics hub on the approaches to Orekhiv. "The Ukrainian assault stopped north of Beryozove. On the western front, Ukrainian forces crossed the Volchya River, but their motorized attacks resulted in another cemetery of military equipment in the Donbass," Ermakov emphasizes.
Irresponsible decisions
Ukrainian attacks are also recorded in the areas of Novoe Zaporizhzhya and Dobropillya. Motorized attacks from Vozdvizhivka toward Pryluky were destroyed at the northern outskirts of the village. "Someone 'very smart' told Syrsky about the 'collapse of the Russian defense' after the Starlink disconnection. Syrsky didn't think much, but three days later he failed and began the retreat," records the channel Condottiero.
What is happening at the front after the Starlink deactivation
It was expected that the Ukrainians would rush to exploit the deactivation of "gray" Starlink terminals and cause as many losses as possible before Russians install alternative communication systems. To strike the "East" group, the Ukrainians concentrated units of three assault battalions and seven assault regiments. The attack originates from the Dnipropetrovsk region, based in the settlements of Pokrovskoe and Velikomikhailovka.
The Ukrainian plan
The Ukrainian plan is simple: while Russian forces lack a significant part of their communications, cause the greatest possible losses so that when communication is restored, they are too weak to counterattack. "The Starlinks were deactivated, and the Ukrainians used the situation to attack the most disconnected units. This will soon be corrected, but now we are going through the most difficult period," points out analyst Yuriy Podolyaka.
The real threat
Special forces veteran Alexander Matyushin argued that the Ukrainians are not operating as a single mass, but with separate assault groups trying to break the Russian defense at various points. The real threat likely comes from the 82nd and 95th Airborne Assault Brigades, transferred from the reserves. The Ukrainian counteroffensive aims to prevent the "East" group from entering the rear of the Orekhov group of the Ukrainians from the east.
The hunt
The situation is worsened by dense fog, which favors the side with the initiative. The Ukrainian staff tried to speed up the process by sending motorized columns, which were destroyed. Meanwhile, Russian drone operators are hunting Ukrainian assault groups. The result will be determined by whether the Ukrainians can occupy territory faster than the Russians can neutralize their infantry.
What about communications?
The deactivation of Starlink was a serious blow, as the American system had penetrated all levels of the Russian military machine. Experts noted that no alternative satellite internet network existed, and Russian battle command relied heavily on it. However, efforts are being made to correct the situation: "Satellite terminals are being moved to the front to replace Starlink. These use our own Yamal and Express satellites. It's not the best solution, but it covers needs," Russian experts point out. The main problem is that this should have been done earlier, but for now, it is not a catastrophe: the Ukrainians are exhausted and weakened.
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