Metlen now forecasts that 2025 EBITDA will be approximately 25% lower
Metlen has confirmed the steady and resilient performance of its core business, which is progressing according to expectations. However, due to unforeseen cost overruns in the M Power Projects (MPP) division and a shift in the timing of certain transactions within M Renewables' asset rotation plan, the 2025 EBITDA target is no longer expected to be met. Metlen now forecasts that 2025 EBITDA will be approximately 25% lower, causing turbulence for its share price, which has dropped 13.5% to €38.30, bringing its market capitalization to €5.5 billion.
1. Challenges in M Power Projects
In the H1 2025 financial results, the Company announced that the performance of M Power Projects (now part of Renewables, Storage & Energy Transition) had been impacted by unforeseen challenges, primarily at the Protos project in the United Kingdom, which led to cost increases and schedule delays. Following the Company's listing on the London Stock Exchange, enhanced policies and procedures were implemented, and quarterly audits of all projects are now conducted to ensure that costs, schedules, and budgets remain on track. As the closing process for Q4 and FY2025 progresses, the Company has identified additional cost overruns and schedule delays exclusively affecting the performance of MPP, without impacting core activities. The affected projects are now expected to be completed on time based on the revised budget. Management has already implemented additional operational controls and enhanced oversight measures to manage these projects more effectively in the future. Furthermore, as part of the recent "Big 3" corporate transformation, the former M Power Projects sector has been fully restructured and integrated into the new MRES-ET branch, which continues the internationally successful MRES sector.
2. Timing of transaction completion in M Renewables' Asset Rotation Plan
Three transactions under M Renewables' Asset Rotation Plan (in the UK, Spain, and Australia) were originally expected to close by the end of 2025. The UK transaction was eventually completed on February 4, 2026. The annual audit of the Company's consolidated results for 2025 is currently underway, with publication scheduled for March 31, 2026. METLEN maintains a strong financial position, with liquidity exceeding €4 billion at the end of 2025 and adjusted net debt at levels similar to H1 2025, approximately €2 billion, reflecting resilience and consistent execution in core operations. Operating profitability, excluding the losses from MPP, would have met previous forecasts for an EBITDA of €1 billion. Performance for 2026 has started positively, reflecting strong market trends, the solid path of the Company's core activities, and ongoing strategic initiatives across its growth pillars. The Company's medium-term forecasts, as presented at the Capital Markets Day in April 2025, remain unchanged, with EBITDA projected between €1,900–2,080 million through organic growth, while potential M&A transactions in Western Europe are expected to be finalized in the immediate future.
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