In an interview with "The Washington Post," the head of Iraqi intelligence, Hamid al-Shatri, warned of a sharp and alarming increase in the number of ISIS fighters in Syria. According to his estimates, the organization's forces have grown from approximately 2,000 to as many as 10,000 individuals in just over a year. This is no longer a matter of scattered cells, but the restoration of a unified and functional combat structure. Baghdad emphasizes that the threat is clearly cross-border. ISIS does not recognize borders between Syria and Iraq, treating the region as a single field of action. Iraqi intelligence services estimate that the organization will attempt to regain a foothold within Iraqi territory with the aim of carrying out attacks.
The recent chaos in prisons in northeastern Syria during clashes between government forces and Kurdish militias is considered particularly worrying. During that period, several fighters managed to escape toward desert areas, although some were later captured. Al-Shatri also draws attention to the composition of the new cadres of the renewed ISIS. These include individuals previously associated with Syria's current leader, Al-Sharaa, who had led an al-Qaeda branch. The arrests of these individuals by government forces did not defuse the situation; instead, they increased tensions and accelerated the movement of radical elements between different organizations.
At the same time, an influx of defectors from Jabhat al-Nusra and Ansar al-Sunna is being recorded, as well as intense recruitment among Arab tribes, primarily in Sunni areas that until recently were under Kurdish control. All of this forms an extremely disturbing picture: amid the climate of generalized instability in Syria, ISIS is regaining power and momentum once again, with Iraq emerging as the first and most obvious target of a new bloody offensive.
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