Despite declarations regarding energy independence from Moscow, the numbers tell a different story. In early 2026, the flow of Russian natural gas to the EU via TurkStream is surging, exposing the persistent vulnerabilities in the European energy strategy.
10% increase in flows to the EU
Supplies of Russian gas to European Union countries through the TurkStream pipeline increased by 10% during the period from January 1 to 18, 2026, compared to the same period the previous year, reaching 993 million cubic meters. These figures emerge from calculations by the Vedomosti newspaper, based on data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG). According to experts speaking to Vedomosti, the increased flows through TurkStream reflect Europe's ongoing reliance on short-term market conditions, as Russian gas remains cheaper compared to spot market alternatives.
Flows near historic records
The average daily delivery volume during the period under review amounted to 55.2 million cubic meters per day. A higher level was recorded only in December 2025, when the average daily volume reached 55.9 million cubic meters. Since January 13, the pipeline capacity has been moving at 56.7 million cubic meters daily, while the historic daily high was recorded on December 11 of last year at 56.72 million cubic meters.
Record on an annual basis in 2025
Throughout 2025, Russian natural gas supplies to the EU via TurkStream increased by 8% year-on-year, reaching a historic record of 18 billion cubic meters, according to Vedomosti's calculations based on ENTSOG data. In December, exports also recorded a historic high, reaching 1.73 billion cubic meters, up 14% compared to the same month of the previous year.
The price advantage
The price of Russian natural gas, especially that sold through long-term contracts, is currently more attractive to European buyers than the cost of fuel on the spot market, Maria Belova, research director at the consulting firm Implementa, told Vedomosti. As Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, explained, the cost of Russian gas is linked to spot prices but with a time lag of one to seven months, making it more predictable and often cheaper.
Energy dependence behind diversification rhetoric
The significant increase in Russian gas transit via TurkStream in January shows that the European gas market still depends heavily on short-term market conditions, despite the EU's long-standing policy of import diversification, noted Belova. According to Kaufman's forecasts, in January and early February, supplies to the EU via TurkStream are expected to remain at high levels, between 53 and 55 million cubic meters daily. A decisive role will be played by the need to maintain reserves in underground gas storage facilities.
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