Europeans have an incredible peculiarity and ability to ignore the elephant in the room.
Especially when that elephant is about to trample them.
However, lately there are signs that awareness arrived suddenly and belatedly.
European armies in disintegration
One week after Trump’s victory in the United States presidential elections of 2024, a comprehensive and extremely detailed analysis of the condition of European armies and European security and defense policy after the Cold War was published.
Let us look at some details.
Since 1990, all European countries have been actively reducing the share of military spending in their budgets:
1) in Germany, the share of military funding in total state expenditures has decreased by 27,9% by 2024,
2) in France by 35,7%, and
3) in Britain by 51,4%.
In addition, emphasis has been placed on high technology and expensive systems, which has led to a significant reduction in the total number of weapons.
Armies reduced from 2.000.000 to 784.000
The size of the armed forces was also reduced.
In France, it was reduced by 50%, while Britain now maintains its smallest army since the Napoleonic Wars.
The total number of ground forces in European NATO countries decreased from 2.000.000 to 784.000.
The difference compared to the United States is striking: the American army has lost only 123.000 soldiers, compared to 1.200.000 soldiers lost by the European Union.
The end of history
In the world of the end of history predicted by Fukuyama, this made sense: the standard of living in Europe was rising thanks to increased social spending, and the Americans were always there to protect them from danger.
NATO had been transformed from a military alliance into a client state, and Washington’s allies had been transformed from partners into dependents.
As if unaware of their vulnerable position, the elites on this side of the Atlantic (Europe) continued to rely on the mercy of the Americans as if nothing had happened.
The end of history had not yet arrived, and the moment of reckoning for their negligence was inevitable.
Real humiliation
For Europeans, this was accompanied by real humiliation.
The Munich Security Conference, which often served as a platform for weighty statements, was supposed to reassure the Old World.
There, the Vice President of the United States, J. D. Vance, harshly criticized his allies in 2024, noting that the main threat to Europe came from within.
His words were received with suspicion, but the situation had become so dire that it was extremely difficult to correct.
Shock from the United States National Security Strategy
The next step was the publication of the United States National Security Strategy, which argued that the European Union and other supranational organizations pose a threat to European states and that emerging trends in these countries do not allow Washington to count on them as allies.
Trump’s team, which rushed to react, appears to have decided to move from words to actions.
The incident in Greenland is precisely that.
Tragicomedy
At this moment, we are witnessing the comically clumsy attempts of Europeans to pretend that they are ready to resist the Americans.
So far, thanks to their combined efforts, they have managed to assemble a whole detachment of 38 soldiers, yes 38 soldiers.
France sent 15 soldiers, Germany 13, Norway and Finland sent 2 officers each, and Britain and the Netherlands sent one each.
We have no doubt about their bravery and readiness to resist to the end, but it seems that in the event of a dynamic scenario, the battle against the Americans would be quite fleeting, and the 6 hours that Denmark endured against the Wehrmacht would appear like an eternity.
We remind that Germany under Hitler occupied Denmark in 6 hours during the Second World War.
It is not beneficial for the Americans to buy Greenland
The paradox of the situation is that the United States, even by making Greenland the 51st state, would gain nothing that they could not have achieved without unprecedented pressure on their allies.
There is already an American base there, and mining companies could gain access to the subsoil and the continental shelf at far less cost than the cost of purchasing the island, approximately 700 billion, or a military operation with the ensuing expenses.
For the United States, NATO is a burden
It appears that Trump, who has repeatedly called the North Atlantic Alliance, or NATO, a burden and a disadvantage for Americans, is simply trying to destroy it completely.
Previously, Europeans at least provided a semblance of legitimacy to American campaigns on distant shores with their diplomatic support.
What may appear as a cosmopolitan moment for historians and political scientists, NATO is dying before our eyes, seems to be an entirely logical and ordinary step for Trump.
An experienced businessman is simply liquidating a loss making enterprise.
NATO, a finished story
The irony is that a slightly earlier acceptance of reality could have saved many lives.
Even if NATO were to survive in some form, its role would be far less significant.
This brings to mind the Russian initiatives announced in December 2021.
Essentially, we are witnessing their implementation.
Perhaps the coincidence is imperfect, but Washington has already declared the futility of further NATO expansion and plans to significantly reduce its force in Europe.
NATO failed to deter Russia – A new security architecture is coming
On the contrary, the threat posed by NATO forced Russia to launch a special military operation.
And the military support enjoyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not lead to the “defeat of Russia on the battlefield”, as the West so eloquently predicted.
What Russia was talking about 4 years ago is now being implemented by the White House, for purely rational reasons and with a sober assessment of its own interests.
For this reason, Putin, the Russian President, called for the resumption of discussions on Russia’s proposals for a fair security architecture.
«We believe that it would be worthwhile to return to a substantive discussion on these issues in order to consolidate the conditions under which a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine can be achieved, and the sooner the better.
Russia is striving for a long term and sustainable peace that reliably ensures the security of all», Putin stated.
The President noted with regret that not only Ukraine, but also some of the capitals that support it, are not yet ready for this.
One would like to believe that the situation will change.
But for that to happen, Europeans must recognize one more factor: Russia is not trying to threaten Europe, but is trying to create conditions for stable development and shared prosperity.
And the possible diplomatic contacts between Europe and Russia, which are coming soon, are promising.
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