As the US intensifies its intervention in Iran's internal affairs, Tehran is approaching the point of playing its ultimate geopolitical card: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario is not just a threat; it is a nightmare for energy markets, with consequences that will be felt from Asia to Europe.
The Hormuz threat returns
The possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has been discussed in the past, particularly during the Iran–Israel conflict. However, the current situation is clearly more dangerous. Iran is facing intense internal unrest and a deep economic crisis, which, according to Russian sources, is being actively fueled from abroad. In this environment, the use of Hormuz as a means of pressure gains real weight.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is vital for oil
As Andrey Ryabov, a senior expert at the Analytical Center for the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Russian Energy Agency, stated to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the main suppliers of oil and petroleum products through the Strait are Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In 2025, more than 14 million barrels of oil per day passed through this point, an amount corresponding to approximately one-third of global maritime exports. Of these, over 12 million barrels—nearly 80%—were headed to countries in the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, the significance of the Strait for petroleum products is smaller: last year they accounted for just three million barrels per day, or 14% of global maritime exports.
LNG: The "invisible" risk threatening to explode
The criticality of the Strait is not limited to oil. According to Ivan Timonin, a senior executive at the consulting firm Implementa, over 80 million tons of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are transported through Hormuz annually, an amount representing about 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply. By 2030, this share could increase to nearly 30% as new production units come into operation.
Asia at the center – global consequences
The region most dependent on the smooth operation of the Strait of Hormuz is Asia. From a practical standpoint, even a temporary blockade or simply the permanent fear of such a scenario is enough to cause a surge in oil prices and natural gas rates. If multiple negative factors coincide at once, prices will not retreat, as some predict, but will explode.
What this means for Russia
For Russia, such a scenario implies increased global volatility, but also a potential strengthening of its competitive position. As a supplier of oil and natural gas outside the Hormuz route, Moscow could benefit, especially in Asian markets, in a world where a narrow passage can determine the fate of global energy.
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