The explosive rise of the Caracas stock exchange following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro raises inevitable questions: was it merely a political shock that "unlocked" the market, or did some individuals have prior knowledge and place their bets early? The movements, timing, and messaging from Washington suggest that Donald Trump may have played the game to its conclusion. For some observers, these events imply the American president acted beyond politics, substantially influencing the market.
Geopolitical turmoil triggered intense activity on prediction platforms and cryptocurrency markets. On Polymarket, a single position reportedly turned $34,000 into over $400,000 by betting on Maduro’s ouster, although the platform later canceled the related bets. Simultaneously, reports emerged that Donald Trump’s crypto holdings grew by roughly $140 million following the operation. The intertwining of politics, market movements, and personal wealth continues to fuel suspicions regarding Trump’s market role.
An unprecedented rally
The Caracas stock market recorded one of the most impressive surges in its history. The main index, Índice Bursátil de Capitalización (IBC), climbed approximately 160% since January 3, 2026—the date US special forces apprehended President Nicolás Maduro in a high-risk military operation codenamed Absolute Resolve.
The peak occurred on January 6, when the index skyrocketed by 50% in a single session. This represents one of the largest daily gains ever recorded in a regulated market, as trading resumed and investors reacted to news that Maduro was being held in custody in New York.
Limited liquidity, massive expectations
Despite the rally, the Caracas market remains exceptionally shallow. Only about 15 stocks are actively traded, and daily turnover in dollar terms often does not exceed $200,000 based on parallel black-market rates.
The sharp movements are primarily attributed to speculative bets on political change, potential easing of US sanctions, external debt restructuring, and, most importantly, renewed access for foreign players to Venezuela's oil reserves, which are the largest proven reserves in the world.
Energy market reaction
Shares of American energy companies, particularly Chevron, which already holds interests in Venezuela, surged on the prospect of increased access to the country's oil assets. While international crude prices remained relatively stable, the broader trend in energy stocks reflected investor strategic assessments of how a post-Maduro regime would unlock investment and oil revenues.
Bonds and institutional investor gains
Venezuelan sovereign bonds, which had traded at deep discounts for years due to default, spiked sharply. Hedge funds and other institutional investors positioned in these distressed assets saw significant gains as the probability of debt restructuring and sanctions relief grew. The speed of the rally demonstrates how quickly markets incorporate geopolitical risk and reset expectations for regime change.
Oil, deals, and the "Washington factor"
Optimism was bolstered by reports of a US–Venezuela agreement that would allow crude exports of up to $2 billion, even as global oil prices faced pressure from expectations of increased supply. Simultaneously, rumors are intensifying that negotiations with international creditors are entering a critical phase, with growing optimism that a post-Maduro environment will allow for more manageable restructuring terms. In this setting, some whisper that the timing was too perfect to be coincidental.
Trade, dependencies, and geopolitical interests
Venezuela's trade profile remains overwhelmingly dependent on oil. The United States has historically been the primary destination for heavy Venezuelan crude, with Gulf of Mexico refineries specifically tailored to its grades. Even during the sanctions years, limited flows continued through special licenses.
At the same time, China is the largest individual buyer and creditor, absorbing vast quantities of crude and holding approximately $20 billion in debt linked to long-term oil deals. Other significant trading partners include Spain, Brazil, and Turkey. On the import side, dependency is just as strong: the US accounts for 18% of total imports, followed by China (16%) and Brazil (12%).
Shadows over Trump’s role
The sequence of events is difficult to overlook: a military operation, political upheaval, signals regarding oil and sanctions, and a simultaneous stock market rally of historic proportions in a low-liquidity market. Officially, it is all attributed to the "hope for change."
Unofficially, however, the Caracas market whispers that some were better prepared. In an era where Donald Trump has demonstrated that he treats geopolitics, energy, and economic pressure as communicating vessels, the allegations that "someone played the market" before and after Maduro's arrest are unlikely to fade. Whether this was political strategy or another harsh lesson in realpolitik remains to be seen in the coming market cycles.
Mystery trader wins $400,000 from Maduro’s ouster – The controversial bet
An unknown investor earned over $400,000 by correctly betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power. The event brings the limits of event forecasting and the regulation of prediction markets into the spotlight. The trader managed to secure these profits through the Polymarket platform, where traders buy and sell contracts linked to the probability of real-world events. At the time the bets were placed, the odds of Maduro's removal were considered low.
According to Polymarket data, the trader placed contracts predicting Maduro’s ouster shortly before the US military operation. The total value of the bets was approximately $34,000 prior to the weekend raid. Following the announcement of Maduro’s arrest, the contract value increased exponentially, yielding estimated profits of around $410,000.
Impact on markets
Financial instruments reacted violently to the developments in Venezuela. Key stock indices rose, oil prices strengthened, and energy company stocks recorded significant gains. Venezuelan sovereign bonds and PDVSA debt (the state oil company) surged, with some prices rising by up to 30% as investors anticipated political transition and future debt restructuring.
The mysterious transaction is expected to attract scrutiny from US lawmakers already pushing for stricter rules against insider trading. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres stated he intends to propose legislation prohibiting elected officials and federal employees from betting on prediction markets, citing concerns over access to non-public information.
Regulatory framework
Polymarket received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in September to resume operations in the US following the acquisition of a regulated derivatives exchange. Despite restrictions for US-based users, many traders use VPNs to bypass these limits. The CFTC has not stated whether it is investigating trades linked to Maduro's arrest.
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