The arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by the United States will be studied closely by Beijing, which has already indicated its ability to target Taiwan’s leadership in its most recent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) exercises near the island, according to analysts.
The operation, which was carried out on Saturday 3 January by the elite Delta Force unit of the US Army, the top special operations unit, was described by Chinese analysts as a “model” strike, with high precision and minimal losses.
“The planning and execution were extremely detailed,” said Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military analyst, according to a report by the South China Morning Post.
“The operation against Maduro achieved its objective and demonstrated a systematic approach, with extensive intelligence gathering and the use of multiple platforms to neutralize defensive systems through electronic warfare and air strikes,” he added.
The operation was conducted on multiple levels
According to American officials, more than 150 military aircraft, including drones, fighters, and bombers, were deployed to destroy Venezuela’s air defenses, opening a clear corridor for helicopters carrying American special forces to Maduro’s compound.
The mission also included cyber operations that caused power outages across large parts of Caracas. It was preceded by months of intensive exercises, intelligence gathering, and military buildup in the region, including the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and several other warships in the Caribbean.
Fu said the operation highlighted Venezuela’s inadequate air defenses, in stark contrast to the “well developed systems and tactics” of the US military, which have been refined through years of experience on real battlefields.
US President Donald Trump ordered the strike, which was codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, late on Friday night from his residence at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
The operation took place just days after Beijing completed a two day military blockade exercise around Taiwan, during which the PLA conducted simulated strikes against leaders of separatist forces on the island, the first time it had carried out such maneuvers since 2022, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
Beijing considers Taiwan part of China that must be reunified with the mainland, even through the use of force if necessary.
Most countries, including the United States, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, however Washington opposes any attempt to seize the self governed island by force and has pledged to supply it with weapons for its defense.
The clear warning
Fu said the American operation should serve as a warning to separatist forces in Taiwan.
“The American operation to arrest Maduro should serve as a clear warning to Taiwan’s leadership. Taiwan must consider whether it could avoid a similar action if the PLA were to carry out something comparable,” he said.
Fu noted that Taiwan’s military would have less reaction time to a surprise attack compared with Venezuela, due to the PLA’s ability to deploy from shorter distances across the Taiwan Strait.
In recent years, the PLA has also simulated attacks on a facility resembling Taiwan’s Presidential Office at the Zhurihe base in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, prompting strong reactions from Taipei.
Military commentator Song Xiaojun, a former officer and instructor in the PLA Navy, said this year’s PLA exercises aim to consolidate the joint operations system.
“Only in this way can we maximize the effectiveness of joint operations and constrain the enemy’s decision making space, placing it in an extremely difficult position,” Song said on CCTV on Saturday (3/1).
Yue Gang, a retired PLA colonel, underscored the role of strategic patience and deceptive tactics in the success of the American operation, which ultimately led to Maduro’s arrest with minimal resistance.
“For more than four months, a massive fleet off the coast of Venezuela used deceptive tactics to mislead Maduro,” Yue said.
“He perceived it as a routine counter narcotics operation.
This strategic deception left Venezuela’s government and military unprepared, as Maduro believed Trump was bluffing.”
Yue highlighted the US military’s ability to conduct joint operations, noting how the combination of air strikes and intelligence teams quickly secured the corridor for the operation, achieving the objective with minimal damage.
Although the operation against Maduro was successful, Yue observed that it was less a demonstration of American military power than a revelation of the weaknesses of an incompetent adversary.
However, he stressed that Beijing’s potential response toward Taiwan would differ in nature from the American approach to Venezuela.
“We do not need to learn from the United States nor complicate matters. They use counter narcotics as a pretext, but we are fighting separatism, specifically Taiwan independence,” Yue said.
Beijing’s strategy, he added, would focus on the “neutralization” of Taiwan’s separatist leadership and the rapid securing of the island before any foreign intervention could occur.
Military commentator Song Zhongping said Beijing would carefully study and assess Washington’s military actions.
“As we prepare for the possibility of a military conflict over Taiwan, we will have more strategies and contingency plans. But we will not simply copy the approaches of others,” he said.
“Instead, we will develop our own unique methods to resolve the Taiwan issue in a way that will not incur significant costs,” he added.
“The concept of ‘low cost’ means that the PLA, in taking Taiwan, will avoid excessive expenditure of manpower and resources and will not cause significant harm to the Taiwanese people or to the island’s political infrastructure.”
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