Any forecasts are an arrogant and thankless task, since predictions are difficult due to the complex parameters that affect the world.
In global affairs, where numerous known variables and unknown data are interconnected, the difficulty of forecasting increases, if not becomes prohibitive, but this does not mean that forecasts are pointless.
Deciphering the course of time
After all, there are clearly emerging trends and processes, and in geopolitics these are what should be used as a guide when attempting understanding, description, and sometimes even the deciphering of the course of time.
It is clear that 2026 is regarded primarily as a continuation of 2025, but what was the year that has just passed like.
The sixth consecutive year of major upheavals, counting from the onset of the pandemic and lockdowns.
Or was it preparation, a harbinger of an entirely new stage that will soon manifest itself in full force.
Globalization as we knew it is finally a thing of the past
For now, the main thing is clear, globalization as we knew it is finally a thing of the past.
The “divorce” between China and the United States continues, and although Trump and Chinese President Xi will exchange visits during 2026, unless of course the Taiwan issue escalates to an extreme degree, it is impossible to reverse.
The United States and China are consolidating their forces
The United States and China are consolidating their forces and those of their allies, the deterioration of China’s relations with Japan will continue, and Japan’s new course itself becomes a significant factor in the worsening of US–China relations.
No, neither side wants war, but the Americans constantly provoke the Chinese over Taiwan, and at some point Beijing may interpret Washington’s latest blackmail not as a bluff but as a real threat of escalation, in the form of recognition of Taiwan’s independence, and resort to violence.
No, this will not happen in 2026, but rehearsals for such developments are entirely feasible.
The Atlanticists
And no, Xi’s determination has nothing to do with the American position on Ukraine.
After all, one of the favorite arguments of the Atlanticists for supporting Ukraine is that Ukraine cannot be “handed over to Putin” because then “Xi will decide that he can take Taiwan.” There is also an exactly opposite theory, that China benefits from prolonging the conflict in Ukraine because it “diverts US attention from the Asia–Pacific region and makes it easier for Beijing to prepare for the seizure of Taiwan.” Both versions do not withstand criticism, because the United States, not China, is the determining factor in the Taiwan situation.
China will calmly lead the path toward peaceful reunification, something that categorically displeases Washington, which, in its policy of containing China, risks, most likely even unintentionally, crossing the line between war and peace, provoking a Chinese preemptive strike.
Europe in the position of the loser
The European theater of military and geopolitical action has nothing to do with this, not to mention the fact that Europe ends up in the position of the loser anyway.
If the conflict over Ukraine ends in 2026 thanks to a Russian–American agreement, Europe will perceive it as a defeat, and the rest of the world even more so.
If the fighting continues throughout 2026, Europe will be forced to bear even greater costs supporting an increasingly losing Ukraine, making the war even more unpopular among voters, who will favor non systemic right wing forces in elections in Germany (currently state elections) and in the presidential campaign in France (where presidential elections are scheduled for spring 2027).
The United States wants to reform Europe
These are the political forces openly supported by the Trump administration, which does not hide its desire to reform Europe.
This applies both to individual European states, where right wing eurosceptics are expected to come to power, and to the European Union as a whole.
The Trumpists have also turned their gaze toward Britain, where both established parties are in a deep crisis from which they will not be able to recover before elections, most likely early ones.
Neither Britain, nor France, nor Germany faces a change of government in 2026, but in Britain and France, it seems likely that this year will be the last year of governance by traditional parties.
In Germany, however, the process will take a little longer, but with the same result.
Trump’s America is changing not only its global positioning, but simultaneously toward the eastern direction (Europe and the Middle East), the western direction (Indo–Pacific), and the southern direction (Latin America).
Its main goal is to change itself from within.
This summer, the United States will celebrate its 250th anniversary, and this symbolic milestone is perfectly suitable for proclaiming new goals and principles of existence, which could also be presented as a return to old, traditional, forgotten rules.
A major battle in the November 2026 midterm elections in the United States
The November midterm elections will be more than a simple struggle for control of Congress and a rehearsal for the 2028 presidential elections.
They will be the last “non fateful” elections in the United States.
Because in 2028, what is at stake is not four or even eight years in the White House, but the direction of the United States.
The Trumpists want not only to win, but also to ensure that the Democrats have no chance of taking power from them in the immediate future.
And the Democrats want exactly the same.
Thus, based on the results of the November elections, we will see in what form both sides will enter their main battle in 2028.
The exiled “American state” of Israel
In the long suffering Middle East, the exiled “American state” of Israel will continue its expansionist policy, trying to build on what it considers success in confronting surrounding Muslim countries.
However, a new war with Iran still appears extremely unlikely, Israel would not dare to attack Iran alone, and Trump clearly has no intention of helping Netanyahu again, who, moreover, needs American support to win parliamentary elections.
In addition, pressure on Netanyahu to comply with the Gaza agreement will increase, as Trump must demonstrate to the leaders of Islamic countries progress toward a settlement.
Therefore, peacekeeping forces will be deployed in Gaza this year and reconstruction will begin, but there will be no certainty regarding the future of Gaza or a Palestinian state.
And the broader Middle East will remain the hottest and most problematic region of the world, bloody wars in Sudan and Yemen, instability and transnational and religious conflicts in Syria, the degradation of Lebanon, and dim prospects for restoring the unity of Libya.
A wounded Iran will regain its strength and, with the support of Russia and China, will seek to continue the process of restoring relations with the Saudis and the Arab world as a whole.
Turkey is increasingly becoming the main adversary of Israel, or rather, Israel will try to present Erdogan as a new, formidable enemy.
Overall, the bleeding and chaos in the Middle East will intensify.
On matters of war and peace, 2026 will most likely be a year of peace rather than war, more old wars will subside than new ones will begin.
But does this mean that the world will become calmer and more peaceful this year.
Unfortunately, no, all trends point to an increase in conflicts, hostility, and irreconcilable differences.
The new world order is being born through pain.
Trump must destroy Zelensky to survive
The attack with armed drones on the Russian presidential residence has not been fully analyzed.
Yes, everyone agreed that Zelensky had gone mad and was capable of any madness.
But what has not been fully addressed is that his madness poses a threat not only to Putin personally, but also to Trump personally.
Meanwhile, ideal conditions have now been created for the next time Ukrainian drones, in quotation marks or not, will fly not to Valdai, but to the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
Zelensky has already made it clear twice that he hates Trump, despises him, considers him an enemy, and is capable of hostile actions against him, while at the same time depending on the US president.
Zelensky’s “peace plan”
The first time was a few weeks ago, when Zelensky’s “peace plan” was published, which was nothing more than a slap in Trump’s face.
Because Zelensky’s 20 points were a direct response to Trump’s 28 points in the peace plan.
They distorted it, nullified it, and reduced Trump’s entire peace process to zero.
Everything is even clearer now.
After all, Zelensky essentially gave the order for the Ukrainian army to attack Putin’s residence precisely during peace talks with Trump.
This is a declaration of war not only on Putin but also on the United States.
A globally recognized scoundrel
So what is the conclusion.
What we have is a globally recognized scoundrel who has repeatedly proven that his regime is deeply and persistently hostile toward the current US administration.
Their relationship began with a public confrontation and a scandal in the Oval Office, and the year ended with a direct insult.
Zelensky made clear what he thinks of Trump and his peace initiatives.
Everyone agrees that the Ukrainians and Zelensky are capable of anything.
There is also a rational explanation for their behavior.
The Kyiv regime thrives on war, while Washington is imposing peace on the Ukrainians.
What should Trump do if he wants to avoid such a scenario
He must change his entire narrative.
He is not a neutral mediator in the dispute, nor a wise, prudent leader of the Western world.
He is a party involved in the conflict.
Both as head of the United States and personally as a political figure, Trump.
Paradoxically, we are talking about two completely opposite dimensions.
The United States is participating in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of Kyiv, providing the Kyiv regime with intelligence, communications, and weapons.
At the same time, Trump, as a politician, is fighting opponents within the United States and in Europe, who have bet everything on a victory for Kyiv, consider Trump and Trumpism to be as pure evil as Putin’s Russia, and complain that the sniper who shot the American leader in the ear a year and a half ago was not accurate enough.
A divided professional personality, split into administrative and political
Throughout 2025, Trump, with his neutrality and mediation, showed that he suffered from a divided professional personality, split into administrative and political.
If he wants to survive politically, it is time to make a decision.
It is time to deny the legitimacy of Zelensky, withdraw all support for Ukraine, designate the Kyiv regime as terrorist, and help Russia achieve a quick and decisive victory.
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