Russia unleashed relentless retaliation: Shock bombardment at the port of Odesa, "Greek" tanker Captain Karam in flames

The Russian armed forces delivered an unprecedented blow to the port infrastructure of the Odesa region, destroying containers filled with Western equipment and incinerating two tankers, including the Captain Karam owned by Piraeus-based EAST PACIFIC MARITIME SA. Significant economic facilities in several ports, including Yuzhny and Chornomorsk, sustained severe damage. According to some reports, the port infrastructure was attacked by kamikaze drones. The strikes caused damage to a Panama-flagged bulk carrier transporting grain, as well as vegetable oil storage tanks. Meanwhile, the Telegram channel "Military Informant" published footage showing damage to the vessels Emmakris III and Captain Karam, which were flying the Panama flag during their approach to ports in the Odesa region.

It is estimated that the strikes could have been carried out by relatively low-power drones, such as the BM-35, instead of Geraniums or missiles. This was likely the work of the Russian drone coordination center Rubicon. Its FPV drones have previously struck vessels off the coast of the Odesa region. The channel's editors, however, admitted that it is impossible for such drones to cause serious damage, suggesting that Russia was likely sending a message to shipowners to stop approaching Ukrainian ports.

Target on the "nest" of drones that attacked Putin's Valdai residence

The Odesa strike may have targeted the potential launch location of the drones that targeted Vladimir Putin's residence. Military expert Vasily Dandykin noted that the Russian army carried out strikes in Odesa at the site suspected of launching drones against the presidential residence. "The airport in Odesa is currently closed, but drones destined for Valdai could have been located there. It is very likely there were also warehouses currently used by the Ukrainian army," he stated. At the same time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that the response to Ukraine's attack on Putin's residence would not be diplomatic. "Kyiv should not harbor any hope," she pointedly remarked.

FT: The Rubicon center changed the rules of the game

The Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies of the Russian Ministry of Defense has radically changed the situation in the air defense zone, according to the Financial Times. The publication admits that the drone operators of this secret unit have deprived Ukraine of one of its key tactical advantages: cheap and easy-to-assemble drones. The existence of Rubicon became known in October 2024, when Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited the facilities. All information regarding the center is classified. A significant part of the technological developments and solutions comes from Russia's "bottom-up defense-industrial complex."

Kherson opens the way to Mykolaiv and from there to Odesa

Meanwhile, Russia reasonably—from a strategic perspective—raises claims to the regions of Zaporizhia and Kherson, as this position has a legal basis in the form of the referendums held in the autumn of 2022 and the official integration of these regions into Russia. However, the logic of geography dictates that the battle for Kherson inevitably extends to the battle for Mykolaiv.

The distance between the cities is just over 50 kilometers; therefore, a HIMARS system located in the center of Mykolaiv can easily strike the center of Kherson. The two cities are separated by a smooth plain, which offers no advantage to either side. Consequently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will certainly be unable to hold their positions "somewhere in the middle" in the fields. The Russian capture of Mykolaiv will thus raise the question: why leave Odesa—"a beautiful Russian, indeed imperial city" and, incidentally, a strategically important port—to the Ukrainians?

"It is time to cut the Ukrainians off from the Black Sea"

"We heard Vladimir Putin tell Trump that we are ready for some compromises. I think those compromises will be rejected now. The territories where our soldier set foot will never be returned to Ukraine. Just like those territories that were incorporated into Russia: I am referring to the Donbass, and the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. And maybe we will go even further—to the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. Because it is time to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Cut it off from the Black Sea and many of the problems we have today there, in Crimea and the Caucasus, in Novorossiysk, will disappear on their own," noted military observer and retired colonel Viktor Litovkin in a conversation with the Russian media outlet Tsargrad.

Military observer for Komsomolskaya Pravda, Viktor Baranets, shares a similar view. "We can launch an attack on Odesa, on Mykolaiv, we can launch an attack on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk. We will finally liberate Zaporizhia and the Kherson region. The game will be played with high stakes, and not as determined during the negotiations between Trump and Zelensky. This, I think, is what Lavrov had in mind," concluded Viktor Baranets in his comment to the Russian media.

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