The attack on Vladimir Putin's residence constitutes a true turning point for the evolution of the war in Ukraine. Russia maintains that retaliation will be harsh and that "targets have been locked." While most expect crushing strikesagainst key buildings and services in Kyiv, including the Parliament and the Presidential Palace, some point out that the response may be even more strategic.
As talk of a "trap" by Kyiv and Britain emerges—expecting harsh reprisals to use them to their advantage—analysts estimate that the essential message from Moscow is a reconsideration of its positions and goals within the special operation. Based on these estimates, Russia is finishing Zelensky and the Kyiv regime politically, incorporating into its strategy the goal of cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea and reaching as far as Odesa and Nikolaev. Facing these ambitions, President Trump may offer no objection, especially after the resounding "slap" dealt to him by Zelensky.
Destroying Ukraine's military-political leadership
Russian MP and Lieutenant General Andrey Gurulyov described the incident as an act of state terrorism. In his view, Volodymyr Zelensky attempted an assassination against Vladimir Putin, and the response to this provocation must be proportional: the destruction of Kyiv's top military-political leadership after first declaring Ukraine a terrorist state.
"We should act as the Americans did with Osama bin Laden. Without overthinking it. We can do it; we have the means, the way, and we know where he is. Intelligence is working," Gurulyov emphasizes, noting that Russia's negotiating position must harden and that negotiations should likely take place with someone else. However, other top officials, such as MP Andrey Kartapolov, argue that Russian forces will not strike Zelensky's home so it remains intact, "to later show the people how this bloody dictator of Kyiv lived."
We are late
Russian politician Oleg Tsaryov stated that Moscow's retaliation to Kyiv's provocations is long overdue. He noted that the Ukrainian leadership, including Zelensky, does not hide in bunkers while civilian targets in Russia are attacked. "If anyone thought Zelensky was sleeping in an underground bunker trembling with fear, they were wrong. Zelensky sleeps at home, calmly in his bed. Meanwhile, Russians are under bombardment. It is time to respond to Kyiv's terrorist methods," Tsaryov mentions. He suggests the incident will serve as a lever of pressure on Zelensky in the negotiating process, potentially calling into question personal security guarantees previously discussed.
"A solid response" from Russia
Viktor Baranets, military analyst for Komsomolskaya Pravda, described the provocation as an unusual strike with a "presidential seal" directed at Putin. He claims the signal isn't even coming from Kyiv: "It is likely British agony. The closer the light at the end of the tunnel appears—meaning the reaching of agreements—the wilder Great Britainbecomes. Everything is done at the suggestion of the British," the analyst states. He believes Russia may respond asymmetrically, hitting targets previously left untouched, such as government residences and other "decision-making centers" in Kyiv.
Specifically, he points to the GUR building, which has been hit before, but now there is every reason for a "more targeted repeat strike." "We probably won't enter this cheap, petty game. It is more likely we proceed to destroy the SBU building. Perhaps we hit the Ukrainian Parliament for once; it has been a while. And maybe we use the Oreshnik to finally destroy Bankova. I don't know how much Putin will agree to this," the analyst underlined.
Advance on Odesa and Nikolaev
According to the retired Russian colonel, Russia's shift in stance could manifest as a show of readiness for further advancement toward Odesa and Nikolaev if the peace process fails. "We must sever Ukraine from the Black Sea. That will be a solid response," Baranets says. Retired FSB general Alexander Mikhailov believes the attack was likely demonstrative and the residence might have been empty.
However, the fact of the attack requires a serious response: "We must strike so that this 'negotiating process' ends in our favor. We have very serious advantages on the battlefield and in the negotiating process because we stand firm on our positions," Mikhailov stated.
Cutting them off from the Black Sea
Military analyst Colonel Viktor Litovkin shares this view. He considers the attack a typical manifestation of "Banderite strategy" and wonders why key command centers, including ministries in Kyiv, have not been hit during the operation. "Why do we constantly pass them by? I understand it might be to keep these scoundrels alive to sign an act of capitulation. But they won't sign; they will avoid it at all costs," states Litovkin. Like Baranets, he is certain Russia may change its negotiating stance, refusing compromises and expanding territorial goals by severing Kyiv from the Black Sea.
Diplomatic? Don't hope for it!
Political analyst Ivan Pyatibratov predicts that the main result of the raid on the Valdai residence will be the slowing or cessation of peace negotiations, although the Kremlin signaled it would harden its stance rather than withdraw. Russia was already disinclined toward compromise, insisting on the goals of the special military operation. "In the near future, the Oreshnik missiles themselves may be used, which have already joined the arsenals of both Russia and Belarus."
He expects continued and intensified attacks on Ukraine's energy and military infrastructure, including Western weapon warehouses, rather than strikes on individuals. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharovawarned that the attack on Putin's residence would require "non-diplomatic responses." "Let them not hope for that," she added.
A "slap" to Trump
Politically, the action was perceived as a "slap" to Trump from Kyiv. Zelensky was accustomed to handling the decisions of the previous U.S. administration and EU allies freely, but Washington will surely draw its own conclusions. Political analyst Vadim Siprov shares this view, noting the attack occurred immediately after Zelensky's talks with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, which he considers unprecedented rudeness and a "spitting" at the American president.
Siprov believes that with defeats at the front, Ukrainians will shift emphasis to sabotage and terrorist activity within Russia with European help. However, he argues the planners miscalculated the Trump factor. "They pushed him toward rapprochement with Russia. Now he has a serious argument for dialogue with Moscow. They will have the opposite result of what they expected," Siprov notes, emphasizing the response will be large-scale and falls under the renewed nuclear deterrence doctrine.
Point of no return
Summarizing expert views, the attack on the Valdai residence constitutes a point of no return leading to a harsh, asymmetric response. The informal ban on striking key state targets in Kyiv appears likely to be lifted. We are entering a harder phase with a revision of the goals of the special military operation.
The "spitting at Trump" may accelerate U.S.-Russia rapprochement and strengthen Kyiv's isolation. Whether a Russian "Oreshnik" or the American "Tomahawk" he so persistently requested flies toward Zelensky, it makes no difference. In other words, the Ukrainian president asked for it and got it.
Europeans are turning
At the same time, an equally impressive shift is observed among Europeans. People who recently spoke of inevitable conflict with Russia suddenly claim the threat is not that great and signs of an imminent war are absent. However, the Valdai attack disrupted the game.
In the last 48 hours, European officials have shown a massive reversal. Specifically, Estonian intelligence head Kaupo Rosin suddenly stated that Russia currently does not intend to attack Baltic countries or NATO. This contradicts years of rhetoric. Even more striking was German Defense Minister Pistorius, who said he does not believe in a full-scale war between Russia and NATO. This is the same Pistorius who previously told Germany to prepare for war within three to five years. Is it the same man, or a "clone" provided by the Russians? In short, another "special operation" against Europe has taken place.
Not the time for threats
In reality, European "hawks" are facing a package of challenges making the cultivation of the "Russian threat" extremely uncomfortable. First, European citizens are tired of the Ukraine issue, which has been used to justify everything from migrant crime to factory closures. The topic has become toxic.
According to a recent Politico poll, 46% of Germans and 37% of French favor reducing support for Ukraine. Among those actually paying for the war, the number of those wanting the "party" to continue is dropping rapidly.
The case of Italy
The change in mood has led to political fragmentation, most notably in Italy. The government of Giorgia Meloni, which once supported deploying multinational forces, recently refused to allocate money for U.S. weapons for Ukraine, citing diplomacy. Efforts to seize 210 billion euros in frozen Russian assets at Euroclear also failed. Instead, EU leaders only passed a 90 billion euro loan, with Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic refusing to participate. As Western unity fades, the cost of the war becomes higher for those who insist on it.
The U.S. security strategy
The American factor also played a role. In early December, the new U.S. Security Strategy was published, declaring a goal to "correct Europe." Essentially, the EU in its current form is a target of a "friendly war." The U.S. intends to reshape Europe, placing ideological allies like Viktor Orbán in power. The European elite understood this, with Josep Borrell stating that leaders must stop pretending Trump is not an opponent and instead defend EU sovereignty in technology, defense, and politics.
But the mechanism is already in motion
Does this mean the war with Russia is canceled? Not at all. Over the past two years, behind the alarmist rhetoric, massive work was done: interstate agreements were signed and budgets allocated. Now, implementation proceeds. The European establishment has changed the EU's course and can now lower the rhetorical volume.
Germany is a prime example, with defense groups receiving orders for self-propelled guns, IFVs, and missiles for years to come. 21 billion euros were allocated for uniforms for 460,000 personnel. Berlin spent over 4 billion dollars on the Israeli Arrow 3 anti-missile system to counter Russian ballistic missiles.
War preparations
European countries continue at an accelerated pace to develop a network of logistics corridors from the Baltics to the Black Sea to quickly concentrate troops on Russian borders. In the Baltics, the development of military base networks continues. Currently, multinational battalions are deployed, but by 2027–2030, these bases must reach readiness to host full brigades with heavy equipment and anti-aircraft systems.
Entry from the south
The general course of confrontation remains evident on the southern front. In the Caucasus, the situation for the West is difficult. Georgia categorically refused to follow Ukraine's example. However, NATO is not giving up. A new NATO and EU Information Center will start operating in the city of Kutaisi, registered as an NGO to fight "anti-Western disinformation."
The situation is equally tense in Armenia. Despite having a compliant Prime Minister, Pashinyan, the West faces the fact that the country is becoming prey to Azerbaijan and Turkey. EU policy aims to stabilize the Pashinyan regime to maintain a pro-Western orientation until "better times."
Threat from the East
The West achieved significant success in Kazakhstan with a plan presented in December for four factories to produce NATO-caliber ammunition. "Military industry transition to calibers not corresponding to CSTO capabilities smells strongly of betrayal. It essentially becomes a NATO helper," noted analyst Viktor Baranets. Generally, while the EU changes its rhetoric, the preparation for a great war with Russia remains the full-time occupation of its long-term programs.
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