In a new escalation of tension in the Taiwan region, China proceeded today with rocket launches into maritime zones north and south of the island, as part of extended military exercises simulating a full blockade. This marks the second day of the largest and closest war games to Taiwan that Beijing has conducted to date. The Eastern Theatre Command announced that live-fire drills will continue until 18:00 local time (10:00 GMT), affecting maritime and air zones at five points around Taiwan. Meanwhile, it released a video showing a PCH-191 rocket launcher firing toward the sea from an undisclosed location within China. Naval and air units also simulated strikes on Taiwanese sea and air targets, as well as anti-submarine operations to the north and south of the island. The exercises, named "Justice Mission 2025," began just 11 days after the USA announced a military aid package to Taiwan worth 11.1 billion dollars, the largest ever provided.
According to a senior Taiwan security official, cited by Reuters, Taipei is closely monitoring the possibility that China might launch missiles over Taiwan, as occurred in 2022 following the visit of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The same source estimates that Beijing is utilizing the exercises to practice strikes against land targets, such as the US-made HIMARS system, which has a range of approximately 300 kilometers and could strike coastal areas of southern China. The Chinese PCH-191 system, an advanced modular long-range rocket system with similar capabilities, was also recently presented at Beijing's major military parade for the end of World War II, with Chinese state media claiming it can strike any point in Taiwan.
Calm from Taiwan
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te stated in a Facebook post that frontline forces are in full readiness for the island's defense, clarifying however that Taipei does not seek an escalation of tension. The Taiwan Ministry of Defense confirmed that live-fire exercises took place north of the island and that debris entered the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone. According to the Eastern Theatre Command, rockets were launched both north and south of Taiwan. Analysts warn that a Chinese naval blockade would have catastrophic consequences for global trade. Goods worth approximately 2.45 trillion dollars pass through the Taiwan Strait annually, while the island's airspace serves as a key corridor between China and the markets of East and Southeast Asia. Taiwan's Civil Aviation Authority reported that 11 of Taipei's 14 air routes were affected, though there were no cancellations of international flights. Conversely, flights to the Kinmen and Matsu islands were suspended, affecting approximately 6,000 passengers.
Escalation of operations
At the same time, 14 Chinese Coast Guard vessels continued to sail around Taiwan's contiguous zone, with some engaging in confrontations with Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels. According to an official from the latter, a "parallel sailing" tactic was applied, while maneuvers and the creation of wakes were used to push away the Chinese ships. The Taiwan Ministry of Defense announced that in the last 24 hours, 130 Chinese military aircraft and 22 navy and coast guard ships were recorded around the island. Particular emphasis was placed on the first operational deployment of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship, which, according to Zhang Chi of China's National Defence University, can simultaneously launch attack helicopters, landing craft, amphibious tanks, and armored vehicles. According to a recent draft Pentagon report, revealed by Reuters, China estimates it will be able to "fight and win a war for Taiwan by the end of 2027," a landmark year coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. Despite doubts that have arisen regarding the readiness of the Chinese military due to Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign and declining revenues in defense industries, the report states that Beijing is even considering strikes at distances of 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles if it deems the seizure of Taiwan by military force necessary.
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