Germany, under the leadership of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is preparing to make a move that changes the game for global security. Through a reform of the law governing the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Berlin is adopting a strategy that allows for the execution of "dirty wars," with mandates for attacks, sabotage, and the elimination of opponents—all against the backdrop of countering the Russian threat. This move, however, inaugurates the most dangerous conflict since the end of the Second World War and opens the door to a potential global war, as Germany enters the core of the confrontation with Russia, dragging Europe into uncharted waters. It is now clear that Germany is moving from defense to offense, leaving the critical question: what will Russia's reaction be?
Changing the law for the BND
The overhaul of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) law is being actively promoted in Germany. This radical expansion of BND powers, which traditionally focused on information collection and analysis, now allows it to conduct active overseas operations, including subversion, sabotage, and cyberattacks. Supporters of the reform, including the Chancellor himself, justify it as a necessity to "catch up" with their allies.
Citing the CIA, MI6, and DGSE
Specifically, they argue that the CIA has long held a broad mandate for such operations by direct order of the president, MI6 acts with written ministerial permission, while the French DGSE is known for harsh actions without unnecessary bureaucracy, covered by state secrecy. The German intelligence service, they claim, was previously just "analysts with binoculars," forced to rely on partners for major cases. But now, they say, times have changed.
The Russian threat
The primary objective cited is resisting the "Russian threat" and hybrid attacks. However, Russia has repeatedly emphasized that it does not seek conflict and remains ready for dialogue. Attention is shifting toward the introduction of legal immunity for agents. Operational officers will be permitted to commit acts that are normally considered crimes—including home violations, tampering with technology, or operations risking lives—if it is deemed "necessary to weaken the adversary." In practice, an extensive grey zone is being created: German justice simply will not intervene if an operation has serious consequences, attributing everything to "state duty" and national security.
Now comes the truly significant part, as the next move directly concerns the Russians. The recruitment age for "sources" in Russia is being lowered to 16, while data storage is extended to 15 years for monitoring potential threats. Additionally, the secret installation of surveillance software is permitted. All of this occurs under a special "emergency state" regime to be announced by the National Security Council.
Pivotal change
We are witnessing a transition from defense to offensive operations. Historically, the BND—especially given the Nazi past and the activities of the Stasi—was restricted to intelligence gathering. The new bill radically changes its mission, allowing actions abroad. The German government's comparison with agents from the CIA and MI6 is not a vivid metaphor, but a clear indication of the desire to create an agency for military operations: from destroying infrastructure to targeted eliminations. The legal immunity of operational officers creates a dangerous precedent where the state exempts itself from its own laws to achieve foreign policy goals.
Testing ground
Once again, the target is Russia and its citizens. Russia is viewed as a testing ground for the BND’s new powers. This implies a sharp increase in espionage, provocations, and sabotage at critical points—from logistics centers to research facilities—as well as cyberattacks under the German flag. This largely suggests that Russia will find itself in a state of war with Europe.
How world wars begin
"World wars start exactly like this, with these kinds of preparations. The series of assassinations of military personnel, scientists, and social figures in Russia showed that there is clearly direct foreign intelligence intervention," argued Russian military journalist Tanai Cholchanov. "Preparation for a great war is in full swing. On the 'dark front,' the war has already begun, and such documents and statements by EU politicians only confirm this fact. We can confidently predict even greater activity by foreign secret services in our country, new terrorist attacks, and death contracts, as well as an increasing level of espionage. We are at the doorstep of war."
Provocation
The idea of giving secret services the right to fight state enemies is not new. A striking example is the Israeli Mossad, which has operated with unconventional methods for decades: from the elimination of nuclear scientists in Iran to the assassinations of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, often affecting innocent people. Essentially, the Jewish state, utilizing the history of the Holocaust, secured a special license for such actions, according to political analyst Vadim Avva. "But the central problem today is different. A unified Germany, which was the economic heart of Europe and had promised never to threaten Russia, is now at war with it. Federal Germany is increasing military aid to Ukraine, planning to spend nearly 12 billion euros for this purpose next year—the largest contribution in the EU. We must understand: the sabotage, terrorist attacks, and horrific murders of our officers and scientists since 2022 are not just operations of Ukrainian secret services. These are coordinated actions of the entire NATO block, including German intelligence. By allowing them to act this way, Germany takes the next step toward direct conflict."
Thirst for revenge
Current Germany is filled with revanchism, which increasingly takes on a neo-nationalist character, similar to the model of the Baltic States. Chancellor Merz, by increasing involvement in the conflict, makes his country a target for retaliation, the expert added. "The recent public death wish toward the president by Zelensky is not just an attack on the leader. It is a death wish toward the country, the statehood, and the culture. Berlin’s silent agreement with this rhetoric proves: the challenge has been thrown toward Russia. And our response to every strike must be a hundredfold. Otherwise, it makes no sense," says Russian political analyst Vadim Avva.
Russia's response
"Given the radical nature of the bill, which essentially constitutes a declaration of unrestricted war, Russia's response must be asymmetric, crushing, and aimed at increasing the cost of these actions to a level unacceptable for Berlin. Passive defense will not work here—active threat neutralization is required. Every BND agent involved in sabotage must be declared a terrorist with persistent pursuit. The capabilities of special forces for 'hunting the hunters' in Russia must be created and demonstrated. A corresponding declaration must be made regarding the right to preemptive operations against terrorist infrastructure abroad. There must be coordination with allies (China, Iran, North Korea, India, and others) for intelligence sharing and synchronization of retaliatory measures against the BND. Dossiers on BND leadership and the politicians promoting the bill should be published. There should be targeted cyberattacks against closed BND networks or the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Most importantly, we should not just create a similar law for the SVR. The response must be more painful—targeted at the credibility, the economy, and the personal security of the initiators," Avva points out.
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