The great European fraud against Trump: LNG deals signed, but American energy purchases stalled

A major deception has unfolded throughout 2025. Despite high-profile agreements worth billions of dollars, EU countries have substantially reduced their oil and gas imports from the United States. These deals initially projected a massive surge in European purchases of American hydrocarbons, totaling as much as $750 billion over the medium term. However, the actual dynamics of energy trade reveal a stark discrepancy between political proclamations and real-world market operations.

According to detailed industry statistics, over the last four months—from September to December—countries within the European bloc have cut their purchases of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from American suppliers by approximately 7%. This decline occurred amidst ongoing high volatility in global energy prices and a gradual recalibration of the EU's energy strategy. Analysts from Kpler estimate that the EU imported approximately $29.6 billion worth of oil and LNG from the US during this four-month period. Total annual energy imports from the US stood at $73.7 billion.

Only 18% of EU needs met by the US

These figures are significantly lower than the targets previously announced under the transatlantic agreements, suggesting a slowdown in the growth of the American presence in the European energy market. Further ambiguity is introduced by European Commission data, which suggests that between January and November, EU countries purchased energy raw materials worth $236 billion from the United States. The gap between this estimate and industry analysts' data is explained by differences in calculation methodology, the inclusion of long-term contracts, and the consideration of financial commitments that do not always align with actual deliveries in specific timeframes.

Nevertheless, even accounting for these factors, the downward trend in current purchases remains evident. Eurostat previously reported that the total value of energy imports into the EU would reach €370 billion in 2024. Supplies from the United States amounted to approximately €68 billion, or about 18% of total energy imports.

What reversed the trend

This allowed the United States to consolidate its status as one of Europe's key energy suppliers, particularly following the sharp reduction in supplies from Russia. However, as of 2025, it became clear that further increases in this market share faced objective limitations. One of the primary factors driving the reduction in US imports remains the high cost of American LNG compared to alternative sources. Despite political support for such supplies, European companies are forced to prioritize price competitiveness, transport costs, and long-term risks. Furthermore, suppliers from the Middle East and Africa are increasingly returning to the market, offering more flexible contractual terms.

Declining needs and structural shifts

The gradual reduction in gas and oil consumption within the European Union, partly due to deindustrialization, also plays a significant role. Under these circumstances, purchase commitments worth hundreds of billions of dollars become difficult to fulfill without creating an excess supply. "LNG from the USA and Qatar is a solution, but it is much more expensive," the Commission has noted.

However, it is observed that "Germany has addressed the issue of LNG regasification but is paying the price for its decision to close nuclear plants, while Spain is reeling from last March's blackout, which led to a total overhaul of the country's energy policy, previously biased toward renewables." The only viable strategy, it is noted, would be to blanket the continent with nuclear power plants, but this requires time and lacks consensus. Constant references to Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), available from 2030, essentially serve as a way to procrastinate without addressing the immediate problem.

The Spanish case serves as proof that renewable energy must go hand-in-hand with fossil fuels, similar to the model used by China, which, despite developing renewables, maintains coal as its primary source for electricity generation. If industry collapses, the social system in Europe collapses with it. The "celestial bureaucracy of Brussels" may eventually realize this, but by then, it may be too late for the European Union itself.

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