As winter tightens its grip on the Arctic Circle and the ice returns remarkably early, the first serious cracks in the operational capability of the Russian "dark fleet" are starting to show: access to the Arctic LNG 2 terminal is now strenuous, uncertain, and, as the latest incidents indicate, often impossible.
Moving deeper into winter, the ice on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is revealing the limitations of Russian shipping planning. According to gcaptain.com, the Buran, a Russian Arc4 class Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier, has repeatedly failed to reach the Arctic LNG 2 terminal in the Gulf of Ob —a critical Novatek project in the Russian Arctic.
Despite attempts since December 2, the Buran, while escorted by two nuclear icebreakers (50 Let Pobedy and Arktika) and two Arc7 vessels from the neighboring Yamal LNG, never managed to push far enough south to approach the station. The ice, which has already reached a thickness of 50 centimeters with temperatures below , has prematurely closed the sea passages—much earlier than in previous years. The location of Arctic LNG 2, further south in the Ob Gulf compared to Yamal LNG, makes the access corridor even more vulnerable to extreme conditions.
The Buran appears to have abandoned the attempt
After almost a week of maneuvers and failed approaches, the Buran finally retreated towards the Kara Sea—a move that strongly highlights the limits of Russian assets for servicing Arctic LNG 2. Novatek's Arc4 vessels are proving inadequate against the first-year winter ice, despite hopes that they could operate until December.
The weakness of the Arc7 fleet
Novatek has only one Arc7 vessel available for Arctic LNG 2 this year—the Christophe de Margerie—but it is thousands of kilometers away, near Kamchatka, performing a winter voyage to Asia. The decision to send it east via the Northern Sea Route is considered high-risk and temporarily leaves the project without its most powerful ship.
At the same time, Russia is using the nuclear icebreaker Sibir to keep the eastern section of the route open, likely to facilitate the return of the Christophe de Margerie. This vessel already has a history of damage from a winter crossing on the NSR, which exacerbates the hesitation for new dangerous voyages.
Operational obstacles that threaten exports
The failure of the Buran clearly illustrates the operational problems facing Arctic LNG 2, which is already struggling to maintain even minimal winter exports. Without sufficient Arc7 vessels and with the Arc4s unable to penetrate the winter ice, production and exports in the coming months appear increasingly limited. One hope is the second Arc7 vessel, Alexey Kosygin, which is still undergoing sea trials near the Zvezda shipyard. After a year of repeated tests, sources suggest it may be nearing operational launch, although there are still no clear timetables.
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