A political earthquake, historic electoral reversals, and military scenarios reminiscent of the Cold War compound an explosive landscape in Germany. Friedrich Merz faces deep erosion, the AfD registers impressive performances in eastern Germany, and the Bundeswehr plans even for thousands of wounded in case of a NATO conflict with Russia... The autumn of 2026 finds Germany facing one of the most turbulent political periods in recent years. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is coming under intense pressure following heavy election losses for the CDU and a steep drop in his personal popularity. Reuters reported on October 1 that his approval rating has fallen to around 11%, while discussions within the Christian Democrats regarding the party's political direction are mounting. At the same time, results in three German states register a dramatic realignment of the political map.
Election crush for the CDU – The AfD sweeps the East
The strongest blow for the party of Friedrich Merz came in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the elections of September 20, the AfD emerged as the leading party with 38.2%, while the SPD followed with 35.5%. The CDU was limited to 4.9% and failed to surpass the 5% threshold, remaining outside the state parliament. The development was particularly heavy for the Christian Democrats, as it represents their worst-ever performance in this state. And this was not an isolated incident.
Saxony-Anhalt: The AfD at 43.8%
Just two weeks earlier, on September 6, the AfD recorded an even higher percentage in Saxony-Anhalt. According to official results, it reached 43.8%, registering an increase of 23 percentage points compared to 2021. The CDU was limited to 17.2%, losing nearly 20 points. The AfD secured 39 of the 83 seats in the local parliament, though without an absolute majority. This picture confirms the exceptionally large electoral strength that the AfD has acquired in parts of eastern Germany.
An upset in Berlin too
The political shock was not limited to the eastern states. In the Berlin elections on September 20, Die Linke emerged as the leading party with 25.7%, leaving the CDU in second place with 18.8%. The AfD reached 16.3%, the Greens 14.3%, and the SPD 12.1%. The CDU lost about 9.4 percentage points relative to the previous elections. Within a few weeks, therefore, the Merz government found itself confronted with successive political messages from the ballot box.
Rift with the US: Merz's statement that caused a stir
Amid this already tense political landscape, Friedrich Merz also proceeded with a particularly sharp stance on relations between Europe and the US. On September 17, he stated that the era of "unconditional transatlantic friendship" that formed after World War II has likely ended, at least for the foreseeable future. The German Chancellor argued that a significant shift in political attitude toward the transatlantic alliance has occurred in the US. The statements carry particular weight as they were made on the same day Merz had a telephone conversation with Donald Trump regarding the war in Ukraine and other international issues.
War alarm: Germany looks toward 2029
In parallel with the political crisis, the discussion on defense is acquiring increasingly greater weight in Germany. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and high-ranking officers of the Bundeswehr have repeatedly warned that Russia could, according to German military estimates, acquire the capabilities for a potential attack against NATO territory by around 2029. This is an assessment regarding military capability and not a prediction that such an attack will take place. On September 23, Boris Pistorius stated in the German parliament that the country's security is under greater pressure than it has been in many years, referring to tensions with Russia and the need to invest in new defense technologies.
The Bundeswehr plans for 1,000 wounded per day
Here, however, the scenario takes on much more dramatic proportions. According to Bloomberg, the Bundeswehr has developed a scenario for a major military conflict between Russia and NATO, in which up to 1,000 wounded soldiers per day could be transported to Germany for medical treatment. The country's five military hospitals would quickly reach the limits of their capacity, meaning that the German system would have to rely heavily on civilian hospitals as well. This is not an indication that war is imminent, but rather military planning under a major conflict scenario.
The underground Cold War hospital returns to the spotlight
Even more impressive is the case of Ulm. Beneath the city's military hospital lies a massive underground facility constructed in 1979, at the height of the Cold War. The bunker was designed to remain operational even in the event of a nuclear attack. It can accommodate around 2,000 people and operate autonomously for up to 90 days. After decades of limited use, the Bundeswehr is now examining the possibility of restoring it to full operational status.
From the ballot box to the bunkers: A Germany under pressure
The picture taking shape is unprecedentedly complex. On the one hand, Friedrich Merz faces extremely low popularity and electoral defeats for the CDU in critical contests. On the other hand, the AfD has reached levels that until a few years ago would have been considered hard to imagine, particularly in eastern Germany. At the same time, Berlin is stepping up defense preparations, NATO is strengthening its structures in Eastern Europe, and the Bundeswehr is developing scenarios extending to the management of mass military casualties. Whether these developments constitute different facets of a single German crisis or parallel political and geopolitical turbulences remains a topic of political debate. One thing, however, is clear: the Germany of autumn 2026 finds itself simultaneously facing major political upheavals and one of the most intense periods of defense preparation since the end of the Cold War.
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