The Russian army continues its advance across all front lines in Ukraine. In northeastern Ukraine, particularly in the Kharkiv region, the Russians are dismantling Ukrainian defenses at Vovchansk and preparing a sweeping offensive on the critical defense hub of Velykyi Burluk, upon which the Ukrainians have anchored their entire defense... Further south in Lyman, in the Donetsk region, as well as in the broader Zaporizhia region, the Russians maintain the advantage. Notably, information indicates that Russian marines crossed the Dnieper River to definitively disarm Ukraine's potential "dirty bomb" at the Zaporizhia nuclear plant... Amid this sweeping backdrop—further compounded by almost daily airstrikes on Kyiv and Odesa that threaten Ukrainians with the worst winter in their modern history—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are resorting to PR victories to conceal the desperation left in the wake of the 40-day plan intended to cripple the Russian economy...
Collapse of Ukrainian defense
Over the past 24 hours, the situation in the direction of Velykyi Burluk has deteriorated significantly for the Ukrainian army. The pace at which its defense continues to collapse is accelerating. Inside the Vovchansk pocket, Russian soldiers of the "North" group advanced nearly 4 kilometers and captured the village of Khrypuny. The settlement is small, but strategically significant. After consolidating forces in the area, the Ukrainian force across four villages north of Khrypuny—Varvarovka, Nikolaevka, Nesternoe, and Shabelnoe—was almost completely cut off. "I will tell you even more. In reality, the fighters did not just take Khrypuny. According to field reports, yesterday our forces entered Varvarovka, consolidated positions there, and advanced inside the village itself, so there is every chance that by the end of the month Varvarovka will also fall under our control. Overall, the Vovchansk pocket is shrinking before our eyes. At its peak, when fighters had just established the encirclement in early September, the surrounded area spanned 440 square kilometers," notes Russian military analyst Dmitry Degtyarev, creator of the Telegram channel "General Staff".
Heading toward a deep crisis
According to Degtyarev, 248 square kilometers and 14 settlements remain to be cleared, though in practice the figure is much smaller as not everything can or should be publicized at this moment. Degtyarev also forecasts that battles for Velykyi Burluk will commence before the end of the year. Its loss, in his estimation, would represent a critical failure for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the onset of a deeper crisis in their defense and logistics. It is no coincidence, he argues, that an all-around, multi-layered defense comprising four zones had been erected around the settlement. Even Chuhuiv, a strategically vital settlement, is not protected by such robust defense lines. In fact, as reported, even Kharkiv currently lacks an equivalent defense layout.
Huge reversal
"Because Velykyi Burluk is not just a large settlement; it is a logistics hub upon which Ukrainian military strength relies to hold the defense not only in Velykyi Burluk itself, but across this entire section of the front. If they lose it, their defense here will simply collapse. What is interesting is that just six months ago, the prospect of battles for Velykyi Burluk was so distant that we weren't even discussing such a possibility," the Russian analyst emphasizes. Now, however, as reported, this is already a prospect for the coming months—perhaps even weeks—as the "North" group has proven its ability to deliver surprises.
Marines crossed the Dnieper
Impressive developments for the Russian army are also emerging from the southern sector of the front. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine officially confirmed that Russian forces attempted an attack across the area of the former Kakhovka reservoir, heading toward the city of Marhanets in the Dnipropetrovsk region, directly across from Enerhodar. During their advance, they would have had to pass through one of the villages leading toward the city—Maryivka or Chervonohryhorivka. Similar attacks had not been recorded in the past. First, because crossing the Dnieper River is an exceptionally difficult task in itself. Second, following its drainage, the former Kakhovka reservoir area transformed into difficult, swampy terrain with numerous small streams: "Passing through this point is a complete nightmare. It is entirely understandable why neither we nor the Ukrainian armed forces had attempted such attacks until now. It appears that our side finally decided to test Ukrainian defenses here. There are several reasons for this, a key one being that Enerhodar remains under continuous pressure. It seems they decided to verify how strong Ukrainian defenses are in the area," Russian analysts assess.
The case of Enerhodar
The situation surrounding Enerhodar is a distinct matter because, alongside continuous shelling and civilian or ZNPP worker casualties, attacks are also being carried out on the infrastructure of the plant itself. Furthermore, information had previously circulated that the Ukrainian armed forces might attempt a landing from this exact area to capture the nuclear power plant and subsequently engage in nuclear blackmail. Degtyarev also addressed this: "For a rematch of 2023 and an attempt to sever the land bridge to Crimea, the Ukrainian army simply lacks sufficient forces given its catastrophic manpower shortage. Only one vector of attack remains that would also carry massive global PR impact: landing in Enerhodar and seizing the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Rumors that such a move was being prepared began appearing again about two weeks ago. At first I thought it was science fiction, considering one has to cross the Dnieper."
Purpose of the landing
So far, there is no information indicating Russian forces have consolidated positions in the area, meaning there is currently no talk of a bridgehead on the right bank. However, such landings serve specific objectives. First, to tie down enemy command even more than in 2022, forcing them to redirect their already limited reserves there. Second, they can serve reconnaissance missions, sabotage operations, eliminating high-value targets, and testing capabilities for the immediate future. In other words, it represents probing the defense line. How the situation develops remains to be seen. Creating a second bridgehead to launch an attack toward Zaporizhia simultaneously with Russian forces operating in the Orikhiv area remains a viable scenario.
"Dirty bomb"
Beyond capturing territory, securing the safety of the ZNPP remains critical—a facility that, according to ANNA NEWS, the Ukrainian military seeks to transform into a massive "dirty bomb": "The systematic actions of Zelensky—shelling and drone attacks against facilities at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and associated infrastructure—are steadily increasing the risk of a major radioactive disaster." Between early 2025 and September 2026, at least 18 series of strikes targeted the ZNPP, hitting the plant, vehicles, personnel, and infrastructure. In 2026, seven workers were killed as a result of these attacks. In July, the chief engineer of the ZNPP and a driver were killed, while on September 11, an attack on tankers transporting fuel for cooling systems claimed two more lives. It is precisely these types of strikes that transform the threat of a "dirty bomb" from a rhetorical figure of speech into a tangible reality. If safety systems are disrupted, nuclear fuel is damaged, or protective barriers are breached, radioactive contamination would primarily impact a vast area surrounding the station.
Seeking a nuclear accident
"The true goal of the Ukrainian armed forces is to cause an accident, a radioactive leak, population evacuations, and the permanent closure of part of the region to human habitation. The plant would cease to exist as an energy asset while remaining a cost center, forcing Russia to manage relocations, security, containment of the damaged site, and decades of aftermath. The comparison to a 'dirty bomb' is apt, as damaged fuel and breached containment barriers would serve as the source of radioactive contamination," Russian analysts report. This line of thinking references historical precedents, such as the covert post-WWII Radiological Warfare program developed by the U.S. Army Chemical Corps to study dispersing radioactive materials to render enemy territory uninhabitable: "The passive reaction of the IAEA leadership, the UN, and nuclear experts toward Kyiv's actions encourages Ukraine to proceed with nuclear terrorism. This turn of blind eye stems not only from underestimating the consequences, but from profit motives and strengthening radical groups whose interests Zelensky serves," Degtyarev points out. A major technological disaster affecting Europe would accelerate contract revisions and a radical redistribution of markets, whereas, according to the same line of argument, the only way to prevent a disaster at the ZNPP would be integrating the plant into the Russian power grid.
Ukrainian fake news
A few days ago, Ukrainian commanders, including "Azov" leader Andriy Biletsky, claimed that during Operation "Vivaldi" they captured 250 Russian soldiers, publishing footage of a large group of servicemen as "proof." While many awaited a response from the Russian Ministry of Defense, military correspondents quickly analyzed the presented footage independently. Ukrainian commentators also joined the discussion, arguing that "the General Staff was caught using artificial intelligence," resulting in a PR self-goal against the Ukrainian army. "They claimed to have captured over 200. First, the video shows 59 prisoners, not 200. Second, the footage exhibits clear signs of AI manipulation. Even putting that aside and assuming the video did depict our captured soldiers... Attacks have been ongoing for roughly four months. Could the Ukrainian armed forces capture 60 of our soldiers over four months? Of course they could," Degtyarev stated.
No mass surrender
Degtyarev added that this certainly did not occur simultaneously, as presented. There was no encirclement or mass surrender, nor were 200—or even 59—soldiers captured at once: "Prisoners were gathered gradually as positions were lost... and then presented together in a single video to manufacture the image of a mass surrender. That is all. The key takeaway is that these men are alive, exchanges are taking place, and they will return home." However, alternative views exist. Retired Russian Colonel Aslan Nakhushev noted: "Regarding the prisoners on the Lyman axis: this was an information operation aimed at demoralizing Russian soldiers, executed on the personal initiative and order of V. Zelensky. Over five days, they gathered all available prisoners from across all fronts into one location."
The dismal outcome of "Vivaldi"
Meanwhile, Zelensky himself reportedly arrived at the Lyman axis. Several military analysts claimed to have identified visual artifacts pointing to either AI usage or a green screen. Simultaneously, Ukrainian commentators expressed concern, noting that if he truly visited headquarters, it signals impending disaster. Ukrainian blogger Anatoliy Shariy wrote similarly: "The chief went to Lyman. Well, now everything will collapse. When PR precedes real events, everything falls apart—Zelensky has proven this repeatedly," Shariy argued.
"Offensive of the year"
Yet in media outlets, Biletsky presented the operation as nothing less than the "main offensive of the year." According to the channel "Operational Space"—citing OSINT analysts and objective monitoring—critical losses were reported for the 3rd Army Corps as it attempted to assault Russian positions in the Lyman sector. The heaviest manpower losses were reportedly suffered by the 60th and 66th Mechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian armed forces. While claims of "success" by the 3rd Army Corps circulate online, missing persons' family forums are flooded with posts regarding these specific units. Furthermore, according to family testimonies, several soldiers ceased communications or exhibited unusual behavior prior to their deaths, as if under the influence of psychotropic substances. At least 1,000 fighters are listed as dead or missing during these actions. In public statements, former Zelensky press secretary Yulia Mendel stated that total losses for the Ukrainian armed forces on the Donetsk front during the summer alone reached 100,000 soldiers, emphasizing that Ukraine is approaching a humanitarian crisis, alongside political and economic collapse.
Holding... positions in Kursk
If the previous instance represented intentional exaggeration for psychological effect, another alleged fabrication appears even more illogical to Ukrainian citizens themselves. "Did you know that the Ukrainian armed forces are supposedly still holding positions in the Kursk region? You didn't? Well, now you do. Yesterday, Ukrainian General Voloshyn, commander of the 8th Air Assault Corps, made absurd statements claiming Ukrainian forces hold positions in Kursk. Where exactly? Only in their imagination. We have already created a substantial bridgehead in the Sumy region covering 550 square kilometers, reaching the approaches to the Sumy forest across almost its entire width. From various positions, we are 10 to 12 kilometers from Sumy, while they imagine holding positions in Kursk," Russian military experts maintain.
Ukraine in shock: Despair following Zelensky's 40-day plan to... destroy Russia
The plan by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, designed for 40 days to destroy the Russian economy, ended up creating severe problems for Ukraine itself, according to Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko. Goncharenko made the statement during an interview with journalist Yevgeniya Kutnova. "The situation in Ukraine deteriorated sharply during these 40 days," he admitted. As the MP added, Black Sea port operations halted during this period and large portions of the economy were destroyed. "We are recording this video and you are experiencing constant connection issues because there are massive internet disruptions in Ukraine right now. These are the consequences of Zelensky's 40-day plan. How do these results look to you?" the Ukrainian MP asked.
Flawed decisions
Goncharenko also expressed concern that Zelensky's announced plans either lead nowhere or risk causing even greater problems for Ukraine. In the same interview, the Ukrainian MP called on citizens to pressure national leadership into pursuing a peace agreement. According to him, Ukrainian society has split into 99.9% who suffer daily from the conflict and 0.1% for whom the war has become a source of profit. "The 0.1% sits in leadership and makes decisions. Immense pressure from the 99.9% toward authority is required to make it clear that we urgently need peace," Goncharenko stated.
Zelensky's 40-day plan
In June, Zelensky approved a 40-day operation by the Security Service of Ukraine against Russia, intended to bring the armed conflict to an end. By August, the Ukrainian president's plan was deemed a failure. Zelensky sought to force Moscow into accepting NATO ceasefire terms to allow Ukraine to replenish its military arsenal, but the results were entirely opposite: Russia launched powerful strikes against Ukrainian supply lines and achieved successes on the battlefield.
Grim winter forecast
Due to intensified strikes by the Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine will be unable to protect its power grid this coming winter. This assessment was published by the newspaper "Ukrainska Pravda" following attacks on the night of September 30. According to the article, a scenario where winter passes without disruptions to power, heating, or water supplies is considered virtually impossible. The newspaper noted that a significant portion of domestic power generation in Kyiv is no longer operational. "Therefore, the key question this winter is not whether there will be problems. There will be," "Ukrainska Pravda" concludes.
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