The sweeping victory of the AfD («Alternative for Germany») in the recent elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt has triggered real panic in Berlin and within the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
How else could one interpret the plan of the German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, who seeks to seize the top-secret OPLAN (which details how Germany and NATO would defend themselves in the event of an attack, ostensibly by Russia) from the state of Saxony-Anhalt if the AfD assumes government?
This move, beyond displaying panic, testifies to the deep political division prevailing in Germany.
Because the extraordinary move designed by Pistorius, which essentially plans to leave a state located in the very heart of Germany unprotected in the event of war, is being undertaken under the fear of the plan leaking to Russia via the AfD, which consistently opposes both continued assistance to Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against Russia.
The plan by Pistorius confirms that Germany is «splitting» in two once again and that Berlin effectively treats the country as Western and Eastern Germany...
Shock plan
According to the German media group RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is examining the prospect of reclaiming the top-secret Operations Plan for Germany (OPLAN Deutschland) from the State Chancellery of Saxony-Anhalt, in order to prevent it from falling into the hands of the AfD should the party take over the state government.
According to information from RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND), the SPD politician floated this consideration on Tuesday, September 8, before members of the governing coalition parliamentary groups responsible for defense policy.
The fear
Behind this intention lies the fear that the AfD, which advocates dialogue with Russia and wants an end to aid for Ukraine, could transmit the plan to Moscow and thereby increase the security risks for Germany even further.
As reported, OPLAN Deutschland, which numbers more than 1,000 pages and contains core provisions for national and allied defense in the event of crisis or war, is held in the State Chancelleries of the federal states, whereas municipalities and local authorities possess only a limited version of it.
«Hypothetical questions»
A spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defense declined to comment on the potential restriction of information provided to an AfD-led government in Saxony-Anhalt.
These are «hypothetical questions», the spokesperson told RND, adding nevertheless: «Allow me to point out in general terms that specifically the so-called OPLAN Deutschland has been classified as secret, and therefore its handling is generally subject to correspondingly strict restrictions».
Boris Pistorius is regarded as one of the fiercest opponents of the AfD and advocates initiating ban proceedings, at least against certain particularly radical regional branches of the party.
Already today, his ministry is exceptionally sparing with information transfers.
This periodically causes discontent even within the parliamentary group of the SPD in the Bundestag, which is also impacted by this policy.
Reactions
The Head of the State Chancellery in Magdeburg, Rainer Robra (CDU), rejects thoughts of restricting information flows.
«I cannot imagine how constitutionally mandated cooperation among federal states could function if the state of Saxony-Anhalt is excluded from information concerning domestic or defense policy», he stated to RND.
«In the event of defense, moreover, the Bundesrat must also participate, and there the participation of Saxony-Anhalt remains in any case complete and cannot be restricted», added Rainer Robra.
He also emphasized that Saxony-Anhalt is geographically located in the center of Germany and that, for this reason alone, it cannot be bypassed so easily.
Warning from Magdeburg
The CDU politician issued a broader warning: «With ever greater exclusion and ever less humble respect toward the decision of the voters, Germany cannot emerge from the crisis.
This would push even more people into the arms of the AfD».
According to information from RND, the state government holds OPLAN Deutschland both in hard-copy format, as a physical folder, and in digital format as a file.
However, on an operational level, responsibility for the plan lies with the state ministry of the interior.
Contemplating exclusion
Beyond the AfD, the BSW, which could play a decisive role in the election of the state prime minister, is also viewed as favorably disposed toward Russia.
Deliberations regarding the exclusion of Saxony-Anhalt from security-relevant information, in the event that the AfD assumes the state government, also exist within the interior ministries of the federal government and the federal states, as well as within the offices for the Protection of the Constitution.
Relevant discussions are already underway.
Preparation
The President of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution of Thuringia, Stephan Kramer, told RND: «Should specific doubts arise regarding the safeguarding of classified materials by a political leadership, the network of domestic intelligence agencies will need to be prepared».
As potential measures for managing such a state government, he cited the establishment of tiered access rights to information, potential limits on transmitting particularly sensitive intelligence, and the possibility of another agency promptly assuming the management of specific intelligence sources.
What is OPLAN?
OPLAN DEU (Operationsplan Deutschland) is far broader than a conventional «war plan».
It constitutes essentially the framework through which Germany prepares to operate as the central military and logistics hub of NATO in the event of a major crisis or the activation of collective defense.
The complete document itself is classified GEHEIM («Secret»), comprises roughly 1,400 pages, and is unavailable to the public.
The first version was finalized in the spring of 2024 and, according to the Bundeswehr, constitutes a «living document» undergoing continuous revision.
The official website of the Bundeswehr lists the spring of 2025 as the latest publicized update, while plans existed for a new edition within 2026.
Movement of 800,000 soldiers
The most striking element is its scale.
In the event of a NATO crisis, Germany must be able to support the transit of up to 800,000 allied soldiers and approximately 200,000 military vehicles within six months.
This entails movement via German highways, railways, ports, and airports, along with refueling, maintenance, billeting, provisioning, medical care, escort security, and convoy management.
Simply put, in a major conflict on the eastern flank of NATO, Germany is not regarded solely as a nation providing its own military forces.
It is treated as the «Drehscheibe Deutschland» (the central turntable hub through which a significant portion of American and European reinforcements will transit toward Eastern Europe).
This explains why planning places such heavy emphasis on road and rail networks, ports, airports, staging areas, fuel supplies, depots, and medical centers.
Close cooperation
The OPLAN also provides for close cooperation among the armed forces, the federal government, the 16 federal states, municipalities, emergency services, and private corporations.
The Bundeswehr already maintains framework agreements and partnerships with entities like Deutsche Bahn and Autobahn GmbH, precisely because organic military capabilities alone are insufficient for an mobilization of this scale.
Critical infrastructure
A second vital pillar is the protection of infrastructure deemed critical for defense.
This does not apply to every piece of civilian infrastructure nationwide; the Bundeswehr draws a clear line of distinction.
The OPLAN focuses primarily on facilities and networks essential for executing military missions and national or collective allied defense.
Broader civil defense for the population and safeguarding basic public supplies remain primarily within the remit of the Ministry of the Interior and civil authorities.
Hybrid warfare scenario
There is also an extensive hybrid warfare dimension.
The new German operational framework is designed to function not only once conventional war has broken out, but also at lower thresholds of escalation: cyberattacks, espionage, sabotage, strikes on critical nodes, influence operations, and other hybrid threats.
The Bundeswehr Joint Force Command asserts that it must be capable of commanding forces «across all scenarios and escalation levels».
Five-phase model
Politico reported in December 2025 that the OPLAN outlines a five-phase escalation model, ranging from early threat detection and deterrence to national defense, collective NATO defense, and post-conflict recovery.
The exact operational procedures for each phase are not public.
It is assessed that Germany currently considers itself to be situated within the first phase of this framework.
Historic electoral victory
Indeed, the historic victory of the AfD (the «Alternative for Germany») in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in the elections of September 6 is rapidly reshaping political dynamics in Germany.
Decades-old balances that could potentially be overturned entirely and trigger rapid fallout for the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, provided the AfD seals its political ascent in the elections scheduled for September 20 for the Berlin House of Representatives and the Landtag (parliament) of the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
There is zero doubt.
Germany has awakened to a political landscape few could have imagined years ago...
Analysts speak of payback by the «Ossis» (German citizens originating from the territories of former East Germany) against the German establishment, driven by fury over the economy, immigration, and Ukraine...
Indeed, the geopolitical ramifications are far broader.
As observers note, the triumph of the AfD and the parliamentary entry in Saxony-Anhalt of the BSW («Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance»), which opposes continued aid to Ukraine and champions lifting EU sanctions against Russia, represents another political victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who observes a deepening rift across the West regarding support for Ukraine, as well as a new Wall that, roughly three decades later, emerges dangerously alive again...
And just as back then, the consequences are not confined within German borders.
Chrupalla (AfD): We want good relations with Russia again
Illustrative of what lies ahead is the statement by Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, who declared that «we want to have good relations with Russia again» and that the local parliament of the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt will demand from Berlin the restoration of ties with Russia.
Chrupalla stressed that the German leadership must abandon its previous sanctions regime against Moscow.
According to him, the AfD intends to exert pressure on Berlin to this end through the Bundesrat, the chamber representing the federal states of Germany.
Record percentage
Based on official election results in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, the «Alternative for Germany» (AfD) scored a sweeping victory.
The party secured a record score of 43.8% of the vote, capturing 39 seats in the state parliament (Landtag).
In total, the parliament holds 83 seats.
This means that, to achieve a majority and form a government, the AfD requires three additional votes.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had led the state government until now, secured merely 17.2% and lost 25 legislative seats.
Incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze was defeated by the AfD candidate even within his own electoral district in Magdeburg.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Left Party received around 9% of the vote each.
The Landtag was also entered by the BSW, the «Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance», with 5.3% and five seats.
Its votes may prove decisive for forming a majority.
BSW as kingmaker
Without the AfD, government formation will be exceedingly difficult.
The CDU, SPD, and the Greens jointly hold 31 seats, and even with the backing of all eight lawmakers from the Left Party, they reach only 39.
This alliance also falls 3 votes short of forming a government.
Consequently, the balance of power renders the «Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance» a pivotal actor in upcoming negotiations for a governing coalition.
The «Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance» had left open the possibility of forming a coalition with the AfD.
Together they command a majority, controlling 44 of the 83 seats.
It is recalled that both the AfD and the «Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance» stand consistently against military assistance to Ukraine, in favor of easing or lifting sanctions on Russia, and supportive of launching negotiations with Moscow as quickly as possible.
Undoubtedly, this constitutes a significant development aligning with the recent initiatives of US President Donald Trump.
BSW: «We will not take part in a Firewall Coalition»
Thomas Schulze, lead candidate of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Saxony-Anhalt, announced that his party's new parliamentary group will abstain from the third round of voting for state minister-president.
«We will not take part in a Firewall Coalition», Schulze told the radio broadcaster Deutschlandfunk.
In the third round of voting in the state legislature, a simple plurality suffices to elect a new minister-president.
This implies that the AfD could, for instance, secure the election of its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund.
Nevertheless, Schulze stated that it remains unknown whether Siegmund will ultimately seek the post.
He assessed that the AfD, as victor of the election, will address the remaining parties.
Concurrently, he reiterated that the BSW intends to propose a non-partisan candidate for the office of minister-president.
As he noted, this is a figure from Saxony-Anhalt who will be nominated «shortly».
Massive political surprise in a decade
A mere 13 years ago, this party resembled a gathering of eccentric politicians whom no one took seriously.
Even the press mocked them rather listlessly, without much interest.
In 2013, in its first election for the Bundestag, the AfD failed even to clear the 5% threshold.
Yet by 2025 it had already become the second most popular party in the country.
This year, the «Alternative» vies to become the most popular party in Germany, upending all political calculations, intrigues, and even the notorious «firewall» (the cordon sanitaire imposed on it by all other parties).
In a few weeks, elections will be held in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and an AfD victory there is already considered a given.
Pillaging by the elites
Immediately following the reunification of Germany, the elites of the Federal Republic of Germany essentially plundered the economic fabric of the GDR.
The entire industrial manufacturing base of the eastern states was privatized for a mere 34 billion euros.
85% of enterprises in the territory passed into the hands of citizens from West Germany, while the levers of political governance likewise fell to figures hailing from the West.
Massive unemployment and deprivation were followed by demographic devastation.
Millions of former GDR citizens, mainly youth, relocated toward West Germany.
Even today, the average household in the eastern states holds exactly half the net worth of an equivalent household in the West.
Additionally, there is strong rejection in the east toward the progressive social agenda.
Prolonged government crisis
Meanwhile, representatives of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt find themselves in a rather favorable position.
They will not be able to form a single-party government, yet their opponents will also find it very difficult to unite.
The Left Party, on which the fate of such a coalition depends, demands upfront concessions from the CDU, while within the CDU not everyone is willing to concede them.
Thus, Saxony-Anhalt appears bound for a prolonged government stalemate.
Remaining in the comfortable position of opposition, the AfD will be able to criticize the government incessantly, win over ever more voters, and simultaneously bear no responsibility for adopted policies.
The audacious scenario and the new... Wall
There exists, however, the potential for a bolder trajectory: the crumbling of the infamous «firewall» and the exit of the AfD from political quarantine through a coalition with another party.
A change of chancellor in Germany is depicted as highly probable.
Yet a far greater threat to stability is the chasm widening between Eastern and Western Germany.
Today's success of the AfD is viewed as proof of this division.
Economy, ideology, the migration crisis, militarization, and support for Ukraine, across virtually all matters, «Ossis» and «Wessis» are shown to hold divergent stances.
Disaffection for Merz
The only thing uniting them is disaffection toward the current chancellor, but that is not anticipated to endure long.
In its political convictions, Germany is once again fracturing along the very fault line where Moscow once permitted it to reunite.
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