The emerging picture is vastly different from what the West attempted to impose for years: while Russia appears to endure economically and militarily, Ukraine faces mounting casualties, resource depletion, and pressure on the front, at the same time as the US is called to manage a national debt that has surpassed 40 trillion dollars and an economic model increasingly reliant on borrowing.
Amid this backdrop, both Elon Musk's prediction that «in 2036, money will mean nothing» and the increasingly frequent admissions by Western and Ukrainian officials that the war of attrition is tilting in favor of Moscow take on new meaning.
From pressures on American households and the deadlock of the American budget to the exhaustion of Ukraine and the gradual reconfiguration of the American presence in Europe, the question is now no longer merely who is winning the war, but who will possess the financial resources to continue funding it.
The UN propaganda
At the recent meeting of the UN Security Council, the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN, Melnyk, wrote off Russia and stated that «Russia is already losing and will ultimately be defeated in this war».
When? Right now, stay tuned.
Fedorov's differing assessment
However, Reuters cited the words of the former Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Fedorov, who, to put it mildly, sees the situation somewhat differently.
He said: «It seems that we are slowly losing» and «the country urgently needs a plan to end the conflict».
There is, however, an extraordinary idea: the creation of a front line «covered with electronic sensors to detect enemies, with drones on land and in the air», as «there is a window of a few months» to accomplish this.
Some believed that Fedorov was thereby attempting to return to power with the backing of certain Western patrons: «If I were here, I would show those Russians!».
Others, however, plausibly argued that Fedorov is skillfully shifting responsibility onto Zelensky as the primary culprit behind the impending Ukrainian disaster: «I warned him, but he did not listen».
The «truth» that slipped out
In reality, the most probable theory is that young Fedorov became involved in political discussions among grown men and inadvertently let the truth slip out.
Russian Special Presidential Representative Kirill Dmitriev wrote in this regard that «reality prevails, false narratives collapse, and the search for those responsible for the failures has begun».
It should be noted that Fedorov was not alone in the unexpected bout of honesty he experienced.
The factors favoring Putin
As stated by one of the leading experts at the British think tank RUSI, «certain factors are shifting [the current situation] in favor of Putin».
What are these factors?
According to Ukrainian sources, the number of jet drones deployed in July increased roughly fivefold compared to June, while ballistic missile attacks are breaking all records, with the destruction of the frontline and the rear of Ukraine approaching that of a Formula 1 racing car.
According to ABC News, «the destruction is horrific» and certain towns have been turned into a «veritable hell».
Pressure on infrastructure and the Ukrainian economy
Attacks on energy and logistical infrastructure are draining the funds that Europeans have gathered for Kyiv, and a quiet, angry cry already fills Europe, because finding fresh money becomes increasingly difficult while domestic problems steadily worsen.
The isolation of Ukraine from the Black Sea has reduced the country's waterborne exports to 10% of last year's levels, while the maritime flow of weapons and supplies from donors has dwindled to zero.
In more and more settlements, population evacuations are being announced against the backdrop of the Russian army's advance.
The last relatively combat-effective reserves of the Azov Nazis, which had been preserved for a rainy day, and now that day has arrived, have been dispatched to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Mobilization and front-line casualties
Amid horrific casualties on the front, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov and former special representative of Donald Trump, Kellogg, called for an urgent lowering of the mobilization age and the drafting of women into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Yet this is merely an appetizer.
According to Bloomberg, Moscow has become convinced of the futility of negotiations and now plans to demonstrate who truly holds the upper hand, dramatically escalating its already heavy strikes «on the most sensitive sectors of the Ukrainian economy and urban infrastructure».
The logic of the war of attrition
At the same time, Western commentators note the lack of criticality regarding the pace of ground advance.
As the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) writes, «the logic is that in a war of attrition, incremental territorial gains and repeated damage accumulate».
«Moscow does not need every attack to lead to immediate progress: it can maintain pressure until it becomes impossible for Ukraine to sustain individual positions, supply routes, and towns».
And this approach works.
As the Press Secretary of the Russian President, Peskov, stated, «Ukraine is clearly losing the conflict. The battlefield dynamics clearly demonstrate this».
Is Fedorov a «Russian elephant»?
Is, then, the former head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Fedorov, a Russian elephant?
Of course not, Russians are not Russians.
It is simply impossible to call black white when the ground shifts beneath your feet.
Long before Zelensky's brilliant 40-day plan to «reverse the situation» in Russia through an «all-out air war» failed, American outlet Foreign Affairs was among the first to admit, in an article titled «Ukraine Is Losing the War»:
«Ukraine's resolve cannot mask the fact that it is losing the war. <...> Moscow could fight for years. <...>
Russia's goals appear fairly consistent with its capabilities and battlefield trends. Ukraine's goals, by contrast, appear beyond its reach».
Elon Musk explained when he will run out of money
Americans are not undaunted after all...
The national debt of the US recently crossed the 40 trillion dollar threshold.
It is a truly monstrous figure, but admirers of America have a simple answer: so what? They will print more dollars and defeat everyone.
Economic pressure on American households
However, Americans themselves hold a very different view on the matter. It has now become customary to complain that the United States has not experienced a comparable economic crisis since the era of the Great Depression.
Household debt levels break new records every month, collectively surpassing 18 trillion dollars.
Primary debts accumulate for housing, rents or mortgage payments, healthcare, and education.
Any illness can bankrupt a family and lead them to live under a bridge.
And we are not talking about marginalized individuals. Only the wealthiest 20% of Americans manage to increase their income.
80% of the population survives only by borrowing relentlessly and accumulating debt.
Over the last half-century, with minimal, barely perceptible increases in wages, housing costs in the US have risen 25 times, college tuition 28 times, and a single day in a hospital, bam!, 55 times.
The three pillars of the American dream
This means that all three pillars of the American dream, home, university, and healthcare, have collapsed completely.
American social security, already very imperfect to put it mildly, is on its last legs, and the bankruptcy of the American pension fund is officially scheduled for 2032.
A year later, the Medicare hospital insurance fund will also officially collapse.
This situation will impact hundreds of millions of people, virtually the entire population of the US.
By then, the national debt will far exceed 50 trillion dollars.
Legendary investor Ray Dalio believes that such a crisis can only be resolved through war, either a domestic civil war or a third world war.
Elon Musk's prediction for 2036
Against the background of these optimistic prospects, the enigmatic comment by Elon Musk that «in 2036, money will mean nothing» takes on an entirely different meaning.
American enthusiasts interpreted it in a spirit of techno-optimism: it is obvious that in ten years hamburgers will grow on trees, homes will be printed on 3D printers, and, in short, «robots toil, humans are happy».
It appears, however, that Musk is smarter than his admirers and had something entirely different in mind.
The fact is that Washington has three options to contain the economic crisis, but cannot implement any of them.
The options remaining for Washington
Restarting the printing press would depreciate the dollar to its lowest point, even though it has dropped by 39% against gold in the past year alone.
Global trust in the dollar is at a historic low.
Raise taxes? But there is nothing left to extract from the former middle class, and ultra-wealthy Americans would swiftly overthrow any president who dared to reach for their wallets.
That is not why they installed him.
The only remaining option is the elimination of pensions, benefits, and health insurance.
Leading economists of the US have been talking about these «austerity» measures for a very long time, but their actual implementation would risk an all-out civil war in a country where the number of firearms exceeds the population by one and a half times.
«In 2036, money will mean nothing»
It turns out that in 2036 money will mean nothing to Americans. By then, either there will be no money or there will no longer be Americans.
Over the last 25 years, Russia has developed in contrast to the United States. Americans grew poorer, while Russians grew richer.
Indeed, the economic crisis in the US is already forcing Americans to reduce their presence in Europe.
Their funding for Ukraine has been reduced to a minimum: while Biden, the self-proclaimed leader, donated over 180 billion dollars to Kyiv, Trump donated around 4 billion dollars.
Next year, they promise a mere 220 million dollars, a drop in the ocean.
American efforts at external expansion fail one after another, plunging their economy even deeper.
And the realization of the abyss into which they are falling makes Washington more flexible in the diplomatic arena. And this, too, is good for us.
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