More than six months after the launch of the military offensive by the US and Israel against Iran, the conflict has entered a «gray zone» where there is neither peace nor total war.
Yet this is not the only «gray zone».
It is clear that this war will not be decided on the battlefield, but... on the tankers passing... by night through Hormuz, in the «shadow» companies altering the identity of Iranian oil, in the banks moving money under the radar of sanctions, and in intense backroom maneuvering where the US, Iran, China, and Russia play a multi-billion-dollar game...
Indeed, analysts go so far as to argue that somehow the US and Iran have... «divided» the Strait of Hormuz, thus upending the entrenched perception of the region, an interpretation that, among other things, explains the «grand game» that Donald Trump has orchestrated with oil prices...
Behind the threats, the sanctions, and the rhetoric of crushing defeat, a far darker reality unfolds: an economic war without clear rules, without absolute control, and, above all, without a certain victor...
No US victory
In all likelihood, few people remain in the world who still believe in a swift US victory over Iran.
However, the situation in the region has many hidden layers and is anything but simple.
Fars, Iran's largest state news agency, citing figures from the Ministry of Petroleum, reports that in the first quarter of 2026, Tehran sold crude oil worth $7.5 billion abroad.
This represents a 150% increase compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, when there was neither war nor a double blockade of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
One might perhaps simply rejoice over the Iranians' success and their persistence in confronting the global hegemonic power, but matters are not so simple.
The blockade
Data concerning the production, refining, and commercial transactions of domestic oil are published periodically by competent Iranian agencies, specifically by the aforementioned Ministry of Petroleum, as well as the Ministry of Energy and another related entity, the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade.
If one analyzes the relevant statements and press releases starting from February 28, when the United States launched its initial missile and airstrikes against targets inside Iran, the following picture emerges.
Since reference is made to the first-quarter results, only March essentially falls under wartime restrictions, even though, as we recall, Donald Trump constantly claimed throughout January and February that the US was strictly blocking supplies of Iranian oil to foreign markets.
Over 2 million barrels
According to international analytics firm Kpler, which operates in the maritime transport sector, in January and February 2.1 million barrels of oil per day were exported from Iran.
With the onset of mutual missile and air attacks, this figure, as American media trumpeted everywhere at the time, collapsed to a negligible 65,000 barrels per day.
Today, however, it is already completely clear that these figures were pure propaganda and that while a decrease certainly occurred, it was by no means of such catastrophic magnitude.
A retrospective analysis demonstrates that actual export volumes during the March–May period hovered around 1.5 million barrels per day, and that Washington and Tel Aviv failed to do anything to alter this reality.
The memorandum
To save face, the US signed a memorandum of understanding with the Iranians in June.
Under its terms, the blockade in the area of the Strait of Hormuz was drastically eased for two months, and commercial navigation was restored.
As everyone recalls, this did not prevent Donald Trump from issuing continuous promises, ranging from Iran's inevitable military defeat to a peace agreement supposedly almost ready to be signed.
Official Tehran did not lag behind, responding with a barrage of statements declaring that not even a fly would pass through Hormuz.
Both sides, to put it mildly, concealed part of the truth.
China as a major buyer
In this light, the structure of Iranian oil exports in 2026 is equally interesting.
The largest buyer, as before, remains China, which transports approximately 40% of Iranian export-bound oil using VLCC supertankers with capacities of up to 320,000 tons.
This represents a large percentage, but by no means the absolute monopoly that until recently was taken for granted.
And from this point onward, matters become even more interesting.
Historically, major buyers of Iranian oil also included India, Japan, and South Korea.
In 2026, these countries officially reduced their imports sharply.
Where 60% of Iranian oil is directed
Yet the remaining 60% must be channeled somewhere.
The non-governmental organization UANI, based in New York, estimates that Delhi, Tokyo, and Seoul continue to make purchases through various «gray» schemes, concealing both the fact of the imports themselves and their actual volumes, in order to avoid facing American sanctions.
And the striking icing on the Middle Eastern cake is the export route of Iranian oil through the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
Global online platform Trading Economics reports that Iranian oil, via a network of companies registered in Taiwan and Hong Kong, is imported in bulk into these specific countries, where it is blended with local volumes of oil and thus loses its connection to Iran as its country of origin.
The «gray» schemes
Dubai held in this system the informal title of capital of shadow banking linked to Iranian oil exports.
A week ago, the UAE, under heavy pressure from the United States, officially prohibited any transaction involving Iranian oil, but volumes that had already been resold cannot be recalled.
Oman imposed no such restriction.
On the contrary, it concluded an agreement with Tehran to organize maritime traffic in the Hormuz area, specifically along a route as close as possible to the Persian coast, so as to facilitate navigation control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Judging by the fact that Donald Trump subsequently threatened to bomb Oman, there appears to be no question of halting the transshipment of Iranian oil.
Around this point, we reach the climax of this politico-military blockbuster, where the real moves remain concealed within the dense fog of war and mutual accusations.
The secret corridor
American media outlet Axios writes that Washington is not in a position to threaten everyone with sanctions over the Iranian oil trade, as the White House is not blameless either.
The report claims that the US armed forces organized a shadow corridor for the transit of oil from the Persian Gulf countries.
Every night, via the southern route along the coast of Oman, a route it had supposedly abandoned, 15 to 20 oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz in both directions.
This allowed the Americans to organize and place under full control the export of approximately ten million barrels daily, which is roughly half the pre-war volume.
Trump's game
Now it becomes clear how Donald Trump managed to play so effectively with international oil prices.
The United States quietly regulated them through millions of barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iraq.
And this refers only to crude oil.
From the region, gasoline, kerosene, LNG, propane, methanol, LPG, and low-density polyethylene pellets are also exported, products with an aggregate value of additional billions of dollars.
It appears that Tehran and Washington have informally divided the maritime artery of the Strait of Hormuz into two routes, through which everything necessary is transported without much noise.
For everything else, there is the internecine confrontation in the information field...
The economic war
Donald Trump declared economic war on Iran, pledging to isolate the regime in a move through which he hopes to achieve what military power has so far failed to accomplish: capitulation.
The United States has already targeted Iran's oil sales, imposing a blockade that results in a much smaller quantity of Iranian oil being exported to international buyers, including China.
However, imposing sanctions on Chinese buyers or banks seems unlikely ahead of President Xi Jinping's official visit to the United States in September.
Kpler, which monitors vessel movements, estimates that Tehran may already hold, outside the blockade zone, enough oil to secure roughly four months of export revenues.
However, it stated that after this period, oil revenues could drop to zero if Tehran's exports are strangled.
Iran endures
Iran's economy has already taken a heavy hit from the war and faces runaway inflation, but it could take many months to completely destroy the economy.
After decades of American sanctions, Iran has developed a «survival economy, which allows it to withstand greater economic pressure for a longer time», stated Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at consulting firm Rystad.
To truly ramp up pressure, Donald Trump will have to confront the covert trade and banking networks that enable Iran to circumvent sanctions and procure weapons.
To do this, a crackdown will be required on networks operating primarily through the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, and Singapore, according to the US Department of the Treasury.
Donald Trump threatened to financially penalize any country offering an economic «lifeline» to Iran.
What China and Russia will do
However, Donald Trump's leverage over China and Russia, two major trade partners of Iran, is limited, according to analysts.
Russia is already facing sweeping American sanctions and operates largely outside the US-led economic framework.
China, meanwhile, has repeatedly demonstrated that it is willing to ignore American sanctions when it serves its own economic interests.
Paul Musgrave, associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that «it will be very difficult» for Donald Trump to effectively implement this pressure campaign.
«Trump is trying to unilaterally impose the kind of coordinated sanctions that traditionally required multilateral cooperation, and that means he has to secure the participation of China, Russia, and the P5 of the UN Security Council», Musgrave said, referring to the five permanent members of the Security Council.
«Temporary truce»
Any American plan to disrupt trade between China and Iran is likely to encounter significant obstacles.
Although China purchased 80% of seaborne Iranian crude in 2025, according to data from analytics firm Kpler, targeting Chinese refiners is often difficult because most are independent and rely very little on the American financial system.
And while sanctioning major Chinese banks if they process Iranian funds, as the US Department of the Treasury has threatened, would deliver a blow, it could also prompt China to retaliate during a particularly sensitive diplomatic period.
Yu Jie, senior research fellow in the China and Asia-Pacific Programme at the think tank Chatham House, stated that Donald Trump's threat to target Iran's economic allies «will not change China's engagement or existing trade relationship with Iran».
«Trump intends to stabilize relations with China, while Beijing also seeks a temporary truce with Washington», Yu said.
Musgrave said that any «aggressive» secondary sanctions the US applies against Iran will carry enormous significance, but emphasized that Donald Trump will likely not want to jeopardize the US–China economic relationship, given that the two countries are «in a sort of economic Cold War right now».
The official response
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian responded to Donald Trump's economic pressure campaign, saying that more sanctions «will not help resolve the issue».
«China calls on the parties involved to take responsible measures and resolve issues through diplomatic and political means», Lin stated.
The US has attempted to keep tensions with China under control ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington next month.
During that meeting, as well as two other potential meetings between the two leaders later in the year, «the prolonged conflict in the Gulf will be one of the issues the two sides discuss», Yu stated, «but it will not be the most important issue».
Russia's parallel ties
Russia presents a different kind of challenge for Washington.
Although Russia is a smaller trade partner of Iran than China, Moscow and Tehran have spent years building substantial commercial and military ties that bypass the West.
In January 2025, the two heavily sanctioned states signed a 20-year partnership treaty, helping increase their trade volume to $4.8 billion during the first 11 months of 2025, according to Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev.
In addition to sanctioned oil, Russia and Iran are also reported to have exchanged weapons and military hardware via the Caspian Sea.
On Monday, NBC News cited a European government document according to which Russia had sent to Iran by sea «drone components, ammunition, and TNT».
The US has already imposed sweeping economic sanctions against Russia.
Iran: An even greater defeat awaits the US
For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned Donald Trump's economic campaign against the country, stating that it represents a continuation of Washington's «failed policies» and will lead to «an even greater defeat».
«US economic terrorism threatens the global economy and the sovereignty of countries around the world», Araghchi wrote.
As a member of BRICS, which also includes Russia, China, India, Brazil, and other major global powers, Iran has sought to leverage its position in the organization to seek new financing avenues.
Last week, Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Abdolnaser Hemmati stated that Iran plans to join the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), which would open more financing opportunities outside Western markets.
He also said Iran believes that BRICS states can conduct transactions in their own currencies and that Tehran is exploring bilateral and trilateral monetary cooperation with other BRICS members.
The NDB has not yet commented on Iran's potential accession, which would require a formal membership process.
Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, stated that Iran will find a way to carry on despite «suffocating» American sanctions.
«Trump is trapped in a war he cannot win and from which he cannot disengage», Dareini stated.
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