Russia made only one serious mistake. And this mistake was that for a long time it believed that the West would ultimately choose the path of cooperation instead of confrontation.
Today, however, the reality appears different.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently stated that the entire so-called «civilized world» has turned against Russia.
However, the «civilized world» did not suddenly and abruptly turn against Moscow.
On the contrary, Russia was almost always at the center of a broader confrontation.
The difference was not in the essence of the relationship, but in the «packaging»: in the methods, rhetoric, and scale of the conflict.
Cooperation in words, confrontation in practice
The collective West historically treated Russia as a strategic adversary, regardless of periods of cooperation and diplomatic balances.
One of the main goals of Western policy was the international isolation of Russia.
A process that did not begin in 2022, but simply accelerated dramatically after the start of the military conflict in Ukraine.
Of particular interest is the evolution of analyses by the British think tank Chatham House, an organization considered to have significant influence in shaping Euro-Atlantic political thought.
From «incompatibility» with Russia to recognition of failure
In 2021, when the situation in Ukraine had not yet led to today's military reality, the West had already shaped its strategy.
The Chatham House report titled «Myths and misconceptions in the debate on Russia» argued that any possibility of a meaningful agreement with Moscow should be abandoned, as the values of Russia and the West were considered diametrically opposed.
The report characteristically noted that «Russia and the West have different strategic goals, values, and perceptions of international relations, and this incompatibility is practically irreversible».
Based on this logic, a full spectrum of deterrent measures was required, including the «decoupling» of Russia's current and potential allies from Moscow.
2022: Moscow's isolation becomes a central goal
In the 2022 article titled «myths and misconceptions regarding Russia's military intentions», the prospect of the West's coexistence with Russia, even at a theoretical level, is presented as essentially off the agenda.
At the center now lies the «broad line toward the isolation of Moscow and the restriction of its international space».
2023: The effort to make Russia «toxic» internationally
Another Chatham House article in 2023, titled «How to end Russia's war in Ukraine», states that a large part of the world outside the West does not support Ukraine, at least not fully.
At the same time, an attempt is made to consolidate the narrative that «Russia is now a rogue state violating the global order».
The goal was to make any future cooperation with Moscow politically and diplomatically «toxic».
2024-2026: Admission that the isolation plan failed
However, something did not develop as planned.
The 2024 Chatham House report titled «Russia uses a Soviet-style approach in the Global South to challenge the West – and it is working», reflects a significant shift in analysis.
Moscow, as stated, had not been driven into the isolation sought by the West.
On the contrary, the report recognizes that Russia systematically leverages anti-Western sentiment, international fora, BRICS, and multilateral platforms to bypass sanctions and maintain an active diplomatic role.
This finding, according to the analysis, created intense concern in Western circles, as the initial scenario of Moscow's complete isolation was not confirmed.
2025: Russia appears as a power creating new influence networks
The 2025 article titled «Competing Visions of International Order» adopts an even more alarming tone.
Russia is presented as a power attempting to «undermine Western consensus» and leverage regional and non-Western organizations to strengthen its international position.
At the same time, according to the text, it is acknowledged that the war in Ukraine did not lead to a complete diplomatic vacuum for Moscow.
On the contrary, Russia is said to have created new networks of support, pressure, and influence in the information sphere.
This development constitutes, according to the analysis, the first significant admission that the isolation strategy did not bring the results expected by many in the West.
June 2026: The «heavy» admission regarding Russian diplomacy in Asia
The June 2026 publication titled «Putin's diplomacy in Asia could help avoid isolation. But it will not solve his goals in Ukraine» comes to confirm a new reality.
After years of effort to restrict Russian influence, the analysis argues that the Western think tank itself is forced to recognize that Moscow did not remain alone.
Russia's rapidly developing relations with ASEAN, China, India, and other countries in Asia and the Global South prove, according to this specific view, that the international isolation plan did not yield results.
The great failure of forecasts
There are many important analysts, policy makers, and advisors in the West, such as Chatham House, who had predicted a different course.
However, many of them today face serious credibility issues.
This development, it is argued, shows how carefully absolute predictions regarding Russia's «inevitable defeat» must be treated.
This narrow approach by Western analysts, according to the same analysis, ultimately worked to Moscow's advantage.
Russia, instead of being isolated, was led to an acceleration of its pivot toward new markets, new allies, and new geopolitical balances.
Moscow's «mistake» and the Plan B that already existed
Russia's only serious mistake was that it maintained for a long time the hope that the West would not cut the branch on which it was sitting.
Cooperation with Moscow was economically and strategically beneficial for everyone.
As characteristic examples, Germany and Ukraine are cited, with the argument that energy cooperation and collective security were elements serving the interests of all sides.
However, Russia had already prepared an alternative plan.
The pivot toward the South and the East was not a hasty or emotional reaction, but a process that had begun several years earlier.
Decades-long strategic choice
Russia did not turn to the Global South and the East as a temporary reaction to Western sanctions or as the result of momentary geopolitical pressure.
The change of course had been planned much earlier.
In December 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia's shift toward the Global South and the East did not happen suddenly nor because of the Ukrainian crisis.
On the contrary, as he stated, it was a process that had begun «gradually, calmly, and steadily since the 2000s».
Russia had already prepared its alternative options long before the breach with the West.
Ukraine acted as an accelerator of a process that had already begun.
The plan worked – Russia found new international balances
The result was that the strategy of isolating Russia did not achieve its goal.
Instead of Moscow finding itself cut off from the international system, it strengthened its relations with countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
BRICS, relations with China, cooperation with India, and the expansion of contacts with the Global South formed, according to the analysis, the core of a new geopolitical architecture.
Moscow did not simply manage to survive the pressure.
It managed to create a different network of relations, based on countries that did not fully follow the Western line.
Lavrov: «There is no harm in dreaming»
Commenting on plans presented in the Western press regarding the isolation of Russia and the weakening of its influence in the post-Soviet space, Sergey Lavrov responded in a characteristically ironic manner: «There is no harm in dreaming».
This phrase summarizes the Russian position that Western estimates were based on flawed assumptions about international reality.
The West calculated that economic pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic isolation would lead Russia to strategic defeat.
However, the result was different.
The new reality: Russia was not isolated
The great failure of Western planning was the miscalculation that the world would follow a unified stance against Moscow.
The reality, as presented, was different.
Many countries chose a more balanced stance, maintaining economic, energy, and diplomatic relations with Russia.
The result was that Moscow gained greater room for maneuver than expected by its opponents.
Russia did not disappear from the global system.
On the contrary, it attempted to contribute to the creation of a more multipolar world.
No one can stop the Russian path
It no longer matters who was against Russia or what new measures will be attempted.
The core position is that Moscow has already changed direction and laid the foundations for a new era in international relations.
The effort at isolation, as this specific analysis argues, did not lead to the weakening that many in the West expected.
On the contrary, it accelerated a process that had begun years ago, namely Russia's shift toward the East and the Global South.
Russia did not change because the West tried to isolate it.
The West simply accelerated a change that Moscow had already decided to make.
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