In a dramatic turn of events threatening to shatter the balance of power in the Middle East, Yemen's Houthis have launched a counteroffensive, announcing an immediate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Citing the principle of "an eye for an eye," the Houthis are attempting to strangle Riyadh's vital maritime arteries and oil exports, opening a dangerous new front in the Iran war. However, the rebels' masterstroke is not only causing turmoil in global energy markets, but is also activating a defense domino that brings Pakistan — the Islamic world's sole nuclear power — directly to the front line of fire, transforming a regional dispute into a nightmare, generalized conflict.
The blockade on Saudi Arabia
In greater detail, Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia with immediate effect, opening a new front in the Iran war. In a televised statement, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree stated that the group is imposing the blockade in retaliation for Saudi restrictions on Yemen's transport infrastructure. The rebels declared a "naval blockade against the criminal Saudi enemy, based on the equation 'an eye for an eye,' with immediate effect from the issuance of this statement," Saree stated. He added that the decision comes in response to Saudi Arabia's blockade of Houthi "ports and airports" and the targeting of Sanaa airport the previous week, adding that they will respond to "blockade with blockade." Conversely, Saudi Arabia strongly condemned the announcement by Yemen's Houthis regarding a naval blockade of the kingdom.
In a statement, the Foreign Ministry stated that it "expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's utmost condemnation of the statements by the so-called military spokesman of the Houthi terrorist militia... regarding the imposition of a naval blockade on the Kingdom," adding that Riyadh "continues to support the brotherly people of Yemen and its legitimate government." While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia will further exacerbate already strained global energy supply lines and international shipping, it also underscores that the Iran war, now spanning over four months, is gradually morphing into a broader regional conflict that could engulf the entire region. The Saudis have been diverting millions of barrels of crude oil per day through an East-West pipeline to an export terminal on the Red Sea. These exports served as a vital pressure release valve for global oil markets during the US-Iran war. The Houthi naval blockade could strangle this alternative oil supply route as well.
The new front in the war
However, the real danger lies not in the oil supply routes, but in the fact that the blockade will effectively open a new front in the war. Notably, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the Red Sea in the past. During the war in Gaza, the Houthis repeatedly attacked vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, forcing many shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope rather than using the Suez Canal. According to data from the ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), the Houthis targeted more than 150 commercial ships in the Red Sea in 2024.
If the Houthis begin targeting Saudi merchant ships in the Red Sea, Riyadh will be forced to respond. Crucially, Saudi Arabia previously waged a seven-year war against the Houthis from 2015 to 2022, and this naval blockade could mark the beginning of another prolonged conflict.
Risk of a broader regional conflict
In 2015, when Houthi fighters were poised to capture Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, Saudi Arabia decided it was time for military intervention in its southern neighbor. Riyadh launched "Operation Decisive Storm" after forming a nine-nation coalition, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Morocco, and Senegal.
However, the operation failed to oust the Houthis, and after seven years in Yemen, Saudi Arabia signed a peace agreement with them in 2022. Consequently, a Houthi-Saudi war could once again escalate into a wider regional conflict. In reality, over the past decade, more than a dozen countries, including the US, Israel, Iran, and the nine-member Saudi-led coalition, were all involved in the Yemeni Civil War. Furthermore, the conflict could easily transform into a broader religious conflict between Shiites and Sunnis.
The Houthis are a Shiite militia supported by Iran — the world's dominant Shiite power — while Saudi Arabia is widely considered the leader of the global Sunni population. It is worth noting that the nine-nation Saudi-led coalition that intervened in the Yemeni Civil War in 2015 was, in fact, a Sunni bloc. All of these countries, with the exception of Bahrain, are Sunni-majority nations; even Bahrain, despite having a Shiite majority, is ruled by a Sunni royal family. "Operation Decisive Storm" was widely viewed as a military intervention by a Sunni coalition in a country's civil war aimed at removing a Shiite militia from power. A regional Shiite-Sunni religious conflict could plunge the entire region into chaos and war.
Terror over the scenario of Pakistan's involvement
However, there is another dimension to this naval blockade to which experts have not paid due attention: the potential involvement of Pakistan in the Saudi-Houthi conflict. In 2015, when Saudi Arabia launched "Operation Decisive Storm," one country absent from the action was Pakistan. In fact, Riyadh actively sought to persuade Pakistan to join the anti-Houthi coalition. Riyadh's efforts included direct requests from the Saudi leadership, including King Salman to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Saudi officials also emphasized that Pakistan had previously sent troops to assist Saudi Arabia, such as during the Gulf War in 1990–91. Saudi Arabia also reminded Pakistan of how Riyadh had financially assisted Islamabad during economic crises.
At the time, many analysts believed Pakistan would join due to its deep economic dependence and military ties with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan witnessed an intense internal debate in both political and military circles. However, it ultimately decided not to join the Saudi-led coalition.
There were several reasons. Pakistan's military in 2015 was already overburdened due to the War in Afghanistan and rising domestic terrorism. Public opinion in Pakistan did not favor sending troops to a foreign country. Pakistan also feared angering Iran, with which it shares a lengthy border, while Islamabad worried that participating in the war against the Houthis could reignite domestic Shiite-Sunni strife. Although Pakistan has an overwhelming Sunni majority, it still houses the world's third-largest Shiite population after Iran and Iraq. In fact, many believe Pakistan's Shiite population is even larger than that of Iraq. Pakistan's Shiite population (10% to 20%) is generally estimated between 20 and 25 million.
On April 10, 2015, Pakistan's National Assembly unanimously passed a resolution stating that Pakistan would maintain neutrality in the Yemeni conflict and would not send troops to participate in the Saudi-led military operation. To express their displeasure, the Saudis delayed and reduced financial aid packages and oil support to Pakistan, postponed joint military exercises, and curtailed high-level contacts for several months.
The new reality
However, in 2026 the situation is different, and Islamabad's room for diplomatic maneuver has significantly shrank. In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Strategic Defense Mutual Agreement (SDMA), which includes a mutual defense pact along the lines of NATO's Article 5. The key clause of the agreement stipulates: "An attack against one country shall be considered an attack against both." Thus, theoretically, if Saudi Arabia comes under attack, Pakistan is obligated to view it as an attack on itself and send military assistance. In fact, during the ongoing Iran War, Pakistan deployed 8,000 troops, a fighter squadron, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia under the mutual defense pact when Tehran launched drones and missiles at the Saudis. In all likelihood, these Pakistani troops, fighter jets, and air defense assets remain inside Saudi Arabia and can be recalled to action if Saudi Arabia is attacked by the Houthis. Intervention in the Saudi-Houthi conflict would offer additional benefits to Pakistan.
It would further strengthen Pakistan's relationship with the United States — a goal Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir have actively pursued in recent years. Furthermore, deeper alignment with Saudi Arabia on the Yemen issue could open a path toward improving Pakistan's long-strained relations with Israel. Indeed, Pakistan's inclusion in President Trump's Gaza Peace Council already signals a potential shift in its regional positioning. Trump has already suggested that signing the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel should be part of any broader Middle East peace agreement, linking it specifically to ending the Iran war.
"I imperatively request all Countries to immediately sign the Abraham Accords and, if Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor for them to participate in this unprecedented Global Coalition as well," Trump wrote on Truth Social on May 25th. There are indications that both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have agreed in principle to sign the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, whereas in 2015 Saudi Arabia intervened inside Yemen, in 2026 the situation is different, as the Houthis have announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, therefore, could frame its deployment as a mission to defend Saudi Arabia rather than an intervention in the Yemeni Civil War. Thus, nearly a decade after Pakistan refused to join the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis, Islamabad may ultimately join the war against them.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών