It is now becoming increasingly clear day by day that the war in Ukraine is rapidly entering an extremely dangerous period. The Black Sea is transforming into the epicenter of a battle that could decide much more than control over maritime routes. Russia's continuous attacks on ports and critical infrastructure, severe disruptions in exports and international markets, and increasingly dramatic assessments by military analysts and international media reinforce the feeling that balances are shifting rapidly. At a time when Odesa sits at the center of developments, warnings are multiplying that the military confrontation no longer concerns only the Ukrainian front, but may constitute the beginning of an even broader and more dangerous escalation, with consequences that will surpass the borders of today's war zone and involve a series of European states. Indeed, voices in Russia requiring radical, if not extreme solutions, are already growing.
The isolation
When Kyiv together with the Europeans decided to attempt to "isolate Crimea" and "dismantle the Russian energy sector", the argument that two can play this game abruptly lost its relevance. Apparently, the Russian political and military leadership began the total "sanitary isolation" of Ukraine from the Black Sea. The fact that Russian forces are succeeding... is proven by the cries heard from various Ukrainian and Western sources. Foreign Policy writes that "Russia has turned its attention to the Black Sea and is targeting commercial routes and deep-water ports to pressure the Ukrainian wartime economy". The Carnegie Endowment laments that large-scale strikes on Odesa are a disaster, because "before the war, 90% of Ukrainian agricultural exports passed through seaports and Ukraine's ability to keep three ports open in the Odesa region is vital for the country's survival". The Wall Street Journal expresses terror, writing that "the engine of the Ukrainian economy came under air attacks, the largest since the bombings of Europe during World War II".
Where the Russians are striking
The regional administration of Odesa complains: "The opponent is deliberately trying to destroy our infrastructure, our export capacity, and civilian lives." That is, according to this rhetoric, the strikes exclusively target "kindergartens". According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, these "kindergartens" included logistics hubs and warehouses, the railway network and rolling stock, energy infrastructure facilities, ship repair units, port terminals and port infrastructure, defense industry enterprises, and other "playgrounds" used for the benefit of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Target: 30 ships
And of course, ships. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, as a result of group strikes since the beginning of the week, nearly thirty maritime vessels were hit, on which... children's parties were supposedly taking place and, by pure coincidence, strategically important military cargoes were being transported. Due to Russian attacks, according to the Financial Times, storage capacity at the port of Odesa dropped by a third, while shipowners from various countries refuse to send vessels to the area, fearing they will come under attack. At the same time, several trading companies have already suspended their operations in Odesa. Among them is Kernel, the largest grain trading company in Ukraine.
Facing extinction
Concurrently, shipowners no longer provide freight rate information. This means that the maritime transport market in the region has essentially vanished. Insurance premiums from certain insurance firms rose sharply, while others completely stopped insuring maritime risks related to voyages to Ukrainian ports.
It is not only Odesa
It should be noted that this concerns not only Odesa, but all Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, including Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi, and Izmail. In other words, no one was left without a "gift". Western businessmen, as is well known, possess a highly developed nose for the smell of burning and a fine ear for the sound of impending disaster. That is why international traders are already intensively discussing the possibility of rerouting Ukrainian grain and other cargoes through Danube ports, with subsequent transshipment at Romania's Constanța.
There is no alternative
However, there is a problem. According to Western experts, land and river alternatives cannot by nature replace Ukraine's deep-water ports. The capacity of road arteries and rail terminals is limited, while the efficiency of land corridors is hampered by the inadequate capacity of border infrastructure. As the German magazine Der Spiegel argues, "for Ukraine, the export route through the Black Sea essentially has no alternative." To replace a grain carrier with a capacity of 200,000 tons, which can only be loaded at a deep-water port, 10,000 trucks are required. It is for this exact reason that immediately after the "musical interlude" of Geran-type drones, wheat futures in Chicago reached their highest level in nearly two years, while milling wheat prices in Paris rose to their highest point in 17 months.
Panic in Kyiv
Panic in Kyiv and European capitals is understandable. Agricultural exports represent more than half of Ukraine's export revenue, exceeding $20 billion annually. The maritime corridor remains the main transport channel, accounting for roughly 90% of total export volume.
An end to foreign exchange inflows
Therefore, destroying the operational capacity of the Odesa transport hub cuts off the primary source of foreign currency inflow, which Kyiv needs both to finance military expenditures and to cover basic social obligations. Most importantly, the disruption of maritime military logistics deals an extremely heavy blow to Ukraine, sharply slowing the replenishment of its arsenals—a reality that will reflect very quickly on the front line.
Disaster... Ukraine's plan
As the National Security Journal writes, "Russia turned Ukraine's plan against itself," since "Ukraine expanded its military campaign aimed at disrupting supply lines and other forms of logistics crucial for Russian forces." At the same time, Western military analysts note that the vulnerability of Odesa, as the sole active deep-water hub, makes the Ukrainian side structurally far more sensitive to losing maritime access than Russia is to attacks on civilian and shadow fleet ships.
Yuriy Ihnat (Ukraine): Why Russia intensifies its attacks on Odesa
The Armed Forces of Russia have intensified their attacks on the Odesa region for several reasons, claimed the spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ihnat. "The reason for concentrating Russian attacks on the Odesa region is the economic significance of the area, its port infrastructure, and its proximity to the borders of NATO countries," stated Yuriy Ihnat. According to him, guided air-launched missiles as well as drones of various types are being used in attacks against the Odesa region. It is noted that on the night of July 19, Russian forces carried out attacks against defense industry facilities and logistics support centers in Kyiv. According to the report, port facilities in the Odesa region were also targeted.
Full-scale war
In the view of Russian expert Alexander Prokhanov, the "Special Military Operation" is transforming into a full-scale war, being absorbed by it and losing its previous characteristics and original objectives: "The war is no longer being fought over Crimea, nor Donbass, nor Novorossiya. Russia is fighting a war for its very existence, as has repeatedly occurred in Russian history, and the purpose of this war is the preservation of the Fatherland," states Prokhanov. At this point, the question raised by Russian political analyst Sergey Pereslegin comes to the fore. Let us assume that by the end of the summer, Russia breaks through Ukrainian defenses on the Donetsk front, exploiting Ukraine's obvious manpower shortages. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will fall, which would represent the ideal outcome of the scenario. The Russian army crosses the Dnieper and liberates the entire territory of former Ukraine, including Lviv, from the Kyiv regime. And then the question arises again: what comes next?
"And then they will start driving us out..."
According to Sergey Pereslegin, a tiny bridgehead measuring "three by three kilometers"—formally considered Ukrainian territory—is enough for the war to continue. Operations would be conducted from the territory of Romania, Poland, and the Baltic states, but formally it would be considered that the war is being waged from Ukrainian soil. In his view, the West has relied so heavily on disinformation that supporting such a narrative would pose no difficulty. In other words, even the total capture of Ukraine will not mean the end of the war, and this, according to Sergey Pereslegin, must be fully understood. The political analyst describes this situation as a "trap"—one that is easy to enter but difficult to exit.
Kusturica's intervention
Serbian director Emir Kusturica stated in an interview that Europe may be drawn into a war with Russia if Western bankers do not secure expected returns on their Ukrainian investments: "World War II should be viewed as the dress rehearsal for current escalations. And if the West aims to overthrow legitimate authority in Russia, which obstructs control over the country, it will seek to achieve this by every available means."
The "return" of territories has already begun
According to Russian analysts, Europe is intensively rearming. In Bulgaria and Romania, plans are underway to establish production facilities or assembly lines for naval systems, from unmanned surface vessels to systems for warships. Today, the primary threat to Russia in the Black Sea is considered to be unmanned vessels operated by Ukrainian forces, which Ukraine manufactures in close cooperation with Britain. Another element: the US Senate included a provision in next year's draft defense budget officially designating Sevastopol, Crimea, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics as "Ukrainian territories that must be returned." This now obligates the US Secretary of Defense to provide Kyiv with intelligence specifically for strikes on regions slated to be "returned to Ukraine." This is essentially already visible in practice and presented as a statement of fact: apparently, there is nothing left to say and no one left to talk to.
War on other soil
According to political analyst Svetlana Volnova, Belarus and the Baltic states are developing into the primary theater of military operations. Nearly all NATO exercises in recent years have focused on this exact eventuality. For Brussels, it is vital at all costs to prevent rapprochement between Minsk and Washington, while according to her, few other methods exist to achieve this.
Poland and Lithuania prepare
Furthermore, Europe and the primary proponents of this policy—Poland and Lithuania—have long been preparing for provocations against Belarus and a potential conflict with it. However, a deployed Russian tactical nuclear arsenal sits there, acting so far as a deterrent. Nevertheless, observing Russia's responses to strikes received from Kyiv, adversaries are believed to fear it far less.
A major war is inevitable
Under the same assessment, a major war is considered inevitable, with the only question being when it will begin. To the question of how it can be prevented, Russian analyst Konstantin Malofeev answers: "Why do we not use the nuclear weapons that our ancestors created and accumulated through immense sacrifice for this exact purpose? To win. So that no one dares fight a nuclear superpower. So that our people, our civilian population, do not suffer. When we must choose between our own and others, we are obligated to choose our own. To protect them, not strangers." And he concludes with the question: "What else must happen? What are we waiting for? For a British nuclear bomb to be delivered to Volodymyr Zelenskyy? For him to strike first and only then for us to respond with all our power?"... It is a question that, so far, the Kremlin categorically rejects.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών