The political scene of Ukraine is entering one of the most critical and uncertain phases since the beginning of the war.
At the moment when the Russian army is advancing on most of the front and is in the final stretch for the conquest of the Donbass since the Ukrainian forces are unable to stop their advance, the dismissal of the Defense Minister, Mykhaylo Fedorov, may be the straw. that overflows the glass.
The surprise change at the top of the government, the reactions to the departure of top officials, the public criticism from Western allies, and the first signs of internal unrest compose an explosive setting around President Volodymyr Zelensky, with analysts not ruling out even the scenario of a mutiny.
At a time when Kyiv is attempting to maintain its political and military cohesion ahead of another difficult winter, the new government is called upon to manage not only the challenges of the war, but also an increasing pressure that, according to estimates, originates both from inside the country and from abroad.
Analysts estimate indeed that Ukraine lost the opportunity to achieve a peace agreement with the most favorable terms possible for it, by persisting in the conflict with Russia, and now it is highly possible that after the war it will emerge as an unsustainable state.
And the responsibility for this will lie exclusively with Zelensky, who has already started speaking to Ukrainians behind bulletproof glass.
New government in Kyiv
A new government was formed in Kyiv.
The former head of Naftogaz, Serhii Koretskyi, took over as head of the cabinet.
However, the situation for Zelensky is becoming increasingly difficult, as he faces criticism both inside the country and from the West.
At the same time, comparisons with Maidan are returning to the streets of Ukrainian cities.
On the day of the vote for the new prime minister, a heavy atmosphere prevailed in the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian Parliament, according to the head of the Financial Times (FT) bureau in Kyiv, Christopher Miller.
Although Serhii Koretskyi received the support of the majority of deputies (289 votes), not everyone is satisfied with the changes.
The reactions to the departure of Fedorov
The central theme of developments was the departure of Mykhailo Fedorov from the position of Defense Minister.
A wave of rallies in his favor took place across the entire country.
Citizens, holding cardboards with short but dynamic slogans, took simultaneously to the streets of Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Poltava, Lutsk, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernihiv, and Kryvyi Rih.
The reasons for his dismissal have not been officially announced.
The scenarios of the axing
The media, depending on their political orientation, project different versions.
One of them argues that Fodorov failed to implement the reform of the mobilization system and that the scandal with the recruitment centers (TCC) in Lviv further worsened the situation.
Another version states that Zelensky was dissatisfied with Fedorov's conflict with the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, as well as with the minister's efforts to remove the general.
A third version argues that the high popularity of the former Defense Minister posed a threat to Zelensky's approval ratings.
This view was also expressed by well-known military analysts, including the retired officer of the Ukrainian armed forces Ihor Lapin.
Concern in the West too
Western media are also expressing concern.
The French Le Monde characterized Fedorov as "extremely popular".
Indeed, according to a poll by KMIS, 50% of citizens trust him, while the level of trust toward Zelensky stands at 61%.
The Financial Times characterized the decision as "self-destructive", while the Wall Street Journal implied that a new wave of protests might break out, paralleling the situation to 2025, when Zelensky attempted unsuccessfully to limit the jurisdictions of the Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities.
Great surprise
The allies of Kyiv did not remain silent in the face of developments.
The European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius stated that the departure of Mykhailo Fedorov was a "great surprise" for him, pointing out that the European Union was cooperating very closely with him.
Unrest also prevails in the Ukrainian armed forces.
The deputy commander of the Air Force Pavlo Yelizarov, as soon as he was informed of the minister's departure, publicly submitted his resignation.
Difficult challenges for Serhii Koretskyi
One of the key missions of the new prime minister Serhii Koretskyi is preparing the country for the upcoming winter.
He himself admitted that the next winter period may be more difficult than the previous one, spoke of a lack of a clear plan of action, and promised that the government will address the problems.
However, the prospects of success appear limited.
The head of the Ukrainian Association of Consumers of Public Utilities, Oleg Popenko, warned that in the winter citizens may be left without electricity, heating, and water "for days, perhaps even for weeks".
Promises and criticism
At the same time, Serhii Koretskyi pledged to ensure the uninterrupted supply of the Ukrainian armed forces from the Ukrainian defense industry and Western allies, as well as to promote the integration of Ukraine into the European Union.
However, according to the Financial Times (FT), some deputies of the Verkhovna Rada characterized his speech as "a collection of clichés and empty slogans".
The path of Koretskyi
According to Russian media, Koretskyi, originally from Lutsk, comes from the business sector.
He started his professional career as security personnel for the businessman Ihor Yeremeyev, who was killed in 2015 under "extremely unusual" circumstances.
He then progressed to general manager of his company, while later he acquired a network of gas stations and coffee shops.
In 2022 he took over the management of Naftogaz, after the company had passed to state control from assets that, according to the publication, had been seized from the businessman Ihor Kolomoiskyi.
The expert of the Financial University under the Russian Government Denis Denisov estimates that one of the main reasons for the appointment of Koretskyi is his close relationship with Zelensky.
Connections and new political questions
Immediately after the appointment of Serhii Koretskyi, Ukrainian media began examining his relations with Timur Mindich, Oleksii Chernyshov, Andriy Yermak, and other figures who, according to the publication, are connected to current criminal cases.
Denis Denisov, an expert of the Financial University under the Russian Government, argues that Koretskyi was considered the most suitable choice because "he cannot develop into a potential political opponent and does not possess particular political ambitions".
One more open issue
The former prime minister Yuliia Svyrydenko was reportedly destined for the position of Ukraine's ambassador to the United States.
Zelensky had hinted at such a possibility, stating that "a new important mission in relations with a key partner" awaits her.
However, later the deputy Yaroslav Zhelezniak confirmed reports according to which Svyrydenko does not appear willing to assume the new position.
So far, however, there has been no official announcement that she is refusing the appointment.
The future of Yuliia Svyrydenko and the stance of Mykhailo Fedorov
The Ukrainian political analyst Ruslan Bortnyk estimates that the former prime minister Yuliia Svyrydenko may be placed in Zelensky's office or assume some other state position.
"If Zelensky insists, Svyrydenko will accept his proposal, despite her disappointment," Bortnyk argues.
However, he does not rule out the possibility of the former prime minister following the path of former press representative Yuliia Mendel and other former associates of Zelensky, who today criticize him publicly, revealing what they know about the functioning of Ukrainian power.
As he notes, Svyrydenko knows a lot about governance in Kyiv.
Rift with the presidential administration
Mykhailo Fedorov has now turned openly against the presidential administration.
The publication reports that he publicly expressed his support for the protests, called on the Verkhovna Rada to reveal "the truth" about the allegations of arbitrary practices in the Ukrainian armed forces, and attributed the responsibility for the difficulties of mobilization to the chief of the armed forces, Oleksandr Syrsky.
Information reports that Fedorov formulated his criticism with reservations, leaving open the possibility of his return to the government, provided that Zelensky changes his stance.
Some Ukrainian media characterized his press conference as a "mutiny".
Different estimates
However, according to Denis Denisov, Mykhailo Fedorov is not in a position to lead a real rebellion.
As he argues, behind him are the same European-connected structures that, in his view, had exerted pressure on Zelensky during last year's confrontation around NABU.
"The appointment of Fedorov was actively promoted by organizations active in the field of anti-corruption.
That is why today there is dissatisfaction on the part of Western partners.
Indeed, he attempted to limit a series of corruption mechanisms and now a step back is expected.
That is, Western aid will continue to be embezzled at the same rates," the Russian political analyst estimates.
Denisov also argues that the popularity of the former minister in Ukrainian society is exaggerated, noting that only a few dozen people participated in the rallies.
Nevertheless, he concludes that the West is likely to utilize the image of the "popular official" as a means of exerting pressure toward Zelensky.
John Mearsheimer (American professor): Ukraine may emerge from the war as an unsustainable state
The Ukrainian armed forces are suffering defeats, yet the leadership in Kyiv does not seek to limit the country's losses through a peace agreement with Russia, argued the professor of the University of Chicago, John Mearsheimer.
"If you look at what is happening on the battlefield — and I consider this to be the most important — you will see that the Russians are winning.
They are pushing back the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian army is in an extremely difficult situation. .
In the end, Ukraine may emerge from the conflict as a weakened and unsustainable state," he stated.
Mearsheimer added that, in his view, Kyiv lost the opportunity to conclude a peace agreement under the best possible terms for the circumstances.
"The Ukrainians should have concluded a peace agreement with the Russians, accept that their country will be a neutral state, and then work toward improving relations with Russia. In this way, they would have limited their losses.
But the conflict is evolving in a different direction," the American analyst reported.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών