The military escalation of the United States toward Iran seems to be only one side of a much broader strategy of Donald Trump, which combines the use of military power with the pursuit of economic and geopolitical concessions.
While Washington considers new strikes, even against critical energy and nuclear infrastructure of Iran, the American president simultaneously attempts to turn every international crisis into leverage to strengthen American influence and the economic interests of the USA.
From the Strait of Hormuz and the oil installations of Iran to Venezuela, the rare earths of Ukraine, and relations with allies in NATO, the new American strategy is shaped around a doctrine where power is exerted not only for security reasons, but also as a means of economic negotiation and geopolitical redistribution of power.
At the same time, Iran, understanding the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for its future and its power, warns the USA in the clearest way that if they indeed "strike" critical infrastructure in energy and transport as Trump threatens, then nothing will be left standing for the Americans in the wider region of the Persian Gulf.
Toward escalation of the war
The President of the USA, Donald Trump, is receiving proposals for the expansion of the military operation in Iran, according to two people familiar with the matter, as reported by the American network CNN.
The issue was discussed, among other things, during a meeting in the Situation Room on Tuesday, 14/7, focusing on ways to intensify efforts to limit Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has stated publicly that he intends to intensify strikes against Iran next week, including threats of attacks on civilian infrastructure and, potentially, on energy facilities.
What he discusses behind the scenes
Behind the scenes, he is discussing various scenarios for future military operations with senior officials, seeking to find ways to exert pressure so that Iran accepts American demands, as efforts so far have failed to bend Tehran's stance.
Targeting Hormuz
For the past five days, the United States has been carrying out daily attacks on Iranian positions along the Strait of Hormuz.
On Wednesday, 16/7, the small island of Greater Tunb, which is located in the Strait of Hormuz and is used as a base by the Iranian armed forces, also became a target.
Officials stated that the attacks aim to reduce Iran's capability to obstruct the passage of commercial ships through the sea route.
However, the destruction of targets such as missile launchers and radar systems could also pave the way for broader military operations being considered by Trump, according to the same officials.
Scenarios of invasion of Kharg Island
According to the two sources, Trump is now considering the possibility of an operation to seize Kharg Island, Iran's most important oil export hub, as well as bombings of underground facilities at Pickaxe Mountain, which are believed to be linked to the Iranian nuclear program.
He confirmed his interest in both targets in interviews he granted this week, although he hinted that a ground operation to seize Kharg could be undertaken by another country.
“We have others who will carry out the ground operation on our behalf,” he told Fox News, without providing further details.
Ready to escalate
Trump has in the past hinted, both publicly and privately, that he was ready to escalate the situation, before ultimately backing down.
However, he now appears increasingly frustrated by the fact that Iran is not backing down on American “red lines” regarding its nuclear program and continues to restrict navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The American president has alternated his positions, at times expressing doubts about Iran's intention to negotiate an agreement and at other times arguing that Tehran is ready to return to the negotiating table.
They want to compromise
“They want to make a deal so badly.
They don’t like what we are doing and they indeed want to compromise.
We’ll see if we make a deal with them or if we just finish it,” he stated on Wednesday, during a defense industry event in Pennsylvania.
A week ago, Trump had expressed a different view, arguing that it was a “waste of time” to continue talks with Iran.
What Vice President Vance says
Speaking in a three-hour interview with Joe Rogan on Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance, the administration's chief negotiator with Iran, stated that the war cannot be won solely by military means.
“You can bomb them, destroy their radars, neutralize part of their drones and missiles, but it is very easy for them to keep attacking ships in the Strait,” he said.
“That’s why there must also be a willingness for dialogue and to try to find a solution to the problem,” said J.D. Vance.
Iran's warning: “Strike our infrastructure and we will destroy whatever is left in the region”
But Iran also maintains an extremely tough stance and hastens to warn the Americans.
The spokesperson of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Strategic Headquarters, Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari, issued a stern warning to Iran's adversaries, stating that in the event of an attack against Iranian infrastructure, Tehran will respond by striking all remaining infrastructure in the region.
According to the Iranian news agency Mehr, Ebrahim Zolfaghari stated: “Strike our infrastructure and we will strike every piece of infrastructure left in the region.”
As he argued, the USA is continuing its “criminal policy” and the destabilization of the region.
Zolfaghari also underlined that Iran is not going, “under any circumstances,” to allow the USA, as an extra-regional power, to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, characterizing this issue as a “non-negotiable red line” of the country.
At the same time, he warned that if recent threats by the president of the USA for strikes on Iran's infrastructure are implemented, then “whatever is left standing in the region will find itself targeted by the powerful strikes of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to such an extent that no trace will remain, as if it never existed.”
“The ignorant enemy must know that for us this is the moment of decisive action, not of self-restraint.
The response of the Iranian Armed Forces will not be equivalent, but superior.
The strikes will be more severe, more extensive, and more destructive than ever.
The wrath of a nation that never submitted will burn the aggressor,” concluded Ebrahim Zolfaghari.
Akraminia (spokesperson of the Iranian army): If the USA continues, the war will expand to new fronts
The spokesperson of the Iranian army, Mohammad Akraminia, warned that the attacks “will expand to new areas” if the USA continues its strikes.
“If the American aggression continues, the war will expand to new fronts,” he stated in a post on Telegram.
“A major part of the capabilities of the armed forces has not yet been revealed.
If any hostile actions against the country continue, Iran's response will be appropriate to the circumstances and will exceed the expectations of the enemy, opening new fronts of confrontation,” he characteristicly reported.
He also noted that Iran does not seek conflict with neighboring countries of the Middle East.
“Iran has no intention to come into confrontation with its neighboring countries or with the Islamic states of the region.
Historically, it has stressed the need for expanding cooperation and strengthening brotherly relations with the states of the region,” stated Mohammad Akraminia.
“The Armed Forces consider their supreme mission to be the protection of the security, interests, and dignity of the Iranian nation and will spare no effort to fulfill this responsibility,” he added.
“America First”
President Donald Trump was elected promising that he would put America first.
However, he has governed with a view to bringing economic benefits to the United States.
In Trump's transactional view of the world, the USA resembles a contracting party in a business deal more than a beacon of capitalism and democracy.
Foreign Policy 2.0
Efforts to impose tolls, tariffs, or even acquire control over natural resources in foreign countries, both allies and adversaries, constitute a key element of the foreign policy of his second term (Trump 2.0), during which the president has also expressed expansionist ambitions for Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal.
Of course, such pursuits do not always evolve according to plan.
The world already witnessed this from Trump's first term, when Mexico never paid for the construction of the border wall, as he had repeatedly promised.
The 4 moves
Nevertheless, the military power and economic strength of the USA still, in his view, constitute means that can be leveraged to the benefit of Washington.
In recent months:
1) He proposed, and subsequently abandoned, the imposition of a 20% fee for American protection of cargoes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
2) He took control of the sales of Venezuela's oil, supporting what remained of the authoritarian regime he had previously weakened, while simultaneously marginalizing the democratic opposition.
3) He delayed the inauguration of the new bridge to Detroit, seeking to extract additional concessions from Canada, even though Canada had fully funded its construction.
4) He has adopted a friendlier stance toward Ukraine, arguing that now the USA has an "interest" in the country's rare earth deposits.
Tolls in the Strait of Hormuz?
Leaving aside the legal issue of imposing tolls in international waters, as well as the fact that Iran had already created its own charging system, the idea of ships paying for protection can be considered either common sense or a practice reminiscent of organized crime, depending on one's perspective, reports CNN in its analysis.
Ultimately, however, the plan did not proceed.
Within a single day, Trump abandoned the idea of tolls and announced that the USA would receive a different kind of compensation, this time through trade agreements and investments by the Gulf states, instead of direct payments from the shipping companies.
Compensation…
“Based on highly productive talks with the leadership of the Middle East, I decided to replace the 20% compensation fee in favor of the United States with trade and investment agreements that various Gulf states will carry out in the United States,” Trump wrote in a post on social media.
The basic idea he seems to be attempting to promote is that the United States will reap some compensation from the military involvement they started and which has so far not ended.
The Pentagon has not announced an official cost for the war with Iran, but independent organizations estimate that it has already exceeded 40 billion dollars and continues to rise.
At the same time, American citizens are experiencing the economic consequences through increased fuel prices.
The investments of 19 trillion dollars
Trump did not specify what kind of investments the Gulf states will carry out in the USA after abandoning the idea of tolls.
However, he continues to argue that he has secured foreign investments amounting to 19 trillion dollars.
The CNN journalist Daniel Dale has repeatedly investigated this claim without finding evidence to confirm it.
Nevertheless, Trump continues to repeat it.
The case of the bridge with Canada
In February, Trump further strained relations with Canada by demanding that the United States acquire co-ownership of the Gordie Howe bridge, which connects Detroit with Windsor of Ontario, even though the project was funded by Canada.
The launch of the bridge's operation was delayed as the two countries renegotiated the agreement.
Under the new arrangement, Canada will share the net revenues from the tolls for the next 15 years with a special economic development fund, although the details remain unclear.
The Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, defended the agreement, pointing out that the word “net” is decisive.
“We share the revenues only after Canada has been paid back,” he stated.
“There won’t be many net profits left to be shared,” he characteristicly noted.
The issue of tariffs
A central pillar of Trump's economic policy was the imposition of tariffs on imports.
Although most economists argue that the cost of tariffs is ultimately passed on to American consumers through higher prices, Trump insists that foreign countries pay it.
At the same time, the American government is returning sums from tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled were collected illegally.
In June alone, more than 49 billion dollars were returned.
Trump has stated that he is looking for new ways to impose taxes on imports, while lawsuits from businesses and individuals seeking refunds are increasing.
Venezuela
Despite the fact that the USA arrested former president Nicolás Maduro earlier this year, the rest of his regime continues to rule under the supervision of the Trump administration, which has taken control of the country's oil exports.
The details regarding the size and extent of these exports remain unclear, causing concerns even to Republican MPs due to the lack of transparency.
At the same time, the democratic opposition has essentially been excluded from the process, even though its leader, María Corina Machado, had offered Trump the Nobel Peace Prize that had been awarded to her, before the American intervention against Maduro.
According to a publication of the New York Times, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, exerts significant control over developments from Washington, cooperating with the existing regime.
Elliot Abrams, special envoy for Venezuela during Trump's first term, argued that the administration prioritizes access to oil instead of democratic reforms.
“The priority is investments in Venezuela and mainly the increase of oil production, while recovery and democracy are postponed indefinitely into the future,” he wrote.
“This is a policy that ultimately undermines its own purpose,” pointed out Abrams.
Ukraine and the rare earths
Trump surprised both American defense companies and the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, when, during the NATO Summit, he stated that Ukraine should be able to manufacture Patriot interceptor systems under license.
His more positive stance toward Ukraine seems to be linked to his view that the USA now has an economic interest in the country, due to its natural resources.
“We now have a small stake in this country, because we have some land there, but mainly we have minerals.
This is one of the richest regions in the world in rare earths,” he stated, referring to the joint investment agreement signed last year between the two countries.
However, the Ukrainian government argues that it still retains full ownership of its natural resources.
NATO and Europe
Trump's main criticism of NATO concerns that European countries, in his view, were not spending enough on their defense.
Although he presents the issue as if they owed to pay the United States, in reality, the member countries have committed to allocate a specific percentage of their GDP for defense expenditures.
The CNN analyst Fareed Zakaria argued that Trump deserves credit because he pushed European countries to increase their defense expenditures, but warned that this will also have unforeseen consequences, such as the gradual reduction of European dependence on the United States.
“We set in motion a chain reaction and, with the passage of time, Americans will nostalgicly long for the old NATO — not because it was fair, but because it was the most successful system of collective security the world has ever known, with the United States at its center,” stated Zakaria.
According to him, the same may apply to the overall image of the United States in the world, as Trump alters the way other countries perceive the American role on the international stage.
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