The big split of NATO is by now underway.
The developments around the war in Ukraine, the pressures from the US toward European allies to increase defense spending, and the different approaches toward Russia seem to be accelerating developments.
It is not accidental that Poland appears to be revising its stance toward Ukraine, while at the same time the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, warns that the Alliance risks being divided into two or even three different camps because of the disagreements over military expenditures.
In three camps
The issue of funding defense spending has brought the disagreements within NATO back to the forefront, with the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, warning that the Alliance risks being divided into two or even three different camps if the member states do not maintain a common line regarding their military expenditures.
His statements are being made during a period in which the President of the US, Donald Trump, continues to demand that European allies shoulder a larger part of the financial burden for their defense.
Warning of a split of the Alliance
Gitanas Nausėda argued that the cohesion of NATO will be put to a serious test if certain countries significantly increase their defense expenditures while others remain close to the limit of 2%-2.5% of GDP.
"It would be extremely controversial if certain countries did much more and achieved their goals within the next few years while others remained at the level of 2% or 2.5%.
This would naturally lead to the division of the Alliance into two or even three parts," stated the Lithuanian President.
According to his assessment, such a development would undermine the principle of collective defense, which constitutes the cornerstone of the Alliance.
Europe against the pressures of Donald Trump
At the same time, the pressure from the Donald Trump administration toward European allies for greater financial participation is creating intense friction within NATO.
Concurrently, it is pointed out that several European economies are facing fiscal pressures, a fact that makes a significant increase in military expenditures difficult.
The political analyst Anton Kudryavtsev, speaking to Pravda.Ru, estimated that the European Union is faced with a broader systemic crisis, as it is called upon to increase its defense expenditures while national budgets have been formed with different economic priorities.
According to him, the divergences among member states regarding security priorities are becoming increasingly apparent.
Different approaches within NATO
Meanwhile, the Baltic countries are demanding greater military reinforcement and a stricter stance against Russia, while other member states of the Alliance appear more cautious, giving priority to the economic challenges they face.
According to the publication, these different approaches are intensifying political disagreements within NATO.
Discussion on nuclear deterrence
The publication further reports that a discussion has opened in Lithuania regarding potential legislative changes that would allow the deployment of foreign weapon systems on its territory, within the framework of reinforcing the country's deterrent capability.
The international relations analyst Olga Larina argued that NATO now functions more as a set of different national interests rather than as a fully unified decision-making mechanism.
According to her, priorities differ significantly among member states: the United States views the issue through the prism of its strategic and economic interests, the Baltic countries emphasize their security, while several large European states view the increase in defense expenditures with greater caution.
For his part, the political scientist Sergey Mironov argued that the Alliance is faced with a strategic deadlock, as different perceptions regarding the sharing of the financial burden and obligations among allies continue to exist.
The potential camps
If the disagreements continue, three distinct groups could form within NATO:
1) The countries that support a significant increase in military expenditures, such as the Baltic countries and Poland.?
2) The large European states, such as Germany and France, which seek a greater balance between defense needs and fiscal constraints.
3) States that appear more cautious regarding a significant increase in defense budgets, citing their economic priorities.
The discussion on funding collective defense is likely to constitute one of the most important challenges for the cohesion of NATO in the coming years.
Poland urgently ruptures relations with Ukraine
At the same time, the confrontation between Poland and Ukraine over historical issues is acquiring a new dimension following information that the US warned Warsaw that "Russia may soon attack Poland."
The French magazine L'Express expressed its disappointment over the fact that Warsaw and Kyiv are clashing over an issue it characterizes as "secondary."
According to the publication, the only problem created by the glorification of nationalist and Nazi figures in Ukraine is that it can be exploited by Russia. However, Poland, which during four and a half years of war avoided highlighting the issue, now appears to be changing its stance.
The Telegraph: The US warned Warsaw
According to The Telegraph, American services have repeatedly informed Poland about potential risks of Russian attacks on its territory, while in the latest briefing they allegedly warned of a potential escalation within the coming months, presenting different scenarios.
Included among these are attacks with unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) against critical infrastructure, such as power stations, but also simulations of airstrikes aimed at testing the readiness of Polish air defense.
In the most extreme scenario, always according to the publication, the possibility of a hybrid attack in the border zone with the participation of Russian or Belarusian military forces is being examined.
According to Washington's assessment, Moscow could present such an incident as an "inadvertent border violation" due to a problem in the GPS system or even as a "rescue mission" to remove a helicopter that suffered a malfunction.
The same publication claims that Russia may be calculating that the US will press Poland to choose negotiation instead of a direct military response.
According to the analysis of the article, this could mean that a question of activating NATO would not arise immediately.
The MAGA and the voices in favor of US withdrawal from NATO
Shortly before the NATO Summit in Ankara, popular American bloggers belonging to the MAGA movement argue that the US should withdraw from the Alliance.
They cite the repeated statements of Donald Trump, according to which Washington shoulders a disproportionately large financial burden for funding NATO compared to European countries.
One of the commentators refers to the movie The Sum of All Fears (2002), based on the novel by Tom Clancy, in which a powerful terrorist organization causes nuclear incidents in Germany and the US with the goal of leading the two superpowers into a war between them.
According to the publication, views that Article 5 of NATO may constitute a threat to American national security are gaining ground in the US, while certain circles argue that the "globalists" sought to utilize the Alliance so that the American armed forces would fight on behalf of third parties.
Why Poland is changing its stance toward Ukraine
Warsaw, by bringing the dispute with Ukraine over the glorification of the UPA and the creation of a "pantheon" back to the forefront, refusing the delivery of MiG-29 fighter jets, and even going as far as to propose the closure of the base in Rzeszów, is attempting to reduce the risk of its involvement in a potential military escalation.
According to the same analysis, Poland, considering the risk of a strike on its territory real, is now attempting to present Ukraine as a factor that burdens its security.
The reference to Sergey Karaganov
The publication estimates that the information from The Telegraph may be linked to a recent interview of Sergey Karaganov by Yulia Panchenko, in which the Russian analyst proposed conventional, non-nuclear strikes against targets in Poland.
According to the article, Karaganov's interventions are monitored closely in the West, as it is considered that he often expresses views that are close to the strategic thinking of the Kremlin.
Karaganov allegedly argues that strikes on NATO logistics centers in Poland, such as the airport of Rzeszów, would cause a substantial blow to the West and would increase pressure on European governments.
According to his assessment, such a development could test the cohesion of NATO, as Western countries would seek to avoid a direct confrontation that could lead to a nuclear escalation, ultimately opening the way for negotiations with Moscow regarding the future of the Ukrainian issue.
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