The European Union is intensifying its moves in the South Caucasus, seeking to strengthen ties with Armenia and reduce its dependence on Russia. Russian analysts estimate that Brussels is attempting to disrupt Moscow–Yerevan relations, while the Armenian government states that it is seeking new export avenues amid trade problems with the Russian Federation.
Von der Leyen announced favorable access for Armenian products to the EU
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, concluded her tour of the South Caucasus with a visit to Yerevan. During the press conference on July 2, she announced that approximately 80% of Armenia's exportswill gain tariff-free access to the European market. The products include fresh vegetables, fruits, plants, as well as alcoholic and other beverages.
Armenia seeks diversification of its exports
The Ministry of Economy of Armenia stated to the Izvestia newspaper that active negotiations and discussions are underway aimed at lifting the trade restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation. At the same time, the ministry pointed out that, due to geopolitical and transport problems that have appeared in traditional export markets, the diversification of export routes is now a key priority of the government's economic policy.
"The European market cannot replace Russia"
The head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State University, Dmitry Sidorov, told Izvestia that Armenia traditionally exported mainly agricultural products that were absorbed by the Russian market. According to him, there is already intense competition in the agricultural sector within the European market. He estimated that, although Brussels will open its market to Armenian producers, these exports will never reach the levels of previous exports to Russia.
Russian analyst: Neither the EU nor the US can replace the Russian market
The researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations, Nikolay Silayev, told the Vedomosti newspaper that neither the European Union, nor the United States, nor Turkey can constitute a core alternative market for Armenian exports. As he argued, most Armenian products are primarily aimed at Russian consumers, while the approximately 34 million euros of financial assistance allocated by the European Union is insufficient for the restructuring of the country's export routes. He further estimated that a large part of these funds will not be utilized effectively, adding that, being aware of the situation, Yerevan is looking for ways to de-escalate the crisis in its relations with Russia, which, as he said, exceeds the limits of a simple trade dispute.
"Brussels supports Pashinyan and builds new corridors"
The researcher at the Caucasus Institute, Hrant Mikaelyan, argued that the European Union is pursuing both immediate and broader geopolitical goals in the South Caucasus. In his estimation, Brussels seeks, on one hand, to express its support for the prime minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, ahead of the parliamentary elections and within the framework of the trade confrontation with Russia. At the same time, he mentioned that the talks in Yerevan are part of a broader tour by European officials, aimed at creating new energy and transport corridors that will function as alternatives to Russian networks.
Focus on the so-called "Trump Route"
According to Hrant Mikaelyan, the two sides may accelerate the implementation of the so-called "Trump Route", a land corridor that will connect Central Asia to Europe, bypassing both Russia and Iran. As he argued, Armenia constitutes a pivotal link in this geopolitical plan, and an intense great power competition is currently unfolding around its role.
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