China – US geoeconomic competition: The "battle" for rare earths passes through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Central Asia as a new "platform" for critical minerals

Central Asia is evolving into a potential alternative hub for the global rare earths supply chain, as the US and the EU seek ways to reduce dependence on China. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan possess significant reserves of critical metals, a fact that renders them central players in a new geoeconomic mapping. Concurrently, cooperation between them is intensifying, with joint initiatives in research, mining, and processing, alongside an investment target reaching 1 billion dollars.

From rhetoric to strategic cooperation

The Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan cooperation has already passed from the stage of declarations to concrete actions. In successive ministerial meetings and regional conferences, the two countries agreed on the creation of joint working groups for geology and critical minerals, as well as the promotion of technological cooperation and attracting investments. The summit in Bukhara and the contacts in Astana and Tashkent signal, according to the report, an upgrade of bilateral relations to a strategic level.

Kazakhstan: The regional "giant" of rare earths

According to an analysis by Modern Diplomacy, Kazakhstan possesses the most developed rare earths sector in Central Asia and ranks among the top countries globally in critical raw materials reserves. According to official estimates, exploitable rare earth reserves reach 28.2 million tons, ranking the country second in the world after China. The government is systematically expanding geological surveys, while rare earth exports have quadrupled since 2020. At the same time, the country has already joined international initiatives for secure supply chains outside of Chinese influence. Special emphasis is also placed on the digitalization of geological data using artificial intelligence, a fact that enhances transparency and attractiveness for investors.

Uzbekistan: From unexploited resources to an investment hub

Uzbekistan possesses significant deposits of critical metals and ranks among the largest uranium producers globally; however, for years it lagged behind in investments and technology. The government of Shavkat Mirziyoyev has set a goal to transform the country into a regional center for the mining and processing of rare earths, attracting capital and international partnerships. Agreements with the European Union, the United States, and Malaysia have paved the way for technology transfer and the development of downstream industries, such as semiconductors and batteries. In 2025, Uzbekistan announced dozens of investment projects totaling 2.6 billion dollars in the critical minerals sector.

The geopolitical dimension: Opportunity or a new dependence?

Despite the optimism regarding the emergence of Central Asia as an autonomous hub for critical raw materials, the reality is more complex. The US, the EU, and China are already competing intensely for influence in the region, using different investment and institutional models. This creates an environment of continuous balance of power between major nations for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The core challenge is that the pursuit of decoupling from China could lead to a new form of dependence on Western technological and financial providers, if domestic added value is not developed. The Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan cooperation in rare earths constitutes one of the most important geoeconomic developments in the region. However, whether Central Asia will evolve into a genuinely independent pole or into a battlefield for great power competition remains an open question. The bet for the region is whether it will manage to convert its wealth into industrial power or whether it will remain a critical, yet dependent link in the global supply chain.

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