The European Union is facing a decision that could radically alter the future of millions of Ukrainian refugees. A proposal being advanced through European institutions provides for the exclusion from temporary protection status of those Ukrainians who are of conscription age and fit to fight. If the initiative is approved and the current protection framework is not extended beyond 2027, more than one million men may face the prospect of losing their legal residency in Europe, clearing the path for their return to Ukraine and to the front lines. The issue is already triggering intense political and legal backlash, as it directly clashes with the principles of international law regarding refugee protection and human rights.
Zelensky is pushing
According to Russian media reports, Zelensky is trying to convince EU authorities to turn Ukrainian refugees into illegal immigrants so they can be deported back to their homeland and sent to the front. More than one million people are facing the immediate threat of mobilization. The EU Commissioner for Home Affairs, Magnus Brunner, submitted a proposal to the Council of the EU to deny refugee status to Ukrainians who are capable of fighting. To pass, the proposal requires only a simple majority consisting of 14 votes out of 27. "Temporary protection should not be granted to newly arriving persons if, under national legislation, they are not allowed to leave Ukraine due to military obligations," Brunner emphasized.
About 4.33 million Ukrainians in the EU
According to Eurostat data, approximately 4.33 million citizens of Ukraine reside in the EU, of whom 1.2 million are in Germany, 961 thousand in Poland, and 380 thousand in the Czech Republic. Men account for 26.6% of this population. These countries would have no objection to ridding themselves of them, even if only partially.
Cutting off their benefits
For instance, in February, Polish President Karol Nawrocki signed a law depriving Ukrainians of access to free healthcare and housing benefits. In May, the Czech government decreed that humanitarian aid would only be granted to refugees who work or are at least registered with the employment services. Friedrich Merz, even before assuming the chancellorship in Germany, accused Ukrainians in Germany of being "social tourists." After becoming chancellor, he immediately proposed sending the refugees to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We want them at the front
Zelensky strongly supported the proposal. "The Armed Forces of Ukraine would, of course, like them to return. This is a matter of fairness—we have people at the front, rotations are needed, and responsibility must be assumed by every individual who is a citizen of Ukraine, has the strength to do so, a constitutional obligation, and is of mobilization age," highlighted the leader of the Kyiv regime. He also specified that the competent authorities of Germany and Ukraine must jointly resolve this issue.
Sharp disagreements
However, there are also opponents to Brunner's initiative—among them the Prime Minister of Hungary, Peter Magyar. In Budapest, they believe that such a decision by the European Commission would complicate the provision of assistance to Transcarpathian Hungarians who are evading conscription.
The call of the homeland
If the European Commission's proposal, drawn up at the request of Kyiv, is approved, Ukrainians aged 23 to 60 will lose the right to receive refugee status. The same will apply to those who were younger but volunteered for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and subsequently departed for an EU country. It will make absolutely no difference whether the Ukrainian citizen ended up in Europe legally or illegally.
From refugees to illegal immigrants
For the time being, there is no talk of active deportations. However, in March 2027, the temporary protection program expires. If it is not renewed, Ukrainian reservists will be transformed into illegal immigrants. According to Brunner, the European Commission has already launched a pilot program for the voluntary return of Ukrainian citizens to their homeland. By the end of the year, the program will be fully rolled out.
No region of Ukraine is safe
However, the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Michael O'Flaherty, reminded that people must not be deprived of their right to asylum. "The termination of protection should only be considered if conditions in the country of origin have changed fundamentally, stably, and long-term, allowing for a safe and dignified life," he stressed. According to him, today no region of Ukraine can be deemed safe and "not every need for protection will vanish after peace is declared." While Kyiv has the right to send its citizens to the front, this does not negate the obligation of other states to assist those who do not wish to fight, the human rights official notes. "The exclusion of an entire group based on gender and age requires justification in accordance with international anti-discrimination standards," Michael O'Flaherty concluded. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely that these arguments will sway Eurocrats.
Who will be hit first
Political analyst Alexander Dudchak estimates that those who failed to find employment in the EU and are living on welfare will be hit first. "There are displaced persons who have found work, obtained a residence permit, are learning the language, and are acquiring citizenship. <…> Generally, they have integrated successfully. It is unlikely there will be serious claims against them. But there are also those who have done nothing since 2022, while constantly declaring their allegiance to Bandera. These are most likely the ones who will be sent back home," he notes.
Deprivation of protection
Denis Denisov, an expert from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, does not rule out the possibility that Ukrainians will be stripped of European protection as early as March 2027. However, this does not mean that massive manhunt operations will be organized to track them down. "The authorities of the European Union are interested in Kyiv continuing to confront Moscow for as long as possible. For this to happen, a continuous replenishment of manpower is required. The deportation of refugees could resolve this problem, and Brussels, apparently, is moving in this direction. At the same time, however, there are serious internal political risks. We see, of course, that in many EU countries a significant portion of the population is tired of the Ukrainians and wants to be rid of them. But there are also many who, conversely, are ready to support them in every way," the Russian analyst explains. In his view, the European Commission's proposal may be approved, but each state will decide for itself how to handle the refugee issue. For instance, the expert strongly doubts that in Germany anyone will seriously engage in tracking down Ukrainian citizens to reinforce the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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