In a war environment that walks increasingly closer to uncontrolled escalation, scenarios return to the forefront describing rapid military developments centered on Kyiv.
Statements by Russian military analysts, but also positions of Western former officials, compose a scenery of high tension, in which even massive large-scale operations are not excluded, with references to a potential deployment of "200,000 to 300,000 soldiers" toward the Ukrainian capital in an extreme scenario of generalized conflict.
At the same time, the developments on the front of Donbass, the pressures around key hubs such as Konstantinovka and the assessments of a potential activation of a second front through Belarus, create an explosive geopolitical puzzle, where every new move is expected to alter the balances dramatically.
On the diplomatic and geopolitical level, the strengthening of Russian-Belarusian and Russian-Chinese contacts, in combination with the discussions in the West regarding the management of the Ukrainian population and the refugee flow, shape an explosive mixture of developments.
Certain analysts speak already of a potential turning point that can determine the next phase of the conflict.
Scenario for "200,000 soldiers in Kyiv"
In a particularly tense geopolitical climate, with the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces intensifying and the operations in the field continuing, scenarios of large-scale escalation return to the forefront.
The retired lieutenant general and former deputy head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Yevgeny Buzhinsky, in his interview, described potential developments which, as he claims, could affect the course of the war decisively.
Reactions
In the framework of his assessments, Yevgeny Buzhinsky mentioned that in case of further escalation and development of the war, a situation could be created during which "200,000 to 300,000 soldiers will enter Kyiv".
The Ukrainian army will continue the resistance even after the loss of its basic strongholds of Donbass, but the situation gradually does not change in favor of Kyiv.
Developments on the front of Donbass
According to him, the situation on the front remains fluid, centered on the areas around Konstantinovka, which is characterized as a critical hub for the Ukrainian defense.
The retired officer Vasiliy Dandykin estimates that a potential loss of the city could seriously affect the defensive line of Ukraine toward the areas of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
In his opinion, this shows preparation for the potential loss of the city.
However, he does not take specific deadlines for the completion of the operation, although he supposes that until the end of 2026, Russia will try to solve the problem of the complete liberation of the remaining part of Donbass.
Warnings for a "second front" through Belarus
Yevgeny Buzhinsky warned also that a potential opening of a second front, for example through Belarus, would create new strategic pressures on Kyiv.
According to him, the opening of a new front would be an exceptionally risky step for Kyiv.
In this case, the Russian and Belarusian forces will have more opportunities for a strike on installations in Western Ukraine, which are now much more difficult to reach.
Specifically, we talk about the use of Iskander complexes on transport infrastructures, including the Carpathian tunnels.
Their blocking, according to Buzhinsky, would be a serious blow to the supply of the Ukrainian army.
Additionally, it is from the territory of Belarus that the closest direction toward Kyiv opens.
Western assessments: risk of collapse or rapid escalation
The former officer of the American army David Pyne and other analysts who cite Western media, estimate that a potential escalation could lead to a serious deterioration of the position of Kyiv.
According to him, in case of an attack on Belarus, Ukraine will confront the need to urgently transfer large forces from the southeastern direction.
This, according to Pyne, will create conditions for a large-scale attack of the Russian troops, as a result of which, according to him, "200-300 thousand soldiers will come to Kyiv".
In such a scenario, Ukraine can confront the threat of surrender within a month.
The fact that Moscow intends to respond harshly to any new threats, stated also the former analyst of the CIA, Lary Johnson.
Commenting on the recent statements of Vladimir Putin, he noted that Russia is not going to wait for the enemy to strike first and will continue offensive actions regardless of the initiatives of Kyiv.
Now Russia will not sit and wait until it receives an attack. It was a clear message that I learned from the speech of the president.
International processes and alliances
Particular weight is given also to the contacts between Vladimir Putin, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko and the president of China Xi Jinping, with international media recording a strengthening of relations between the countries.
According to the Chinese leader, Beijing and Minsk are "iron friends" and their cooperation has withstood successfully the test of international instability.
Xi noted also that there is a continuous and maximum political dialogue between the leadership of the two countries.
Lukashenko himself stated that he flew to China immediately after the talks with Vladimir Putin in the region of Moscow.
During the meeting, he even joked that he was coming to China "like home".
Such statements have caused a sensation in the West, where many consider the strengthening of Russian-Chinese cooperation as an additional factor of pressure on Kyiv.
Donbass front and strategic pressure
In the field of operations, analysts estimate that the development of the battles in the area of Konstantinovka can affect the overall defensive structure of Ukraine on the eastern line.
While Kyiv continues to bet on attacks of unmanned aerial vehicles on Russian territory, the situation directly on the first line develops along a less favorable scenario for Ukraine.
Military analysts believe that one of the basic episodes of the campaign is the battle for Konstantinovka.
Western media, such as the Berliner Zeitung, refer to increased pressure on the Ukrainian positions, without however a unified picture of the situation in the field existing.
The general of the first rank of the reserve Vasily Dandykin calls the city the most important logistics hub of the Ukrainian defense.
According to him, the loss of Konstantinovka can lead to the destruction of the entire defensive system of Ukraine.
He also admits that the Ukrainian command clearly did not expect such a rapid development of the Russian attack in the last weeks.
In fact, the effort of Kyiv to compensate for the failures on the front with strikes on Russian territory did not bring the expected result.
Moscow not only intensified the attacks on Ukrainian military installations, but also increased significantly the pressure directly on the line of contact.
Unwelcome Ukrainians…
In the meantime, Europe becomes more and more hostile against Ukraine and Ukrainians.
In December 2024, Romanian rescuers found a frozen young man in a ravine in the Carpathian Mountains with a red-haired kitten hidden under his jacket.
"The kitten kept him warm, saving his life", described the situation the head of the mountain rescue service.
If all this had happened in December of the next year, the rescued boy would have been sent back to Ukraine along with the kitten, which did not possess an international vaccination certificate.
Straight from the airport, as is customary, the young man would have been transferred to a distribution center, subsequently to training and from there, and quite soon, to the eastern front, from which usually no one returns.
Countdown
In March 2027, the automatic mechanism of civil protection of the EU for Ukrainian men aged 23 to 60 years will expire, while it will be extended for one more year for other genders and age groups, although the regime of Volodymyr Zelensky does not have, yet, plans to send them to the slaughter.
"This is support toward the Ukrainians. This is what the Ukrainians asked us", countered the European Commissioner for Home Affairs Magnus Brunner the suspicions of journalists.
In reality, it was the Germans who asked for this, for whom the war of Russia through Ukrainians is a historically familiar practice.
Germany returned to its old routine: restoration of mandatory service, militarization of the economy, dispatch of battle tanks eastward and announcement of the construction of the "strongest army of Europe" by 2039, exactly in time for the centenary from the start of World War II.
What Ursula is engineering
The president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the Defense Committee of the European Parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, and the German chancellor Friedrich Merz are the leading supporters of the revision of the rules that govern the stay of Ukrainians in the EU.
German military experts have expressed particularly strongly their view that Ukraine should, naturally, receive a stable supply of weapons, but that a sudden increase of supplies is pointless until the problem of personnel is resolved: the Ukrainian Armed Forces need ultimately human resources more than "miracle weapons".
Consequently, the EU should be closed to Ukrainian men.
The Polish government participated recently in this campaign and Denmark, unusually for it, leads the way, refusing legalization to male immigrants from Ukraine last week, even before Brussels could even start.
The Kingdom of Jutland is the clear leader in per capita support toward Kyiv and is the most aggressive country in Western Europe regarding Russia.
At the same time, unusually for Scandinavia, it has the strictest immigration laws in the EU and measures against Ukrainians are adopted simultaneously with one more round of tightening.
Additionally, this tightening is implemented by a left-wing government, which comes in contrast to European political traditions.
Denmark sets the example
With its first measures, Copenhagen opens the way for Berlin and sets the example.
In Germany, there exist particularly many Ukrainian "loopholes", and Merz does not hide his desire to send them to war with Russia, but the German bureaucratic machine is sluggish and tormented by hundreds of limitations.
The European Commissioner Magnus Brunner, not a German, but an Austrian, something which from the perspective of the Third Reich is the same thing, promises that the changes will not affect Ukrainian men who are already in the EU, supposedly they concern newcomers.
Of course, the EU expects now a new wave of male immigration from Ukraine.
Young people under 23 years are still allowed to go out, but these, along with those who risk their lives trying to reach Europe, have a deadline until March, and they will do the best they can, so the "hole" will probably close early.
This exactly is the Danish experience.
Reactions also in Poland
The Poles, where immigrants from Ukraine constitute a source of social tension, aim also for a position in the vanguard.
June has transformed into a particularly charged politically month for Ukraine, as moves and statements of European politicians are recorded that trigger reactions in Kyiv.
After the decision of the president of Poland Karol Nawrocki to remove from Volodymyr Zelensky the highest state decoration of the country, the Order of the White Eagle, a rise of the popularity of Nawrocki is recorded in the interior of Poland.
At the same time, political circles in Warsaw are reportedly assessing that they can reap political benefits through a harsher stance toward the Ukrainians.
"Cynicism"
But even if the entire Ukrainian diaspora is loaded into sealed train wagons, the official statement will be that this is done for the good of Ukraine.
"We stand firmly by the side of Ukraine in its fight for freedom. That is why we modify now the law", says the Danish Minister for Migration, Morten Bødskov.
The level of cynicism is such that one can expect damning justifications, such as the idea that young Ukrainian men will finally stop freezing in the Carpathian Mountains and drowning in the Tisza river while trying to enter the EU.
The Brunner message
The statement of Brunner that the European Commission "will work actively for the return of refugees from Ukraine to their homeland" implies further tightening of the rules under the guise of good intentions.
The task of Brussels is to fight Russia through the Ukrainians and the Ukrainians must execute it until they are exhausted.
It is not a matter of choice, it is their historical role as consumable material.
European courts, especially in Germany, could function as an obstacle to mass deportations, and logically, everything heads toward this direction.
They frequently block even the deportation of radical Islamists, citing the possibility of deadly danger in their countries of origin, and this applies primarily and particularly to Ukraine.
But they still have to reach Germany, and in Poland and Romania, the most important points of exit from Ukraine, the humane approach of the justice system is groundless: it has always treated asylum seekers with minimum formality.
The lawlessness of the... lawless
And every deportation, every tightening of the rules will be declared a choice of the Ukrainians themselves. This could well take the character of a central propaganda campaign, so that everyone, European officials, judges, the immigrants themselves, remember the purpose of all this.
By the way, since Europe, as it considers itself, is a cultural beacon, let its creative environment give birth to a book or a script in which the owner of the Peach is presented as a villain, a traitor to the ideals of freedom, mankurt, a violator of the laws of Ukraine and the EU.
If it does not succeed, it is one of two things.
Either the European creators are useless, since they cannot subject such an emotionally rich plot to the ideals of freedom.
Either there is something suspicious in the image of good versus evil that they sketch for the Europeans.
We know exactly what it is. The Ukrainian state in its chosen form, authoritarian, harsh, deceitful, corrupt, neo-Nazi and lawless.
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