The US is attempting a highly controversial move against the backdrop of North Africa's oil deposits. In an effort to end the years-long division in Libya, Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman and father-in-law of Donald Trump’s daughter, Tiffany, is leading a plan for power-sharing between the country's rival camps. With American oil giants ConocoPhillips and Chevron having already signed the first agreements for 2026, the White House is seeking to unite institutions, legitimize the power of the strongmen, and double crude production, changing the balance of the global energy market forever.
The US plan for Libya
Massad Boulos, an advisor to the American president for the Middle East and Africa, told the Financial Times that he is working to bring the country's fragmented institutions under a single authority, while encouraging American oil groups to invest. "Our plan is to have a unified government and to consolidate all institutions," Boulos stated. UN efforts to hold elections aimed at unifying Libya have been repeatedly torpedoed by politicians and armed factional groups that fear losing their influence and access to state resources, including billions of dollars in oil export revenues, according to UN officials and analysts. Libya possesses the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, but production has remained below its potential for decades. Sanctions against dictator Muammer Gaddafi and the unrest following his overthrow in 2011—including oil facility blockades by armed groups aimed at extracting concessions—have hindered investments from international oil companies for decades.
Investment and oil production
According to Boulos, Washington is encouraging major American oil giants to invest in Libya, noting that ConocoPhillips and Chevron have already signed agreements with Libya in 2026. He added that Libyan oil production could double to 3 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. "This will put Libya on the global map of major oil-producing countries," he said. Emadeddin Badi, a Libya analyst and co-founder of Informmi, a political risk consultancy, said that the US approach to Libya aligns with the "highly transactional" foreign policy style of the Trump administration. "I think the US thinks they know these stakeholders, that they are open to making deals with us, and that they themselves do not want instability, so why not create a political environment that is favorable for more deals and more investments," he added. Boulos stated that his plan would work "complementarily" to UN efforts to hold parliamentary elections and could eventually be "part of a package" and a "short-term arrangement" that would precede parliamentary and presidential elections.
The proposed power structure
The plan would place Saddam Haftar, son of Khalifa Haftar—the warlord who controls eastern Libya—at the head of an executive presidential council, according to sources familiar with the matter. The same sources added that Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, prime minister since 2021 of the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, western Libya, would remain in his post, while a close relative of his would take on a national security position. Saddam Haftar is the chief of staff of the ground forces of the self-styled Libyan National Army, the armed faction led by his father. In Haftar's stronghold in eastern Libya, no dissent is tolerated, and human rights organizations allege that brutal methods have been used to silence dissidents. Dbeibeh’s tenure as prime minister is protected by a mosaic of allied armed groups, some of which have been accused by UN bodies of crimes including torture, illegal detention, and human trafficking.
Skepticism from diplomats and analysts
Diplomats and analysts are skeptical about whether the Boulos agreement—which would formalize the power exercised by leaders who rely on armed factions in Libya—can be achieved, given the mistrust between the two sides and the compromises that would have to be made to govern together. "It’s wishful thinking," said Claudia Gazzini, a senior analytical advisor at the International Crisis Group, who is currently visiting eastern Libya. "There is no public narrative here in Benghazi about reconciliation with the other side or that it’s time to move forward.Everything revolves around the achievements of the people currently in power and everything is based on treating Tripoli as an enemy."
Italy, Libya’s main trading partner, has been informed of the plan and supports it, but believes its implementation will likely be difficult, said another person with knowledge of the matter. Tim Eaton, a senior fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, said the Haftar family has shown no indication in the past that it would be willing to share power. "The fear from the Dbeibeh camp would be that any deal with the Haftars, especially if it placed Saddam on the presidential council, would be used by him as a stepping stone to subsequently seize the rest of the government. There will be a trust issue there, and that will be difficult to overcome."
The history of division
Libya has been in a state of chaos since an armed uprising in 2011 overthrew long-time dictator Muammer Gaddafi. After the disputed elections of 2014, the country was divided into rival political camps kept in power by predatory armed groups that have infiltrated state institutions, according to the UN. The two sides governing Libya "depend on armed groups, so they are not able to reform them," said Badi. "Right now, there are groups aligned with Dbeibeh that are increasingly appropriating state revenues." Boulos pointed out steps that have already been taken on his roadmap for the unification of Libya. These include a November agreement to fund development for both sides of the country—something that has traditionally been a bone of contention.
Furthermore, for the first time in more than a decade, the east and west signed a national unified budget in April. The two sides, he added, also participated in Exercise Flintlock, a military exercise led by the US Africa Command (Africom), which was held in Libya in April. "The most important aspect is that our colleagues at Africom were working and continue to work with both sides on a [military] unification plan," he stated. However, Gazzini noted that many Libyans doubt that the deal will be implemented because "they know the personalities [of the protagonists] and how they think." There is also opposition to the idea of consolidating the rule of those currently exercising power in the country, she added, because this would mean that "there would be no chance of political change soon, no chance of holding elections, and no chance of changing the government in the future."
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