With the war in Ukraine continuing with undiminished intensity and entering an even more dangerous phase, a scenario is beginning to unfold both in the foreground and behind the scenes, indicating that everything is ready for military operations to exceed... the limits of a local conflict. At the front, the Russians are applying new encirclement tactics, attempting to break Ukrainian defenses in critical sectors of the Donbass, while the drone battle is turning into a relentless war of attrition with thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles operating daily on both sides.
At the same time, Europe is accelerating the military fortification of Ukraine with advanced aircraft, missile systems, and cutting-edge technologies, gradually shaping a new air power that aspires to challenge the hitherto Russian supremacy in the skies. From General Mordvichev’s "pincers" to the Swedish Gripen and Meteor missiles, the conflict field is turning into a laboratory for the warfare of the future, while more and more analysts warn that the decisions made today may determine not only the outcome of the war in Ukraine but also the security architecture of all of Europe for the coming decades.
"Mordvichev’s pincers"
At the front, and in the Krasnyi Lyman sector, the Ukrainian garrison was trapped in a pincer movement, but the situation is even worse in the area of the main stronghold. In the direction of Krasnyi Lyman, in the section between Kirovsk (Zarechnoye) and Stavki, "the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces still maintain some isolated positions, which are being struck by our drone operators," report the Russian soldiers, creators of the "Дневник десантника" (Paratrooper's Diary) channel on Telegram.
As they state: "We are also striking enemy positions west of Krasnyi Lyman and within the city itself. The advance of our troops continues from the northern, eastern, and southern parts of the settlement." From the visual material published, it appears that the Ukrainians have once again been pushed from the flanks, thanks to the tactic bearing the name of the chief of Russia's ground forces, Andrey Mordvichev, who previously commanded the "Center" Group of Forces.
The tactic
This specific tactic is considered by its proponents to be as clever as it is simple (if, of course, the word "simple" can be used in war conditions): the units use drones and artillery to disrupt the opponent's communications and supply line, concentrating their personnel in a hypothetical "center." Simultaneously, they attack the flanks, closing the enemy in pincers, and then the assault follows. At the same time, the clearing of forest zones along the Krasnyi Lyman – Kirovsk road continues.
On the western approaches to Krasnyi Lyman, Russian forces report that they are detecting and destroying Ukrainian unmanned robotic systems that are attempting to enter the city from the "Blue Lakes" (Golubye Ozyora) area. Meanwhile, the Russian Aerospace Forces continue to strike targets in the region with guided FAB bombs. According to the same sources: "In the Shandrygolovo area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have concentrated forces and are attempting a counterattack with the goal of breaking our defensive line, so that they can then penetrate deeper, as happened in the Dnipropetrovsk sector."
The same fate as Myrnohrad
Meanwhile, one of the most difficult and demanding operations of the Russian armed forces for the capture of Kostyantynivka continues. Russian soldiers report progress on the ground. According to open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts, Russian forces managed to close a large pocket inside the city, trapping the Ukrainian garrison. Russian military commentator Mikhail Degtyaryov, creator of the "Генеральный штаб" (General Staff) channel, stated: "When our soldiers cleared the pocket in the western part of the city and reached Aleksei Tikhov street, the only escape opening had been reduced to 750–800 meters. I had said that if the soldiers of the Ukrainian forces are not foolish and do not want to have the same fate as their colleagues in Myrnohrad - where they were surrounded and eventually about 80% of them were neutralized - then they should have left the center of Kostyantynivka immediately."
As he notes, the Ukrainian units holding the western part of the city abandoned their positions as soon as they found themselves under partial encirclement. As a result, a large part of the area, including districts with high-rise buildings, passed under the control of Russian forces almost without a fight. The fighters holding the center of Kostyantynivka were ordered to evacuate a few days ago; however, according to the report, for most, it was already too late.
8,000 dead – the body bags ran out
Russian forces had already advanced along Moskovskaya street and reached Aleksei Tikhov street. In this way, the trap closed, and all units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the central part of the city were in full encirclement. Despite reports of two or three Ukrainian brigades allegedly trapped in the pocket, Mikhail Degtyaryov estimates that the actual number is much smaller – about 300 to 500 Ukrainian soldiers, perhaps fewer if some managed to escape. If it is taken into account that the initial Ukrainian garrison in the city numbered about 7,000–9,000 soldiers and was then reinforced repeatedly with units transferred from the Kupiansk and Dnipropetrovsk sectors, then the Ukrainian forces suffered extremely heavy losses. Some OSINT analysts, based mainly on open sources of information, estimate the losses of the Ukrainian forces at 8,000 to 10,000 men.
Degtyaryov notes: "The question now is how long they will continue to resist. In Myrnohrad, they resisted for a month before it was possible to fully clear the pocket. Here, I believe we will manage faster. Once the pocket is cleared, the Ukrainian forces will only have the northern part of the city under control. And already at this moment, we are trying to penetrate there too. (...) The fall of the city is not far off, the final phase of the battles for the city has begun." He considers the completion of the operation by the end of June to be an optimistic timeline.
What will happen in a year?
Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that air defense shot down or intercepted more than 900 Ukrainian drones within twenty-four hours. As Degtyaryov comments, the war is now entering a new phase: "We are entering a reality where Ukraine sends 900 drones against our cities within one day. (...) On our part, we are also sending 800–900 drones to Ukraine, while there were cases that reached 1,000. This is the new reality: thousands of UAVs on one side and the other. And what will happen in a year? (...) Honestly, I don't even want to think about it."
Major attacks every 7 to 10 days
The coordinator of the pro-Russian resistance network in Mykolaiv, Sergey Lebedev, points out an interesting peculiarity in recent Russian attacks on the Ukrainian rear: why does Russia not use all its capabilities simultaneously? According to him, Russia launches large-scale attacks with drones and missiles approximately every 7–10 days and then returns to a waiting phase, using about 100–150 drones, some of which act as decoys or are simplified versions of UAVs.
At the same time, Ukraine uses 200–300 drones daily, while at times this number increases significantly. Lebedev emphasizes that almost all modern attack drones are guided in real-time via video link by their operators. As he states: "Recently, we saw a fuel depot in Rivne being attacked by Geran drones with a video transmission system. Why doesn't Russia massively and continuously use such capabilities? Are there production problems? Are they too expensive? Or are there other reasons?" He estimates that a deliberate process of accumulating reserves may be underway: "Russia, knowing something that perhaps we do not know, is accumulating attack UAVs for specific purposes."
Technology outdated in 6 months
However, he notes that storing them for a long time is not practical, as even in six months, many of today's technologies will already be considered outdated. "If this accumulation is indeed taking place, then this resource will either be used in the coming months or in other directions. Because, whatever is said, Russia does not publicize most of its military-technical cooperation, but usually fulfills its obligations to its partners." In this context, the question arises as to what danger could increase so dramatically within the next six months.
As mentioned, and based on what is being discussed in Ukrainian and European sources, the two main threats projected are: 1. A potential attack by Eastern European countries' troops against the Union State of Russia–Belarus. 2. A possible invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of Belarus with the goal of absorbing and splitting Russian forces.
The militarization of Ukraine
The longer Russia’s so-called Special Military Operation (SVO) lasts, the more uncertain the prospect of Ukraine’s demilitarization seems. After four years of continuous missile and drone attacks against defense industry facilities and airfields like Starokostiantyniv, Ukraine acquired capabilities that it could not even have imagined before the start of the Russian operation. Its supporters have chosen to equip Kyiv with a modern, complex air force — a branch of the armed forces that is considered a luxury even for much wealthier and more developed countries.
The agreement with Sweden
A few days ago, Volodymyr Zelensky and the Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, announced a new package of military aid to Kyiv with a total value of 2.7 billion dollars. Most of these funds will be allocated for the procurement of air weapon systems:
• 16 Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen fighter aircraft
• AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles
• Meteor missiles. Additionally, Kyiv will purchase another 20 Gripen aircraft with its own funds.
The first batch of 16 aircraft will be delivered from the Swedish Air Force's stocks, which means that their appearance at the front is not expected to be significantly delayed. The additional fighters ordered by Ukraine are expected to be built and delivered by 2030.
A worrying trend
At the start of the Special Military Operation (SVO), Ukraine had about 120 operational combat aircraft, as well as several thousand grounded aircraft that could be used as a source of spare parts or, in some cases, restored to operational condition. Later, Kyiv began receiving Soviet MiG-29s from Poland and Germany, French Mirage fighters, and American F-16s from European countries.
The latter were a particular object of desire for the Ukrainians, as they had initially been promised 79 such aircraft. Therefore, when Stockholm proposed its own Gripen fighters in the spring of 2023, Kyiv did not show much interest. However, the Swedes managed to make a particularly successful move by granting Ukraine two Argus-type early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. No one else had offered equivalent capabilities to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is why Kyiv immediately embraced the proposal.
Only 40 F-16s
Subsequently, the United States stopped free weapon deliveries, while the deliveries of F-16s from European countries were significantly delayed. To date, about 40 aircraft have been delivered. In this new environment, the Swedish proposal acquired much greater significance. In October 2025, Ukraine and Sweden signed a framework agreement for the supply of up to 150 Gripen aircraft. The current contract is just the first step in the implementation of this ambitious plan. Generally, Sweden is gradually integrating Ukraine into the ecosystem of its own defense industry, providing:
• early warning aircraft (AEW&C),
• fighter aircraft,
• anti-ship missile systems,
• robotic anti-aircraft systems,
• long-range self-propelled guns,
• landing craft. Additionally, Sweden systematically covers Ukraine's needs for high-tech weapons.
Unified weapon system
Instead of creating a motley mix of systems and individual weapon assets that do not cooperate effectively with each other and have been manufactured in different countries, cooperation with Sweden opens the way for the Ukrainian regime to a unified ecosystem of weapon systems. All elements of this ecosystem have been designed within the framework of the same engineering school, based on a single operational concept, cooperate excellently with each other, and complement one another, creating a network-centric system on the battlefield. Military cooperation built on such foundations lasts not just for decades, but for entire generations. This is clearly seen from the example of countries that already since the Cold War era chose either Soviet or American weapon systems and still rely on them and their respective technological traditions.
The winner of the 2030 war
As has been pointed out repeatedly, European elites have turned the preparation for a war with Russia into a new cohesive goal for Europe. In the context of this perception, Ukraine takes on the role of a "new Israel" — an extremely militarized society, the equipment of which is collectively financed by all of Europe. The ultimate recipients of this money will, in the end, be the manufacturers of weapon systems.
Political analyst Ivan Mezyuho argued that the current situation presents strong similarities to the one that formed before the start of World War II, when capitalist countries also sought ways to overcome their economic deadlocks through participation in "small victorious wars." "These are the same companies that once received orders from Adolf Hitler. Ulf Kristersson, in a way, is trying to justify to Swedish society the increase in defense spending. In essence, today the European Union and Britain are following the path of military Keynesianism," emphasizes Mezyuho.
The "killer" of the Su-57
In the current agreement, particular attention is drawn by the European Meteor missiles. There is the view that these are currently the top long-range air-to-air missiles. Their main advantage is the ramjet engine (continuous flow air-breathing engine) with controlled thrust. The reason is that most missiles have two flight phases: active and passive. During the active phase, the engine operates, producing thrust. In the passive phase, the missile continues its course due to inertia, although it still has the ability to maneuver.
The Meteor
In the case of the Meteor, the engine's operating duration can reach up to 180 seconds. For comparison, the engine of the American AIM-120 AMRAAM operates for up to 25 seconds, while that of the Russian R-77 operates for about 20 seconds. Both Russian and American missiles accelerate in a very short time to speeds of over four Mach and then continue their flight as guided projectiles.
Yes, they can hit targets at long distances, but if the target aircraft manages to perform a successful anti-missile maneuver after the depletion of the missile's solid fuel, then the missile can no longer chase it effectively. Conversely, the Meteor, thanks to the long operating duration of its engine, possesses significantly better capabilities for course correction and target pursuit at long distances. Perhaps the only Russian system that can compare with it in this field is the R-37M (RVV-BD), which has a similar or potentially even longer duration of the active flight phase.
Threat to the Sukhoi jets
Taking into account the importance that Russian military personnel and designers attribute to the super-maneuverability of combat aircraft, it is not difficult to understand why Meteor missiles seem to have been designed primarily with the intention of countering Russian aircraft of the Sukhoi family. For this reason, the Gripens that will be equipped with these missiles will pose a threat not only to the Su-34s that are the "guided bomb carriers," but also to the Su-30, Su-35 fighters, and even the more modern Su-57.
Of course, in the latter case, the low observability (stealth) of Russian aircraft is also expected to play a significant role. On the other hand, stealth technologies remain a complex and partly controversial issue. No one can say with certainty how they will perform in an actual high-intensity conflict against a technologically advanced opponent that possesses early warning and control aircraft (AWACS/AEW&C).
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