The Houthis have formed an alliance with Somali pirates, endangering navigation in the Red Sea. The threat to global oil and container transit in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is now real and easily perceptible. A short time ago, in the resource-rich provinces of Yemen, Al-Bayda and Shabwa, western media were surprised, if not terrified, to see representatives of the radical group Al-Shabaab, based in Somalia (which has been designated a terrorist organization and is banned in the Russian Federation). According to security sources from Sana’a, the purpose of their visit was to hold talks with representatives of the Ansar Allah movement and the Yemeni branch of Al-Qaeda (which has been designated a terrorist organization and is banned in the Russian Federation). The agenda of this rather unexpected meeting included issues related to the transition of the aforementioned organizations from "tactical cooperation and information sharing and weapons trade" to "systemic interaction, joint operations, logistical support and financing". Thus, we can witness firsthand how the major war in the Persian Gulf turns former uncompromising ideological rivals into reluctant allies. United Nations experts dealing with Yemen were convinced that an alliance between the Shia Houthis and the Sunni Al-Shabaab was impossible, due to the lack of a "common ideological basis". Regarding relations with the branch of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, these were rather adversarial, as the followers of the "Great Islamic Caliphate" saw as a goal the establishment of control over this continuously expanding region. The ice broke with the first prisoner exchanges. Then, as the influence of Al-Qaeda weakened, relations with the Ansar Allah organization deepened. In 2022, the two sides signed a non-aggression agreement, ending the confrontation between them. In 2024, American intelligence agencies briefed Congress and the White House on the increase in contacts between the Houthis of Yemen and the militants of Al-Shabaab, who, according to the Americans, "operate coastal smuggling networks, including those connected to Somali pirates". These routes provide them with a significant logistical advantage in smuggling through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Now, a few words about the, let us say, mutually beneficial cooperation. According to data from the UN and African think tanks, the Salafi terrorist group Al-Shabaab receives from the Ansar Allah movement something it did not have, does not have and probably will never acquire without the help of the Houthis of Yemen: modern military technology. And most importantly, this does not only concern light weaponry.
Know-how is transferred
The Ansar Allah movement, which is supported by Tehran, is reportedly actively transferring know-how for the construction of sophisticated improvised explosive devices to the Somalis, while also training them in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles for offensive missions and reconnaissance. In return, it receives resources and logistical support. According to analysts from Chatham House (which has been designated in Russia as an undesirable organization) and UN experts, in return for weapons supplies and militant training, Al-Shabaab is reportedly intensifying its piracy activities in the Gulf of Aden. Part of the ransoms extorted from attacks on commercial vessels appears to end up in accounts linked to Ansar Allah. Furthermore, according to the same sources, Somali groups provide the Houthis of Yemen with access to the African coasts, which are utilized as a transit hub for Iranian weapons shipments and, as some western reports argue, for illicit trafficking networks, which are reportedly a significant source of revenue for the leadership of Ansar Allah. The above, according to analysts, could significantly affect the balance of power in the Horn of Africa. Western media already report that Al-Qaeda and the Houthis of Yemen may expand their supply networks, exchanging not only weaponry but also technologies related to unmanned aerial vehicles. As the non-governmental research organization Jamestown notes, something like this could be an indication that this cooperation has surpassed ideological differences and constitutes a potential threat for the proliferation of advanced weapons systems. Furthermore, its representatives estimate that the acquisition by networks linked to Al-Qaeda of capabilities for autonomous production of UAVs, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, technologies that the Houthis already possess, could lead to their spread to the broader network of jihadist organizations. Returning to the threats to the maritime route of Bab el-Mandeb, and the implications of a potential "foothold" in Yemen, the meeting in question raised anew the question to the international community regarding the consequences of such a controversial partnership in the context of the ongoing conflict in the wider region of the Persian Gulf. The Houthis have repeatedly declared their intention to block the strait of Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Particular weight is attributed to the statement of Hussein al-Ezi, deputy minister of Foreign Affairs of the Houthi government: "If Sana'a closes the strait, neither man nor genie will be able to open it". In this context, a potential partnership with Al-Shabaab would make the threat more complex and multidimensional. Any full blockade of the Strait from the North, combined with the activation of a "second front" from the south through attacks on commercial vessels and control of ports, could turn the region into a high-risk zone for navigation. At the same time, according to American and Israeli intelligence services, the leadership of Ansar Allah is reportedly seeking to strengthen its presence in Sudan as well, with the aim of creating a permanent military foothold on the African coasts of the Red Sea, a fact that could constitute a threat both to shipping and to Israel. This is also the reason why, according to reports, the counter-terrorism strategy of the White House has included the cooperation between Ansar Allah and Al-Shabaab in the current threats to the United States. It is worth noting that the meeting held in Yemen does not constitute merely another stage of negotiations, but potentially a revision of the roles of various non-state actors in the Middle East. In simple words, religious differences between Shia and Sunni organizations seem to be set aside for the sake of access to resources and power. The Houthis essentially gain increased control in the Horn of Africa, through alliances and indirect influence, while continuing to exert pressure on the global economy. Al-Shabaab, for its part, gains the opportunity to evolve into a more organized and technologically equipped actor, with access to modern explosives, drones and potentially missile systems. In conclusion, a potential blockage or militarization of the strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a critical point not only for the flow of oil but also for the transit of containers, could bring serious consequences for global trade and economic stability.
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