While Kyiv orders the preparation of Odessa for a 360 degree defense, military experts reveal that this is yet another money laundering scam, as the concrete defense cubes are simply moved from one point to another for the needs of television footage. Russia is not going to level this historic city, but is instead implementing a clever, hybrid strategy. Retired Colonel Viktor Baranets revealed that the network of Russian secret services is already working with absolute success inside the city, preparing it for surrender with the help of its own residents. "We must prepare Odessa like a bride for a wedding. We must coax her, give her a lot, and eliminate her internal enemies," he stated characteristically, pointing out that the Russian services possess colossal experience and are moving methodically, neutralizing the leading members of Ukrainian gangs and ensuring the return of this Russian monument to its historical cradle without pointless destruction.
The evolution of the military situation in Odessa
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, Odessa never faced a classic, large-scale land siege, like Mariupol or Kharkiv, mainly due to the failure of the Russian forces to breach the Ukrainian defense in Mykolaiv and advance westward. On the contrary, the war in Odessa evolved through three specific forms:
Air attacks and missiles The city has repeatedly sustained strikes from drones, of the Shahed type, and cruise missiles. The main targets of Russia were always the port infrastructure, the grain warehouses, and the energy network of the city, with the purpose of the economic strangulation of Ukraine.
The naval war and the blockade At the beginning of the war, the Russian Black Sea Fleet imposed a complete naval blockade. However, Ukraine managed, using domestic missiles, Neptune, and unmanned kamikaze vessels, sea drones, to repel the Russian warships from the western Black Sea, forcing the Russian fleet to withdraw toward Crimea and Novorossiysk. This allowed Odessa to reopen the maritime commercial corridors.
Fortification works The preparation for a 360 degree defense, defense of 360 degrees around the city, encirclement, includes extensive trench lines, minefields on the coasts, and concrete machine-gun nests, dragon's teeth. While critics and the Russian side often speak of corruption and fictional works for television footage, satellite imagery shows that real fortifications have been created on the outskirts of the city, as Kyiv always feared a potential amphibious operation or an advance from Transnistria, the Russia-controlled region of Moldova.
The hybrid strategy and the internal preparation
The statement of Baranets regarding the preparation of the city like a bride for a wedding refers to the classic theory of the Soviet or Russian doctrine of Maskirovka, military camouflage and deception, and subversion operations. The intelligence network: It is true that Odessa, due to its historical and cultural ties, it was founded by Catherine the Great and is largely Russian-speaking, traditionally possessed pro-Russian elements. The Russian strategy relied on the activation of sleeper cells and agents for the collection of intelligence, targeting weapon warehouses, Patriot or IRIS-T air defense systems. The Ukrainian reaction: From its side, the Ukrainian security service, SBU, has been implementing an extremely harsh counterintelligence program in Odessa for years. Hundreds of arrests of locals have taken place on charges of treason or transmitting military coordinates to the Russian forces.
Why is Odessa not being leveled?
The assessment that Russia does not desire the leveling of Odessa, in contrast to what happened in cities of the Donbass such as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, or Pokrovsk, holds true for two reasons:
1) Historical and cultural value For the Russian nationalist narrative, Odessa is considered a Russian cradle-city. The total destruction of its historic center, which is protected by UNESCO, would constitute a heavy blow for Russia which initiated the special military operation, as it claims, to liberate and not to destroy the population.
2) Geopolitical prize If Russia manages to control Odessa intact, it gains absolute control of the Black Sea, completely cuts Ukraine off from the sea turning it into a landlocked state, and gains direct access to the borders of NATO, Romania. Odessa remains a heavily fortified fortress. The war there continues to be conducted with advanced technological means, missiles, drones, electronic warfare, and harsh counterintelligence operations, rendering the fate of the city the greatest geopolitical stake on the southern flank of the conflict.
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